Tuesday, 31 December 2019


2019: Through my eyes
Ali Ahmed
Total publications – 88
Themes:
·         Strategic affairs – 38
·         Kashmir – 23
·         Military sociology – 17
·         Indian Muslims – 6
·         Book Reviews - 4

Published in:
·         Book chapter (OUP, Karachi) – 1
·         EPW – 4
·         Antinomies, Russian Academy of Sciences, Ural Branch - 1
·         Kashmir Times – 20
·         The Citizen – 14
·         Moneycontrol.com – 14
·         Mille Gazette – 10
·         India News Stream – 5
·         Newsclick - 4
·         The Book Review - 3
·         Countercurrents.org – 3
·         The Wire – 2
·         South Asian Voices – 2
·         CLAWS – 1
·         Aussie Trishakti – 1
·         Africa Trends, IDSA – 1
·         IDSA expert comments – 1
·         Future Directions International – 1
(Peer reviewed – 12)


Strategic affairs - 38
1.      ‘India’s nuclear doctrine: Stasis or dynamism’ in Naeem Salik (ed.), India’s habituation with the Bomb, Karachi: OUP, 2019, https://oup.com.pk/new-arrivals/india-s-habituation-with-the-bomb.html
2.      15 November 2019, https://idsa.in/africatrends/crisis-management-in-south-sudan-aahmed#.XdEktyj2Ff4.twitter A lesson from crisis management in South Sudan Africa Trends, IDSA, Jan-June 2019
3.      17 November 2019, https://southasianvoices.org/fallout-of-article-370s-withdrawal100-days-on-indian-militarys-false-optimism/ Fallout of Article 370’s Withdrawal in Kashmir: The Indian Military’s False Optimism?
4.      16 September 2019 https://www.moneycontrol.com/news/india/politics-decoding-indias-recent-rhetoric-on-pok-4440211.html Decoding India’s recent rhetoric on PoK
5.      13 September 2019 http://www.kashmirtimes.com/newsdet.aspx?q=94571 For constructive Indian engagement in the Afghanistan endgame
9.      26 July 2019 https://thewire.in/security/kargil-vijay-diwas-indian-army-integrated-battle-groups Kargil Vijay Diwas: 20 Years on, Has The Army Learnt its Lessons?
10.  3 June 2019 http://kashmirtimes.com/newsdet.aspx?q=91323# Event management is no substitute for strategy
13.  24 May 2019 https://www.moneycontrol.com/news/politics/modi-2-0-where-is-indias-pakistan-policy-headed-4015981.html Modi 2.0 | Where is India’s Pakistan policy headed?
14.  21 May 2019 http://epaper.kashmirtimes.in/index.aspx?page=6 Gratis advice for the next National Security Adviser
16.  13 April 2019 https://www.thecitizen.in/index.php/en/NewsDetail/index/6/16705/Peoples-Power-in-Sudan-Throws-Out-Omar-al-Bashir-After-30-Years Peoples Power in Sudan Throws Out Omar al-Bashir After 30 Years
17.  5 April 2019 http://www.kashmirtimes.com/newsdet.aspx?q=89493 The Doval And Hooda Prescriptions Examined
19.  4 April 2019 http://www.milligazette.com/news/16633-will-pakistan-be-happy-if-modi-returns-to-power Will Pakistan be happy if Modi returns to power?
20.  29 March 2019 https://www.indianewsstream.com/kashmir-pakistan-national-security-options-before-next-government/ Pakistan: Post poll national security options before present or next ‘chowkidar’
22.  14 March 2019 https://idsa.in/askanexpert/defensive-offence-and-offensive-defence What is the difference between 'defensive offence' and 'offensive defence'?
23.  11 March 2019 https://www.indianewsstream.com/lessons-learnt-from-iafs-balakot-strike/ Lessons learnt from the Balakot strike
24.  9 March 2019 http://epaper.kashmirtimes.in/index.aspx?page=6 http://kashmirtimes.com/newsdet.aspx?q=88508 Balakot: Divining India’s strategy from its messaging
25.  7 March 2019 http://www.milligazette.com/news/16591-balakot-nailing-lies-in-the-name-of-national-security Balakot: Nailing lies in the name of national security

27.  28 February 2019 https://www.moneycontrol.com/news/india/opinion-india-and-pakistan-must-de-escalate-the-current-crisis-3592331.html India and Pakistan must de-escalate the current crisis

28.  27 February 2019 https://southasianvoices.org/understanding-indias-land-warfare-doctrine/ https://www.globalvillagespace.com/understanding-indias-land-warfare-doctrine/ Understanding India's land warfare doctrine

29.  26 February 2019 https://www.indianewsstream.com/pulwama-the-counter-attack/ 26 Feb Pulwama: The counter attack
30.  25 February 2019 https://www.indianewsstream.com/options-before-india-to-respond-to-the-pulwama-terror-attack/ Options before India to respond to the Pulwama terror attack
32.  22 February 2019 https://www.thecitizen.in/index.php/en/NewsDetail/index/4/16334/Why-There-Has-Been-No-Military-Response-on-Pulwama-So-Far Why There Has Been No Military Response on Pulwama So Far
33.  18 February 2019 http://www.kashmirtimes.com/newsdet.aspx?q=87929 Reminding The Political Class Of Clausewitz's First Injunction
34.  9 February 2019 http://www.kashmirtimes.com/newsdet.aspx?q=87626# The Army's land warfare doctrine
35.  7 February 2019 https://www.thecitizen.in/index.php/en/NewsDetail/index/4/16224/New-Land-Warfare-Doctrine-May-Be-the-Garrulous-Army-Chiefs-Alone  The land warfare doctrine: The army's or that of its Chief?
36.  30 January 2019 http://www.milligazette.com/news/16539-george-fernandes-keeps-his-date-with-gujarat-carnage-martyrs George Fernandes keeps his date with Gujarat carnage martyrs

37.  26 January 2019 http://www.kashmirtimes.com/newsdet.aspx?q=87194 Operation Kabaddi Revealed But Only Partially

38.  22 January 2019 https://www.thecitizen.in/index.php/en/NewsDetail/index/4/16082/What-Do-the-Echoes-of-Operation-Kabaddi-Really-Say What do the echoes of Operation Kabaddi really say

Kashmir - 23

39.  24 December 2019, https://www.moneycontrol.com/news/politics/kashmir-is-in-a-state-of-churn-will-2020-mark-a-new-dawn-4759561.html, Kashmir is in a state of churn. Will 2020 mark a new dawn?

40.  21 December 2019, http://kashmirtimes.com/newsdet.aspx?q=97570, The options conundrum for Kashmiris,

41.  29 November 2019 https://www.epw.in/journal/2019/47/strategic-affairs/approaching-kashmir-through-theoretical-lenses.html Approaching Kashmir through Theoretical Lenses

42.  14 November 2019 http://www.kashmirtimes.com/newsdet.aspx?q=96325# Military consequence management in Jammu and Kashmir

43.  14 November 2019 http://www.kashmirtimes.com/newsdet.aspx?q=96325# Military consequence management in Jammu and Kashmir

44.  17 October 2019 https://www.moneycontrol.com/news/kashmir/politics-how-will-new-delhi-react-to-the-civil-disobedience-in-kashmir-4543111.html How will New Delhi react to the civil disobedience in Kashmir?
45.  1 October 2019 http://kashmirtimes.com/newsdet.aspx?q=95062 Nuclear winter before this winter?
46.  3 September 2019 India’s Kashmir caper has given Pakistan reason for war https://www.thecitizen.in/index.php/en/NewsDetail/index/4/17497/Has-Indias-Kashmir-Caper-Given-Pakistan-Reason-for-War
47.  28 August 2019 http://www.kashmirtimes.com/newsdet.aspx?q=94112 Kashmir: Calling Out Strategic Irrationality

48.  20 August 2019 http://www.futuredirections.org.au/publication/kashmir-and-the-abrogation-of-article-370-an-indian-perspective/ Kashmir and the Abrogation of Article 370: An Indian Perspective

49.  16 August 2019 https://www.moneycontrol.com/news/india/kashmir-india/kashmir-india-has-prepared-well-but-pakistan-is-unlikely-to-remain-quiet-4341811.html Kashmir | India has prepared well, but Pakistan is unlikely to remain quiet

50.  10 August 2019 https://www.indianewsstream.com/kashmir-unsolicited-advice-for-pakistan/ Kashmir: Unsolicited advice for Pakistan

51.  2 August 2019 https://www.moneycontrol.com/news/india/politics-the-improved-situation-in-kashmir-is-but-a-mirage-4280951.html The improved situation in Kashmir is but a mirage

52.  10 July 2019 https://www.moneycontrol.com/news/india/politics-un-likely-to-continue-its-focus-on-indias-kashmir-policy-4188511.html UN likely to continue its focus on India’s Kashmir policy

53.  6 July 2019 http://kashmirtimes.com/newsdet.aspx?q=92436 Kashmir Times Op-ed 6 July 2019 Kashmir: Snatching defeat from the jaws of victory

54.  12 June 2019 http://kashmirtimes.com/newsdet.aspx?q=91653 Kashmir: As The Army Surveys The Next Five Years

55.  7 June 2019 Reframe the Kashmir conflict from terrorism to insurgency https://www.moneycontrol.com/news/india/politics-reframe-the-kashmir-conflict-from-terrorism-to-insurgency-4069191.html

56.  16 May 2019 https://www.moneycontrol.com/news/india/politics-the-bogey-of-islamic-state-in-kashmir-3981691.html The bogey of the Islamic State in Kashmir

57.  10 May 2019 http://www.kashmirtimes.com/newsdet.aspx?q=90607 http://srinagar.kashmirtimes.in/index.aspx?page=6 Kashmir: Radicalisation and what to do about it

58.  8 May 2019 https://www.moneycontrol.com/news/india/politics-takeaways-for-kashmir-from-lok-sabha-polls-2019-3948671.html Kashmir: A first cut analysis of the just-concluded parliamentary elections

59.  2 May 2019 Scholar Warrior, CLAWS, Spring 2019 Options for addressing the Kashmir issue

60.  4 April 2019 https://www.moneycontrol.com/news/business/opinion-the-divergent-prescriptions-for-kashmir-3761261.html The divergent prescriptions for Kashmir

61.  22 March 2019 https://www.moneycontrol.com/news/india/opinion-can-shah-faesal-bring-the-winds-of-political-change-to-kashmir-3680971.html Can Shah Faesal bring the winds of political change to Kashmir?


Military sociology - 17
62.  Right Wing Ascendance in India and the Politicisation of India’s Military, Antinomies, 19 (4), http://yearbook.uran.ru/en/archive
63.  27 December 2019, https://www.newsclick.in/Gen-Rawat-Political-Statements-His-Swan-Song, Why Gen Rawat’s Political Statements Should be His Swan Song
64.  27 December 2019, http://kashmirtimes.com/newsdet.aspx?q=97739 Welcoming The New Army Chief
66.  27 September 2019 National Defence Academy and Societal Representativeness Aussie Trishakti, 2019, Vol 1, No 3, October
67.  24 September 2019 https://www.newsclick.in/Armed-Forces-India-Birender-Singh-Dhanoa-Rafale-LOC Explaining the military’s new found penchant for political partisanship
69.  12 September 2019 http://www.milligazette.com/news/16793-cautioning-the-indian-military-against-being-politically-gullible Cautioning the military against being politically gullible 
70.  17 August 2019 https://www.newsclick.in/rewarding-army-chief-political-assistance Rewarding Army Chief for Political Assistance?
72.  9 August 2019 http://kashmirtimes.com/newsdet.aspx?q=93488# The military’s ethical imperative in the here and now
73.  25 July 2019 Salute, April-May 2019 issue https://salute.co.in/consequences-of-operational-decisions/ Consequences of operational decisions
74.  26 June 2019 http://www.kashmirtimes.com/newsdet.aspx?q=92061 At The Doorstep Of Indian Military Politicization
76.  12 June 2019 http://www.milligazette.com/news/16701-questioning-afresh-indian-militarys-social-representativeness Questioning afresh Indian military’s social representativeness
78.  19 December 2019 https://countercurrents.org/2019/12/the-agenda-for-the-new-chief Agenda for the new chief
Indian Muslims - 6

79.  26 December 2019, http://www.milligazette.com/news/16848-india-three-scenarios-out-to-2030#disqus_thread, India: three scenarios out to 2030

80.  17 December 2019 https://www.thecitizen.in/index.php/en/NewsDetail/index/4/18021/CAA-NRC-Those-Who-Voted-for-this-Regime-Need-to-Wake-Up - CAA-NRC: Those who voted for this regime need to wake up

82.  24 May 2019 http://www.milligazette.com/news/16687-modi-2-0-indian-muslim-survival-kit Modi 2.0: Indian Muslim survival kit
83.  23 February 2019 http://www.milligazette.com/news/16569-consequences-for-indias-minority-of-the-gathering-war-clouds-after-pulwama Consequences for India’s minority of the gathering war clouds after Pulwama
84.  12 January 2019 http://www.milligazette.com/news/16526-the-minority-security-problematic The minority security problematic
Book Review - 4

85.  6 December 2019 https://thebookreviewindia.org/art-of-new-age-war/ Army Of None: Autonomous Weapons And The Future Of War By Paul Scharre W. Norton & Company, 2018
86.  10 June 2019 The Book Review https://thebookreviewindia.org/recontextualizing-the-escalation-debate/ Line On Fire: Ceasefire Violations And India-Pakistan Escalation Dynamics by Happymon Jacob, Oxford University Press, New Delhi
87.  1 February 2019 https://thewire.in/books/book-review-the-dangers-of-media-fanned-nationalism Happymon Jacob, Line on Fire: Ceasefire violations and India-Pakistan escalation dynamics, New Delhi: Oxford University Press, 2019.

88.  8 January 2019 http://thebookreviewindia.org/illuminating-past-patterns-and-future-challenges/ The Most Dangerous Place: A History Of The United States In South Asia By Srinath Raghavan, Penguin Random House, Gurgaon, India



Friday, 27 December 2019

https://www.newsclick.in/Gen-Rawat-Political-Statements-His-Swan-Song


Why Gen Rawat’s Political Statements Should be His Swan Song



From General Rawat’s latest verbal assault on liberal sensibilities, the answer to the question in the title is unclear. He is reported to have made adverse observations on the leadership of the counter Citizenship Amendment Act agitations, intoning that resort to violence and arson is an inappropriate direction for leaders to take their followers. He was presumably referring to student and political leaders who are spear heading the agitations across the country. He has received across the board criticism for his pains.
Since this is not the first foray by the general into politics, it bears wondering as to where his gumption comes from. Clearly he has a sense of impunity that can only be result of his being hand in glove with his civilian masters. This is borne out by his care in always speaking in their favour, be it in his earlier interventions on Kashmir related issues or, once famously, his take on a political party in Assam. Whether he exercises his own volition or he is his master’s voice is moot, since both possibilities are calamitous. If the former, then it is military meddling in politics and, if the latter it is politicisation of the military.
In the present case, there may be more pressing personal reason. He may be reminding powers that be that he is still around to take over as the first Chief of Defence Staff (CDS). Now if only they would sign off over the next four days before he retires on the appointment shortlist being shepherded through the bureaucracy by his ethnic kin, the national security adviser, Ajit Doval.
Alternatively, the explanation could well be simpler: he is habituated to putting his foot in the mouth. Doing so at this juncture only helps him land a sinecure in case he misses the CDS boat. His predecessor managed an ambassadorship in a nondescript island that would otherwise have been tenanted by a joint secretary level diplomat. Bipin Rawat’s ingratiating himself with the regime by periodic parochial political statements through his three years as head of the army positions him well for a larger, if inconsequential country.
An empathetic explanation is that he has been ordered to do so, and, disciplined soldier that he is, has only discharged his obligation of obedience to his civilian masters. Since internal security is part of the military’s remit as its secondary responsibility, he has a duty to preempt its worsening. The frontline internal security force, its paramilitary, is stuck in Kashmir. The armed police are drawing flak for being obviously communal. The military too hit the streets early on in flag marches in the North East.
In case the situation deteriorates further, and there is no guarantee it won’t in light of the ruling party stakes in the West Bengal elections coming up next year, then the army may willy nilly be sucked in. An early indicator of this apprehension was statement of the eastern army commander extolling the Citizenship Amendment Act as yet another instance of hard-nosed decision making by this regime. His headquarters at Kolkata would then be the hub for firefighting in case West Bengal were to go down the path of agitations.
Precedence has it that India has been very sensitive to security in West Bengal. Its intervention, initially by the intelligence and military in a proxy war and then by the military in an ostensibly humanitarian intervention in East Bengal, was triggered inter alia by the fear that unsettled conditions in Bengal could be exacerbated by Maoists, who were rather active then. Even today, Maoists are close at hand in the jungles, having gotten as close as Junglemahal as recently as early this decade. Besides, agitations involving Muslims could witness jihadi penetration. A jihaid-Maoist combine could prove the proverbial perfect storm.
Therefore, preemptive discrediting of the agitations before they intensify and spread may have been considered necessary. This is a possible rationale for the army chief to have his say. Whats App University has already put out its latest research that Bangladeshi Muslim illegal immigrants trooped up to Lucknow clandestinely and are responsible for the mayhem that prompted Ajay Mohan Bisht, aka Yogi Adityanath, to take tough action.
Arguably, this is to stretch the security rationale somewhat. But without such a sympathetic stretch it is implausible that the army chief has any role in commenting on the counter CAA agitations currently ongoing. No wonder his latest mouthings have drawn swift umbrage of the doyen of the military old guard, Admiral Ramdas. 
This implies a mundane explanation is more apt. The army chief is at his old game of political partisanship. The first salvo in this was fired off, as mentioned, by the general in Kolkata. Incidentally, the general in Kolkata is a regimental mate of the army chief. He was allowed to shoot his mouth off earlier too, having at election time intervened to back the ruling party’s case that there were no surgical strikes before the post Uri terror attack surgical strikes. He was then the military operations head. This bit of partisanship on his part in effect bust the Congress’ claim that it had conducted six such strikes in its time at the helm.
The controversy then went on to involve the northern army commander discrediting his predecessor at Udhampur, retired general Hooda. Since Hooda had undertaken to write up the Congress’ security doctrine, that informed its manifesto, he was seen as proximate to the Congress who needed to then be taken down. The government deployed the northern army commander for the errand, who dutifully, no doubt under orders from his chief, stepped up.
The foregoing shows up three generals as making political interventions in favour of the ruling party: the army chief and two army commanders. The army chief has been front runner for CDS post. The northern army commander was earlier in the lineup for army chief position, but has since been outpointed by the front runner, Naravane. Since the parameters for the CDS post include deep selection from among the senior three star brass from all three services, the northern army commander has his hat in the ring. Perhaps the eastern army commander also fancies his chances, since while the post has been sanctioned the incumbent has not been named as yet.
It is of a piece with the manner of roll out of its decisions by this regime. Recall the lines after demonetization, the commercial chaos after the GST implementation, the lock down in Kashmir after its demotion to a Delhi administered territory and the easily anticipated challenge met by CAA. More pertinently, note that there was no evidence of success at Balakot. Similarly there was no evidence of a downed F-16 to show after the Pakistani counter to Balakot. Instead, there were two Indian aircraft wreckages – one Mig 21 and a helicopter. Given this record of tripping up, it cannot but be expected to slip up on its CDS rollout.
Prime Minister took to stage at the Red Fort to announce the position. Since the parameters were not quite drawn up by then, the hard home work only got down since. This enabled the brass to get into a competition to show off their respective competence for the job. The now retired air chief was an early bird in this game in unnecessarily during election time trying to draw attention away from the procedural short cuts taken by the regime in its handling of the Rafale purchase. He fully well knew that the controversy had nothing to do with the efficacy of the Rafale but tricky conduits of campaign funding. That only the silent service, the Navy, has stayed away, aware that the odds were stacked against an admiral landing as the first CDS incumbent, only serves to prove the other contenders had CDS in their sights.
This unseemly advertisement by members of the brass of their amenability to the regime’s political and ideological position is fallout of the unnecessarily hasty announcement at Red Fort. Instead, the home work done – the mandate making was wrapped up last week with the CDS to head a department of military affairs in the defence ministry – the decision could well have waited for another grandstanding opportunity for the prime minister, perhaps till next Republic Day. 
The CDS rollout has resulted in debasing of the uniform and the credibility that goes with it. The CDS thus can only have an inauspicious beginning. If any of the current day front runners are finally appointed, each could easily be viewed as a compromised choice, and especially so if it is General Bipin Rawat. On this count, it is best that his latest political intervention be taken as his swan song, lest the nation have to suffer another three years of his addiction to partisanship.



http://www.kashmirtimes.com/newsdet.aspx?q=97739

Welcoming the new army chief

One file is likely to go through the bureaucratic mill rather quickly over this week. Ajit Doval, no stranger in this part of India for his dynamism, will likely pilot the file of his ethnic kin, General Bipin Rawat – to whom he owes much for implementing his Kashmir policy with gusto – for as the first chief of defence staff (CDS). The ticker on television at the time of writing has it that the government has cleared the mandate of the CDS. All that remains is to reward Bipin Rawat for his services in Operational All Out that set teh stage for Amit Shah’s August constitutional initiative on Kashmir by allowing Rawat another two years to loyally serve the regime.
To its credit, however, the government has done well to appoint Lt Gen MM Naravane as the new army chief, though the post of chief of defence staff (CDS) that was widely expected to be announced simultaneously continues without its first incumbent. One good thing about Naravane’s elevation is that it blocks Lt Gen Ranbir Singh from the position, unless down-the-line the government makes another change when it gets round to appointing the CDS – if Rawat does not make the cut.
It is not unknown for an incumbent chief to get an extension. Gen GG Bewoor’s extension is precedent. It allowed Indira Gandhi to set the popular and strong Lt Gen Prem Bhagat to pasture in the Damodar Valley in order to usher in Lt Gen ‘Tappy’ Raina, to cap off her kitchen cabinet of Kashmiri Pandits. In the event, Raina disappointed her by steering the army off the emergency. So Rawats chances have not dimmed as yet.
But then Rawat had competition, from his own northern army commander, Lt Gen Ranbir Singh. Singh also went out his way to establish his credentials on amenability with the government. He engaged in two public spats – albeit via the media – with his predecessor in his appointment, retired Lt Gen DS Hooda. The issue they indirectly faced off over was whether surgical strikes after the Uri terror attack were an innovation or were they merely an extension of what the army had been mounting all through the preceding decade and half along the Line of Control (LC).
The first exchange between the two generals was in wake of Hooda’s position taken at the last edition of the annual military literature festival at Chandigarh last year when he opined that the hype surrounding the surgical strikes was unwarranted. He was referring perhaps to the government only two months prior indulging in a bit of self-congratulations when starting off on the run up to national elections the following year when it observed the second anniversary of the surgical strikes as the Parakram Parv.
The second round of disagreement between the two was just as elections drew to close. The military operations had untimely from an elections point of view claimed, apropos nothing in particular, that the surgical strike was a unique event. Hooda had by then been contracted by the Congress party to write up a national security doctrine for them that informed the security part of their manifesto. The army’s raising of the matter yet again at election time was as if to discredit Hooda and his liberal doctrinal take, though even Hooda’s doctrine endorsed surgical strikes as an arrow in India’s deterrent quiver. Ranbir Singh, yet again unnecessarily and with eminently questionable timing, waded in by backing his military operations colleagues. For his pains, Ranbir Singh remains in the higher appointment race, if not as army chief for now, then as CDS, since CDS is open to deep selection from the ranks of three-star brass.  
The good thing about Naravane’s appointment is that both Rawat and Ranbir Singh would no longer be able to impact directly the army’s apolitical culture. Both have gone out of their way to signal political like-mindedness to the government, which has compromised the army’s long-standing apolitical ethic. Even if Naravane shares the world view of the government, he has been discerning in his speech so far and on that account is a welcome change from the verbosity – if not bombast – of his immediate predecessor.
The only known occasion Naravane signaled his acceptability for the government was when he was appointed vice chief from his army commander post at Kolkata, seen as a step up to being front runner for taking over as next chief. He had said that India’s transgressions of the Line of Actual Control with China were twice as many as Chinese incursions up to their line of territorial claims.
Since the mainstream media keeps up a lament over Chinese incursions, it was a useful addition to open domain knowledge that India was way ahead of the Chinese. Perhaps, Naravane was signaling that the eastern army had not slept on his watch, making it as active – even if less visible - in staring the stronger foe, the Chinese, as Ranbir Singh’s northern army tackling the Kashmiri insurgency. This was to the government’s credit since it had political dividend in projecting the government being strong on defence in first place and keeping China at bay with the Doklam stand-off as centerpiece.
As an aside, it bears reflection that none of the generals in tactical level command connected to Doklam made it to next rank. Does this mean India blundered into the stand-off and muddled through before being bailed out by deft diplomatic footwork by S Jaishankar, then foreign secretary, and Mandarin expert, VK Gokhale, the current one? This explains in part Modi’s craven call on the Chinese strong man at Wuhan later and the elevation of firefighter, Jaishankar, who since retired, to head the ministry. This perhaps explains the hyper-alertness of Naravane’s army, signified by double the number of transgressions of the LAC, movements up to India’s claim line on the Chinese side, in order to recreate conventional deterrence post-Doklam.
More significantly from the discussion on Naravane’s suitability from a civil-military relations point of view, the general early on in Modi’s term, speaking at a seminar at Panjab University, Chandigarh, as then head of the army’s training command, reiterated the secular credentials of the country as among its core values. This echoed the section on values underpinning national security and military doctrine that find mention in the joint doctrine of 2017. This perhaps led to his continuing to cool his heels in Shimla even has his junior Ranbir Singh sped off to command the prestigious and India’s largest northern army. Naravane’s move later to head a field army out of Kolkata seemingly rehabilitated him, after partial eclipse by Ranbir Singh, in the race for next chief.
Such moves are significant, since the last time a junior skipped the queue for field army was with Bipin Rawat taking over southern army even as his senior, the first Muslim general in a quarter century to reach army commander rank, Lt Gen PM Hariz, continued in Shimla. In the event, Rawat outpointed both Hariz and the then frontrunner, Lt Gen Praveen Bakshi.
The other good thing from Naravane’s appointment is that the government appears to have got over its Pakistan and Kashmir fixation. When it appointed Rawat to head the army, it had let on that his expertise was required for ending the proxy war and insurgency in Kashmir. Perhaps it believes that extant violence indices indicate that it has managed to end the proxy war and insurgency. It can now turn to the more significant rival, China. It is not as if Naravane is a spring chicken when it comes to counter insurgency, having commanded a battalion of the Rashtriya Rifles, or against Pakistan, having headed a strike corps. However, his expertise is on the China front, with stints as defence attaché in Myanmar and brigade and division command in the north east.
This will help India get over its Kashmir obsession, that would have otherwise continued had Ranbir Singh, who oversaw the recent lockdown, taken over instead. That Rawat and Ranbir Singh did not provide the right military input India’s misconceived Kashmir and Pakistan policies is evident from the constitutional initiative in early August. India flirted with a war that could potentially go nuclear, an unwarranted price to pay for the ruling party to indulge its ideological agenda.
Civil-military relations on even keel require military advice uncompromised by ideological convergence. It is not for a military head to tell the government what it wishes to hear. That Kashmir will stay as a head ache – on account of India’s missteps and his predecessor’s pliability – will keep Naravane to the till in Kashmir.
At the mentioned seminar, Naravane called out the lack of traction of the political track with Pakistan, despite the reactivation of the LC. He virtually predicted the escalation that resulted and the death of prospects of a negotiated return to a pre-existing ceasefire. Now he is better positioned to act on his instinct. He can convey the same piece of advice. Having seen that a hard-nosed policy has limited utility, the government could reverse course. Could it be that its appointment of Naravane indicates a budding policy shift?
At the Panjab University seminar, which was on Pakistan, he drew analogy from Pakistan's case, saying, "This (Pakistani praetorianism) is in stark contrast to India where the armed forces owe allegiance to the Constitution, and not to any party, person or religion." He would do well to keep his words to the fore. The state of civil-military relations he inherits is best illustrated by the recent statement by his successor in Kolkata, Lt Gen Anil Chauhan, praising the government’s Citizenship Amendment Act as another instance of hard decision making on its part.
Kolkata oversees the areas that are likely to see most instability from this Act and its follow on legislation, on the National Register of Citizens. With unrest bound to proceed till next end decade occasioned by following through with this ideological tilting at the windmills by the government, the military may well give up any thought of measuring up to the China threat with its hinterland beset by agitations over detentions camps into the decade. As a first step he may have to rein in Chauhan, incidentally, the military operations head who was seconded by Ranbir Singh in the above mentioned second tiff with Hooda.
By this yardstick, Naravane is the right man and at the right time for the job. Now if he will only advise the government - prone acting hastily on its ideological and parochial political compulsions – to keep ideology from contaminating strategy.



Thursday, 26 December 2019

India: three scenarios out to 2030



The Kashmirisation of India, a phrase coined by Pratap Bhanu Mehta, is well underway. The mayhem by the police on the campus of Jamia Millia Islamia finally brought home to Indians in the mainland what Kashmiris might be undergoing on a routine basis, flooded as Kashmir has been with security forces for some thirty years. Alternatively, from events in Uttar Pradesh, with its chief minister out to emulate the prime minister in his initial days in the sun, it could be well be that Gujratification instead. The prime minister complimented the police for its handling of the unrest that resulted in over-a-score deaths. Taking inspiration from the approach to rule of law in Kashmir and Gujarat, three possible scenarios lie ahead for India.
The first is the visualization by the Hindutva-vadis in which they gain their ends through polarisation. The second is a contested one, in which the Hindutva rampage is checked by democratic means resulting in one-sided violence. The third is a benign one in which the largely Hindu support base of the right wing rethinks its ways, resulting in democratic displacement of the regime at the next elections.
Scenario 1 - A Hindutva triumph
The Bhartiya Janata Party’s eagerness to have a Congress-mukt Bharat owes in part to its reframing of the idea of India in saffron colours. It is also to defang the opposition, whereby there is no political fight-back to its Hindutva project. The reconfiguring of the environs of the central vista along the Rajpath is symbolic of the change to be brought about by the 75th anniversary of the Republic and the centenary year of the mother ship, the Rashtriya Swayamsevak Sangh, both in quick succession.
With most institutions (including – to its critics - the judiciary) already defanged and netted, a definition of majoritarian democracy will be deployed to justify further depredations such as the onrushing nationwide National Register of Citizens (NRC).  The vulnerable and defenceless minority will only be further trampled down. If the Citizenship Amendment Act (CAA) faces such ruthless implementation, what might be the rigour with which the NRC Citizens shall unfold? With the articulate and aware segment of the community - its student cohort - disarmed through ruthless means, the defences of the multiple Muslim communities clustered around the country will be inexorably breached. The final knocks administered would set in a flood of ghar vapsi, the choice being detention centers or a return to the Hindu fold. Eventually, quite like Andalusia is without memory of the Moors – which in the Hindutva imagination is a model for India - India too would be free of the blood of invaders of the last millennium.
A minority community divided within and unable to protect its pockets of habitation across the country will be unable to answer the call for peaceful non-cooperation against the NRC. There are several reports of Muslim readying their documents to present, preparing for the worst. The saffron tide shall enhance to tsunami by several gimmicks of the ‘triple talaq’ variety as the Uniform Civil Code, restriction to prayer venues and methods, sporting of identity markers etc. The ‘Go to Pakistan’ will currency with the argument that since India offers sanctuary for persecuted non-Muslim minorities from its Muslim neighbours, Muslim neighbours could do the same to Indian Muslims.
Scenario 2 – Hindutva contested
A contested ascendance of Hindutva has the possibility of going either way, with the degradation of Hindutva being as probable as its displacement. To preempt this, Hindutva minders may resort to the patented Chanakyan tactics of subterfuge, dissimulation, divide and rule, strong-arm policing, rationalization, propaganda, managing of the external environment, inducement within etc. Ahead it can be imagined that there would be instances of terror incidents of uncertain provenance, including bombings, to enable a security blanket to be put in place before the rollout of the NRC.
If the CAA launch has been greeted with such angst, the NRC aftermath will likely be more volatile, necessitating anticipatory measures of an escalated order on part of the state. Tried and tested ‘black operations’ will be back in use. The dividend for Hindutva perpetrators has precedence, including possible elevation to parliament as compensation for their pain and risk run. The energy on display on streets over the past few days after Mr. Shah rung up the curtains on the CAA-NRC in parliament indicates that Muslims may be less than accommodating to the one-sided brutalisation. There could be alliances forged in the struggle between the underclass, including a Muslim-Dalit one, symbolized by the firebrand leader of Bhim Army turning up at the steps of Jama Masjid.
This foregrounding of security would help the regime with diverting attention from a tanking economy, making for a self-reinforcing loop. The prime minister implied as much in his campaign speech in Dumka, Jharkhand, when he referred to arsonists in clothes making them easily identifiable as Muslims steeling his determination to follow through with the two-punch combo: CAA-NRC. A tactical pull back followed with Modi denying any thought of NRC, even though his government pushed through the NRC by the backdoor by doubling the budget for the National Population Register.
Authoritarianism may deepen and make academic the distinction between fascism and the complexion of the regime. However, as the counter CAA-NRC agitation shows, this is not a Muslim-only show. Most are out to defend the Constitution. The non-cooperation strategy can be expected to kick-in, if it does not cause a dent to the ruling party’s fortunes in the next elections, any repression could invite backlash. That national security miinders are not unmindful of this is evident from Modi’s reference to ‘urban Naxals’ at Ram Lila Maidan, a scaremongering on Maoists-at-the-wings set to grow if the repression-alieanation-backlash cycle takes off.
Scenario 3 – Benign exit of Hindutva
Neither of the two scenarios above are edifying for a secular democratic republic, as being noted in most capitals round the world. This should brighten prospects for the third scenario: of a democratic displacement of the Modi-Shah combine at the next elections. There are four years for the electorate to get its act together. The prospects have brightened with the set back to the ruling party in Maharashtra and Jharkhand. Returns from recent elections suggest diminishing marginal returns for the ruling party’s tactics of polarisation. The post election farce in Raj Bhawan Mumbai makes it possible to outflank them even at their Kautilyan best. If they are administered a defeat in West Bengal and Delhi, It would keep India safe from an authoritarian turn. However, this hopeful moment can prove as chimerical as that at the Delhi and Bihar elections in Modi’s last term, since the Modi-Shah-Doval combine can pull a Balakot act from its electoral hat any time.
The electoral strategy foregrounding the state of the economy, unemployment, farmer distress, state pullout from education and health etc was undercut by Balakot last time. Communalism and manufactured national security concerns remain handy for the regime. A worsening economy can well be blamed on deteriorating security. However, in this scenario, Hindu consolidation into a vote bank proves a chimera. Modi’s antics around the coming up, through this term, of the Ram temple at Ayodhya draw a blank with his development constituency. It’s very first promise of the current tenure of a $5 trillion economy has already fallen flat. The middle classes desert Modi for betraying his development pledges and making India look small on the world stage due to demise of secularism and democratic credentials on his watch. 
What next?
The juncture of Muslims expressing their reservations across India on a matter of community interest after a quarter century is pregnant with possibilities. The threat posed by the regime’s policies privileging its ideology over national interest is the primary national security threat and must be securitized by being recognized as such. The counter that its policies then instigate thus cannot instead be vilified as the significant national security concern. In fact, the counter must be seen as preserving the nation and state from a majoritarian take over.
Which scenario emerges as a result would depend on how the Muslims take forward the counter CAA agitation in face of the regime’s covert sabotage and vilification of the same. Muslims standing up to the regime to preserve the republic could over time help the Hindu brethren shed their blinkers. While Modi-believers cannot be expected to reform, the Hindus who voted for Modi for his development promises have now seen through his game. The Gujarat model is not so much in terms of Gujarat’s economic gains under Modi as much as its manner of authoritarian rule and policing extended to rest of India.  Muslims then, with students - and women students at that – at the vanguard, can emerge as the heroes of the second struggle for freedom, this time from an authoritarian and majoritarian threat to liberal, secular democracy.






Wednesday, 25 December 2019


The Ali Oeuvre:
National security this century

https://www.dropbox.com/s/socevdjjm9bdkbu/The%20Ali%20Oeuvre.pdf?dl=0

Introduction
I was fortunate to arrive in Delhi as a young captain when India turned a corner at the end of the Cold War. My five years as an infantry man till then had opened up the tactical level. I had already gained an early introduction to the operational level on holidays in Kashmir, where a rebellion had broken out just then and had caught my family in its vortex. In Delhi, from my back row vantage in seminar rooms, I had a ring side view of strategic debates and managed a glimpse of the strategic level.
I witnessed old verities being abandoned and a new path forged. Thus, as with global history, this century can be taken as beginning a decade earlier with the end of the Cold War. The principal political shift was in cultural nationalism going from being incipient at the fall of the Babri Masjid to entrenchment. The right wing busily consolidated its sway over domestic politics. Its influence on national security was subtle initially as India’s upward economic trajectory - in part - hid revivalism as another impetus to its great power quest.
Even as history marched on, I took time out to acquire an education on the side in a sabbatical. This made for a well-spent subsequent decade in the military in which I participated in the internal debates by writing for professional publications. Freshly back from learning about military sociology, among other things, I watched as the ideological wares of the right wing acquire adherents within the military. The imprint of cultural nationalism was evident on both strategic and organizational culture.
My initial encounter with this was on the day when suddenly I espied a new layout in the Valmiki Library at the Defence Services Staff College (DSSC), Wellington. I was a regular library visitor and was surprised to see a statue of the Hindu goddess of learning gracing the library one day. I dashed off an article for the Trishul, the journal of the DSSC, pointing out what I thought was a step away from the military’s secular ethos. For my pains, I was marched up to the chief instructor for being political, whereas to me the appearance of the statue was evidence of a step away also from its apolitical ethic against which the military needed to be cautioned. The senior instructor who marched me up can be seen in his retirement on google garlanding the statue of right wing icon BS Moonje. The then commandant of DSSC has since written a book that is in most military libraries that talks of air planes in ancient India.
I have since - subconsciously for most part - traced the rise of cultural nationalism. I recorded this intermittently, taking pains to apprise editors of the baleful imprint of right wing trope in military journals. Among other issues I dwell on, my writings provide a cultural explanation for the developments in Indian security over this century. I was an early bird in reckoning an attempt at right wing hegemony that rightly espied the security field as an easy conduit. The inevitable impact of this change in domestic political culture on strategic and military culture is a story that needs being told. I retrospectively notice that I have done so – explicitly at times and unwarily at others - in my writings.
The thread linking these writings is the liberal perspective on use of force in national security matters. It is clear over the past few years of a right wing regime in power that a pronounced reset of India is underway. A retrospective of my writings throws up several instances my cautioning against such a pass. I think that this prescience is the key to my work. Though voluminous, the corpus is an original perspective on South Asian security since it largely – and singularly at that since there are no other competing works on this - dwells on the influence of political Hinduism on national security.
This is a minority viewpoint in more than the usual way of interpreting ‘minority’. While I bear a Muslim name and that identity did I reckon in part influence my perspective, the ‘minority’ viewpoint I champion is the liberal one on national security. It has required investment of time, resources and energy to challenge the prevailing conservative-realist paradigm. In the context of the times, I like to believe that it took some gumption.
Since the corpus covers a vast terrain both in time and scope, I undertake a summary here. Besides the underlying theme of the work mentioned, the body of work is a useful record of the military and Indian strategic affairs over the last quarter century for students, practitioners, attentive public and academics to peruse. The published work earned me a doctorate – my second - from Cambridge University under its Special Regulations. I assume on that account that my work might interest a wider audience. The presentation here is to attempt reach it. This is hopefully timely in light of what I believe to be dire straits into which India is headed under this regime.   
An intellectual journey
At various times in my professional life of over three decades I have been a military man, an academic and an international civil servant. These exposures have contributed to my thinking on strategic affairs and peace studies related questions. I began my writing career, that was coextensive with my professional engagement, over the past quarter century as an infantry officer in the Indian army. Immersing myself in the academia after premature retirement from the army, I was able to contribute to the discourse as part of Delhi’s strategic community. Alongside, I worked towards a doctoral degree in international politics from Jawaharlal Nehru University.  
A perusal of the collected works comprising close to a 1000 published pieces of varying length, over 4000 pages and some two million words, needs summarizing. The aim is to bring out the underlying unity to the whole. The work has been informed by the peculiar and unique vantage points in my journey. My academic background has enriched the reflection, distinguishing my work from that of other practitioners in that it is a combination of learning and experience. The analytical tools acquired by me while at the DSSC, at the military intelligence course, at the New Delhi think tank and as a UN political analyst with its mission analysis qualification, have been put to good use.
A quarter century of extensive engagement with the strategic discussion in India finds expression in the collection. Not only did I feed into the discussion, but my thinking was enhanced by it. My writings enabled the strategic discussion (if not cacophony) to be taken further and in the dissemination of the content to an attentive audience, initially within the military, and over the past decade - after I left the military - to an interested public through writing on the web and compiling the collections in two blogs: www.ali-writings.blogspot.in and http://subcontinentalmusings.blogspot.com/.
In the period, India emerged as a reckonable power, with an expanding economic and strategic footprint. There was a growing interest in matters of national security among the educated, middle classes. Consequently, there was much to engage with and write about, particularly off the mainstream track. My contributions are at the interstices of international relations, strategy, military sociology and the political backdrop to internal security.
Areas covered
Military sociology:
An aspect of India’s politics that caught my attention early – as mentioned - was the rise of the right wing in national politics. I concentrated on the implications for national security and regional strategic affairs. Having studied civil-military relations at the master’s level, I was able to see the impact of the ideology on the military. While the Indian military is known as a professional, apolitical and secular force, I was able to trace the manner the change in national politics was influencing the military. This is a consistent theme in my writings on the Indian military over the past quarter century.
While within service, I consistently pointed out to editors of in-service journals the trickling in of right-wing ideas into the publications, and thereby into the military mind. This phenomenon has acquired a magnitude lately. My writings covering this aspect are perhaps the singular source on this phenomenon in India, and on that are of interest in military sociology.
They expand the horizons of military sociology that usually restricts itself to the study of the power of military over national politics in the form of praetorianism. What I bring out is the reverse, on how forces in politics seek to control the military through expansion of their reach into and within the military, termed subjective civilian control. Military professionalism is imbued with the cultural nationalist ethos of the ruling political formation, the ruling party and its support base in far-right cultural and political formations.
Minority security:
After leaving the military, I gained a measure on the emergence to respectability in national politics of right wing views. There was a concerted assault on India’s largest minority – and incidentally the world’s largest numerical minority - India’s Muslims. As a member of this community, I have - as with other Indian Muslims in the middle classes (including cultural and non-practising Muslims) and professions - been concerned by implications of majoritarianism for the minority.
I have in my writings taken a security-centric view, covering a gap in the discussion since very few in the strategic community are Muslims. The theme I tackle is the rise of Hindutva – cultural nationalism – in India is not without costs for India’s plurality, democratic ethos and secularism. I concentrate on the implications on the security of Muslim communities.
Strategy:
Further, I have reflected on how the right-wing penetration upsets rational strategy making and choices. I looked at how and why a secure and powerful state such as India behaves like an insecure, paranoid one. India has shifted its strategic posture towards greater assertiveness of its growing power over the past decade and half. It appears caught up in a security dilemma with its neighbours, with neighbours reacting to its security actions.
One arena of my particular interest in which this action-reaction is found reflected in is of security doctrines: strategic, nuclear, conventional and sub-conventional. I have extensively dealt with doctrinal matters, making for the distinctiveness of my work in India’s strategic community.
Having been a practitioner once, I participated in counter insurgency operations and conventional war exercises. I acquired a perspective on nuclear strategy at the two universities in UK. I was thus able to appraise the inter-linkages between the three strategic levels – subconventional, conventional and nuclear – and, link this to the grand strategic and political levels. My strategic work, included in the compilations, is on the potentially dangerous doctrinal inter-linkages between the two regional rivals, India and Pakistan, in the nuclear age.
Of some consequence in the strategic debate has been my doctoral dissertation at JNU on limited war in South Asia. My doctoral thesis titled, ‘India’s Limited War doctrine: Structural, Political and Organisational factors’ culminated in a book India’s Doctrine Puzzle: Limiting War in South Asia. It covered the Cold Start doctrine, the doctrinal shift in India towards a proactive strategy. The dissertation culminated in a well-received book, India’s doctrine puzzle: Limiting war in South Asia (Routledge 2014). The research and the book were done at a time when I was advantaged by being in the rooms where the doctrinal shift underway was often discussed. I dwelt on the implications of shift in conventional level on the nuclear level. 
Military doctrines:
My engagement with doctrines goes back to my Master’s dissertation in London on peacekeeping doctrine. In the mid-nineties, peacekeeping had spiked with the end of the Cold War. Doctrine required catching up with the outbreak of conflicts as Cold War stability dissolved across Africa, South East Asia and Balkans. As a young military officer of an army extensively engaged with peacekeeping and student, I was thus an early inductee into doctrinal thinking.
Back in India, the army was grappling with the advent of the nuclear age in South Asia in the two back-to-back nuclear tests in Pokhran and Chagai in May 1998. India brought out a nuclear doctrine. I examined its implications for the conventional doctrine, arguing for the applicability of limited war doctrine in South Asia. India’s conventional war doctrine at the turn of the century was modeled on a total war scenario, in which three offensive strike corps poised to knock out the adversary and capture territory for post-conflict bargaining. I found this was anachronistic in the nuclear age.
My two monographs at IDSA captured this shift, along with my book. I was in the midst of the doctrinal effervescence in India, in which the armed forces put out respective doctrines. Due to a peculiarity of India’s nuclear quest, the military had been left out of the nuclear loop. Thus, its conventional doctrine was put out in a vacuum of strategic guidance. I took on the role of stitching the two levels – nuclear and conventional – together and hopefully made an original contribution to Indian strategic thinking.
Nuclear doctrine:
The writings dealing with the conventional-nuclear interface were informed by a liberal perspective. I found myself constantly at odds with the realist-conservative bias in the military that surfaced in its publications, approaches and doctrines. The military is an instrument of state power and tool in the use of force, I pointed to the goal posts having shifted since the nuclear advent. My bringing out that it could not be business-as-usual was a contrarian position initially in the strategic discourse in India. The effect of hyper-nationalist and cultural nationalist thinking on strategy was liable to underplay the nuclear genie let loose in the region.
The Indian discourse was on how to outpoint and overawe Pakistan leveraging the growing power differential with Pakistan.  The assumption was that nuclear deterrence would hold. India was grappling on how to have Pakistan discontinue its support to its proxies in the Kashmir conflict by using its conventional advantage. Pakistan, for its part, pulled down its nuclear awning to compensate for its conventional weakness. India, mindful of this, decided to pull its conventional punches in its new doctrine, Cold Start.
However, the nuclear doctrine remained unchanged at a declaratory level and consequently continues to pose a threat to regional – and global - security. With Pakistan poised for first use and India promising massive nuclear retaliation, there is a potentially catastrophic doctrinal impasse. A shift in India’s nuclear doctrine for greater flexibility is one way out of this conundrum, even if it makes nuclear war appear fightable, if not winnable. If escalation pessimists are right, then the alternative staring India in the face is to put its money where its mouth is – it is fond of saying that it is against nuclear weapons - and de-nuclearise.
Liberal security perspective:
Though India adopted Cold Start doctrine, India’s military exercises did not reflect the necessity of doctrinal shift to limited war in the nuclear era. Conflict termination under nuclear conditions was not sufficiently thought-through. My contributions, spread across multiple websites on strategic affairs, were combative, taking the argument to the realist camp. I have packaged these in books of my compiled words, so that the thread of the argument and the debates within the strategic community of the last two decades can be easier followed.
I believe that my advocacy from an Ashokan perspective was a lonely intellectual guerilla effort since the Indian strategic community – as elsewhere - is realist dominated. Realism has limitations that need to be brought to the attention of policy makers grappling with global consequences of military action in the nuclear age.
Kashmir:
India’s foremost internal conflict, Kashmir, the most likely trigger for nuclear conflict, was an abiding interest. Challenged by a people-centric militancy, India chose to characterize it as terrorism and proxy war precluding political resolution and privileging a military template. It was aided in this with the anti-terror discourse internationally after the 9/11 episode. This approach limited policy choices with conflict management instead of conflict resolution approaches to fore.
I was an early bird in examining the internal conflict, as my Kashmir-related writings going back to the early nineties, testify. I was posed thrice - briefly each time - in J&K during my military career and acquired a worm’s eye view to complement my strategic perspective from my academic engagement. I had grappled with the issue of external intervention in internal conflict – proxy war by Pakistan in Kashmir - in a chapter in my MPhil thesis while at Cambridge. By mid-2000s India and Pakistan reached out to each other. This was not to last, derailed by 26/11, as the terror attacks in Mumbai in November 2008 were called.
From another perch - my peace studies exposure in academia – I advocated progressing peace talks both internally and externally. Discerning why these do not succeed and what it might take for them to succeed is my attempt to stitch power oriented strategic studies and peace studies, that looks at negotiated end to conflict. I notice a conflict management approach trumps conflict resolution approaches, regardless on the implications for the community in which conflict is played out. I have been particularly critical on the latest constitutional initiative in Kashmir, whereby Kashmir has been reduced to a unit to be administered by New Delhi.
Counter insurgency:
The theme of peace initiatives and humane conduct of counter insurgency operations permeates my writings. This was usually to counter the militarized discourse in professional journals and within the strategic community in general and on how to tackle Kashmir and Pakistan. I reflected on the place of military template in this, arguing for human rights sensitivity in counter insurgency even where there is incidence of proxy war. I had two stints as an infantry officer in India’s north east: in Assam and Tripura. Thus, I was able to have a practitioner-cum-academic view, a not-unknown combination.
While India’s military has mostly been cognizant of human rights law and requirements, there is often a ‘Rambo’ tendency in fighting men. Institutional measures are needed for curbing can have strategic consequences as seen in Vietnam, Iraq and Afghanistan. The turn to cultural nationalism and its influence within the military also needs factoring in. Seeing the conflict as a civilisational one between Islam and Hinduism, dating to a thousand years back, constricts scope for concessions and mutual understanding. This is an understudied area since the military is treated as a holy cow. I brought up these issues, calling for a draw-down in the military prong of strategy in favour of a political approach.
Peace studies:
I have been able to gain a greater appreciation of political approaches and options in conflict resolution in my capacity as a political affairs officer with three UN missions. I undertook two UN trainings in mediation in Oslo and appreciate the potential for conflict resolution of non-military approaches.
Political approaches are not unknown in India. There are multiple suspension-of-operations agreements in place in the north east and a major and long lasting ceasefire agreement is under implementation in Nagaland. Even in Kashmir, there has been a Ramzan suspension of operations, though the initiative appears to have set the stage for Operation All Out, an operation that in turn created the conditions for the constitutional initiatives of August 2019. The lack of traction for peace brings to fore the necessity of peace studies insights and their wider dissemination.
I was acquainted with this deficit while at the peace studies faculty, getting to know the march that strategic studies faculties have acquired over peace studies faculties. Policies favour the former; thereby, having the role of and use of force appear more efficacious when contrasted to the possibilities of peace through peaceful means. This is taken as an exercise in sovereignty in post-colonial states that see citizens as subjects. The view that citizens are to be protected by the state against conflict and its effects, if necessary by preventive, mitigatory and resolution-seeking negotiations and mediation for conflict termination is not widely prevalent. The sense of insecurity allows a statist view to prevail, leading to self-perpetuating conflict management rather than conflict resolution. 
A summary of the oeuvre
I consolidated my writings in disparate locations into book compilations over the years to enable access for a wider audience, particularly the student community in international relations, South Asian studies, Indian politics, South Asian security issues and peace studies. The writings cover the period since the early nineties and have touched upon all security relevant issues, such as the nuclear issue, the conventional doctrine, counter insurgency practices, Kashmir, India-Pakistan equations, peacekeeping and civil-military relations. The conventional-nuclear doctrinal interface and civil-military relations or military sociology are I believe path-breaking, the latter is particularly so since the subject is understudied.
Below I undertake a synopsis of the books on my blog to provide the context and knit together the argument that at heart of India’s security predicament is the rise of the Right wing in Indian politics. A co-edited book, Towards a New Asian Order (2012), comprising the conference proceedings of an international conference I organized on Asia for my think tank, is a prominent output not covered here. Sixteen books have followed (http://www.dogearsetc.com/dogears/search/Author/Ali%20Ahmed; http://www.dogearsetc.com/dogears/search/All/firdaus%20ahmed), three of which are monographs (one unpublished). My dissertations below are at my blog:
·         PhD in International Politics, Jawarharlal Nehru University – ‘India’s Limited War Doctrine: Structural, Political and Organisational Factors’
·         MPhil at Cambridge University – ‘Intervention In Internal Affairs By States In South Asia’
·         MSc in Defence and Strategic Studies at DSSC, Madras University – ‘The Contending Philosophies In Indian Strategic Thought And The Impact On SAARC’
·         MA in War Studies, King’s College London – ‘UN Peacekeeping and Military Doctrine’

The sixteen books can be divided into four sets.
·         The first set comprises my two books with my peer reviewed book chapter and article contributions respectively to edited volumes and publications: South Asian security: A vantage point and Indian security: A vantage point.
·         The second set comprises the three monographs, two worked on at the Institute for Defence Studies and Analyses, namely Reconciling Doctrines: Prerequisite for Peace in South Asia and India’s Limited War Doctrine: The Structural Factor, and the third (unpublished) one at the United Services Institution, Institutional Interest: A Study of India’s Strategic Culture.
·         The third set comprises my compilations of publications (South Asia at a Strategic Cross Road; India: A strategic alternative; India’s National Security in the Liberal Perspective; On War in South Asia; On Peace in South Asia; South Asia: In it Together; Think South Asia; and Subcontinental Musings) and a book compilation with a proportion of my writings as a military officer (On India's military: Writings from within). Two further book comprise respectively some 100 op-eds in the Kashmir Times and another some 50 book reviews, including in the The Book Review India.

Synopsis of the sets

The first set

The first set with my book chapters and essays/articles respectively for eminent publications such as the Economic and Political Weekly – for which I share the monthly strategic affairs column with two other writers – is my major work. They cover the past decade and I believe are a significant contribution to the strategic debate in India, particularly so since the liberal perspective has not had space.

The essays reflect a contrarian perspective arguing that when India has enough power for security sufficiency, more of the same as argued by realists is unnecessary, counter-productive and liable to create a self-fulfilling prophecy in generating a security dilemma in neighbours, such as in India’s case, a relatively weaker Pakistan. Some essays carry an anti-nuclear stance, arguing through a strategic lens that nuclear weapons possession implies a critical time break. The argument was for adapting India’s conventional military power to the nuclear age. On the contrary, India, in the period, attempted to continue searching for ‘decisive victory’ through a new conventional doctrine, under cover of an expansive – and that count implausible - nuclear doctrine.

The implacable logic of deterrence in the nuclear age suggests a diplomatic outreach externally (with Pakistan) and peace interventions internally (in Kashmir). In the event, this is not the policy choice India adopted. I make the case through my writings that the reason for India missing out on the logic of the nuclear age is that its nuclear ascendance was in part induced by cultural (religious) revivalism in India and the need for primordial, national pride makes it continue to adhere to power – rather than accommodation - as means to conflict resolution. 

The second set

My second set comprises monographs. These have both research and conceptual content. In the monographs, Reconciling doctrines, I make my most significant argument that the doctrinal propensities of the two states – India and Pakistan – makes for a volatile combination when juxtaposed against each other. The two have offensive doctrines at the three doctrinal levels – Pakistan at the subconventional and India at the conventional level. Both have offensive nuclear doctrines: Pakistan does not have a No First Use doctrine while India though with an NFU has a ‘massive’ retaliation doctrine. My case is that a doctrinal interface is required between the two for conflict prevention, escalation control and conflict management.

The second monograph is on the structural factor determining doctrinal shift towards a proactive doctrine. It highlights a doctrinal impetus for India lying in Pakistan’s constant challenge at the subconventional level in Kashmir.

Of the three monographs, the one at the United Services Institution, supervised by the doyen of India’s strategic community, Mr. K. Subrahmanyam, was not published as I was an army major then and anticipating that the critique would not have been passed by the authorities had requested the monograph not be published. A bold look at how institutional interest of security agencies trumps national interest, the monograph is a critique of the subcultures in the security establishment, including its influence on the army’s performance in Kashmir.

In all three monographs, I show the hand of an assertive turn to strategic culture, brought about by inter-alia cultural revivalism in India, perhaps the first such academic observation in strategic literature on and in India.

The third set

My third set of books record developments in the security field in India and South Asia over the past two decades. The major websites of think tanks and publications in strategic field to which I regularly contributed are ipcs.org (Institute for Peace and Conflict Studies), claws.in (Center for Land Warfare Studies), idsa.in (Institute for Defence Studies and Analyses), citizen.in, foreignpolicyjournal.com, Kashmir Times, countercurrents.org, indiatogether.org, milligazette.com etc.

The methodology in my papers is usually to contrast the liberal perspective with the operative realist one, thereby providing a sound critique of extant policy. The books taken together are a trove for students and have a historical value, because they trace the political change in India and how that has impacted the strategic discourse and India’s defence, foreign and internal security policies.

For instance, in Kashmir over the past three decades there has been a consistent recourse to the military template, to little avail since the hard option only creates more recruits for the militancy and attracts Pakistan’s intelligence meddling. Therefore, the neglected policy choices including political approaches and peace interventions are advocated in my pieces covering Kashmir. It is no wonder India has compounded its predicament in Kashmir lately.

I follow the nuclear issue through the years, again making an anti-nuclear case but in strategic terms to carry the argument into strategic discourse. The anti-nuclear discussion is otherwise restricted to activist circuits that are marginalised, depriving the debate of energy.

A word on my writings while in the military, On India’s military: Writings from within. I was an active participant in the intellectual life of the Indian military. The record provides insight into the concerns of the military over two decades of late last century and early this century. The book is a window to the military.

A must read among my writings while in-service is one comprising the then unpublished articles owing to the requirement of obtaining military intelligence clearance for writings by military personnel, but have since been self-published as From within: Reflections on India's army. Equally significant is a compilation of comments on articles published in military publications wherein my critique was on the right wing cadence and influence. These letters now form a record for tracing how the right wing had penetrated military thinking and the extent to which it has. I reflect on the rise of cultural nationalism and trace its influence on the Indian military.

I bring a practitioner-cum-academic point of view to bear, a rare combination. There are few prolific writers from within the Indian military; fewer have put together their work between two covers. The Indian army is an oddity in the developing world in being both professional and not having meddled in politics. However, my work is different in showing up how politics has pervaded the military stealthily at first and more blatantly of late. This is in itself a original contribution to the ongoing national debate on where is India headed. 

Summing up

The key take-away from my writings is that the change in India’s strategic doctrine from defensive realism to offensive realism owes to the impact on Indian strategic culture of India’s rightward political shift under the impress of cultural nationalism. Here I contrast the popular realist perspective with the one I have furthered in my writings, the Asokan perspective.

The key competing explanation for this shift in India’s dominant strategic perspective is a structural one that has it that India’s security predicament has led to a response leveraging India’s increasing power over the period. The realist explanation is in is traditional balance-of-power terms.

The Chinese juggernaut looming large across Asia and the traditional Pakistani threat taken together combined to generate a potential ‘two-front’ problem. India’s economic indices since the liberalization of early nineties had an upward trend in the early 2000s. This led to greater investment in the defence sector, allowing for greater self-assertion by India in response to the ‘two-front’ dilemma. The nuclear breakout in 1998 was brought about by a Chinese collusion with Pakistan that posed a missile and nuclear threat. Under the nuclear umbrella, revisionist Pakistan sought to upset the status quo along the Line of Control, in Kashmir and pose a terror threat in India’s hinterland. The Chinese infrastructure development in Tibet led up to an adverse force ratio on that front. India was able, through an increased defence outlay, to play catch-up, both in terms of infrastructure building along the northern – undemarcated - border but also by raising its military strength.

The threat forced Indian response in terms of doctrine development, equipment acquisitions, military exercises, defence infrastructure building, forging of strategic partnerships and organizational innovation (such as the mountain strike corps). India reached out to the United States (US), fellow democratic powers in the Indo-Pacific and adopted an ‘Act East’ policy, to complement the US’ ‘pivot’ to Asia. Today the discourse is on Indo-Pacific. An increasingly vibrant economy helped India offset the Chinese attempt to box-in India into South Asian confines, using Pakistan as proxy.

On the other hand, in the Ashokan perspective, the ‘threat’ appears as a self-fulfilling prophecy, resulting from a security dilemma generated in the smaller neighbour, Pakistan, due to India’s own posture and actions. Over the eighties, India had a conventional war doctrine of conventional retribution using its two strike corps, as demonstrated in Exercise Brasstacks in the mid-eighties. This prompted Pakistan in the early nineties to neutralize India’s conventional advantage by bogging the Indian military down in a proxy war in Kashmir, even as India went in for a third strike corps. India’s military template in Kashmir kept the locale ideal for Pakistani interference.

To make its conventional advantage usable in face of Pakistan’s covert nuclear capability, India went overtly nuclear. It held China responsible for forcing its nuclear hand, even though at the time India had forged confidence building measures with China. This suggests that instead of a reckonable threat from China, the Chinese threat was a rationale to cover a development prompted by India’s equation with Pakistan. This reading has it that the structural explanation is only partial. By a structural yardstick, at best, the Indian strategy was to reinvigorate its conventional advantage, and thereby deter Pakistan at the subconventional level.

Alternatively, liberal explanations do not disavow power balances but are sensitive to policy impulses in other causal chains. At a wider – grand strategic level - Indian actions prompted the threats it faced, which were, in turn, used as strategic rationale for continuing down a chosen path of self-assertion. This begs the question as to impetus behind self-assertion.

In my writings, a cultural explanation has been privileged for its explanatory value.

The principle change in India has been a discernible shift to the Right, not only economically with adoption of neoliberalism, but politically in an emergence and rise of cultural nationalism. This impacted Indian strategic culture, in turn imposing on the strategic doctrine as traced in the cases followed: doctrine making, Kashmir, minority security, India-Pakistan relations and the organizational and sociological impact on the Indian army. In my writings, spread over a quarter century as outlined here, the rise of cultural nationalism and its impact on strategic culture and on military culture can be traced.

The quest has been for peaceable solutions – peace through peaceful means. Using the timeless Ashokan tradition in India I shone the light for and provided a mirror to the Indian strategic community. Retrospectively, my observations appear to be vindicated, with religious majoritarianism in ascendance in India. A sense of perspicacity is little satisfaction in face of aggravation of the Indian and regional security problematic. My advocacy for a liberal turn to politics, a return to a strategic doctrine of defensive realism and critique of an assertive strategic culture and offensive military doctrines, appears set to continue in light of the ideologically driven strategic missteps of the right wing regime.  


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