https://open.substack.com/pub/aliahd66/p/pahalgam-as-ajit-dovals-cross-to?utm_source=share&utm_medium=android&r=i1fws

Pahalgam as Ajit Doval’s cross to bear

The press release on Ajit Doval’s appointment as national security adviser has it that his tenure would be coextensive with that of Narendra Modi as prime minister. Both are now into their third tenure in respective appointments.

Doval helped with Modi’s image-building as a strong-man at various junctures of Modi’s political journey. Evidently, Modi continues to need Doval for upping his political game.

With Pahalgam, Doval has delivered another Pulwama-sized opportunity to buoy Modi’s political persona and pitch on the cusp of campaigning in the forthcoming elections in Bihar.

With elections in Bengal to follow next year, the scene is being set for gaining a majority in both houses for the ruling party.

Coming as the Pahalgam outrage did close on the heels of the Jaffar train hijack incident and Pakistan Army Chief Asim Munir’s fulminations, Pahalgam is laid squarely at Pakistan’s door.

However, Doval must be arraigned for creating the conditions that led to Pahalgam. Clearly, intelligence operations went overboard on his watch.

Modi has reiterated the ‘harshest response’. Doval is presumably dutifully busy with whistling up a Modi-era Lightning Campaign for ‘unimagined’ punishment.

Just as Pulwama was rather aptly timed for Modi’s political trajectory, Pahalgam may in retrospect turn out to be equally so – if all goes well for India’s military.

It bears reflection that such a momentous decision could stem from a few jihadi terrorists striking lucky at an unguarded meadow.

It should instead be a logical step up from preceding contingency planning, exercises and equipping effort.

Such gigantic national efforts are not predicated on triggers outsourced to the enemy or its proxies.

In other words, a conspiracy theory on Pahalgam cannot be ruled out.

The opportunity has been seized by the military, knowing it would prove cathartic for its showing at Balakot and over Rajauri; and indeed, also in Ladakh.

Since Balakot, its readied itself with the S-400 and Rafales; the latter was sorely missed in the skies over Rajauri by the then Air Chief. It is already softening up Pakistani defences along the Line of Control to also keep Pakistan guessing where the impending blow will fall. It’s started an energetic exercise with the portents of an Exercise Brasstacks.

Though intended for such contingencies, Cold Start – formally termed Proactive Strategy (PAS) - has been a non-starter.

It’s uncertain if the military dithered or if Doval got cold feet, but the fact is that the non-initiation of PAS allows for extended preparation time with the logic of attacking at ‘a place and time of own choosing.’

The upshot is a longer duration revving up for war.

The hiatus furnishes the right-wing ecosystem time to deepen the communal divide, an opportunity for which it never needed any beckoning – though the leisured terror attack was a specifically crafted invite.

For Modi, it could prove useful to pocket the hold-out states along the Ganga waterway – Bihar and Bengal – where tactics deployed in Haryana and Maharashtra may not work since the state governments are not double-engined.

Such a windfall for the right-wing political agenda suggests an alternate truth.

If Baisaran could attract the attention of an itinerant forest-ensconced jihadi outfit, that it missed security scrutiny is inexplicable in any other terms than as an open invitation.

That the jihadis hewed so closely to a script that would gladden right-wing hearts invokes suspicion on who exactly was the script writer.

Consequently, a conspiracy theory on Pahalgam needs to be ruled in.

After all, recall the Pulwama blast was on a convoy that should not have been there in first place.

If Pakistanis had done the outrage at Chattisinghpora, why the elaborate cover-up at Pathribal and Barakpore; not to forget the judicial calisthenics thereafter?

Consequently, given Indian propensity for plausibly deniable intelligence operations and in light of the immense political dividend for the right wing from the Pahalgam strike, Pahalgam cannot readily be taken as a solely fortuitous occurrence.

For now, allowing for Pahalgam as Pakistan’s doing, it’s evident that Pakistani intelligence minds have divined the Indian reality masterfully. Their script for the jihadis ensures India reacted exactly in the manner they wished.

What does this bespeak of India of today? What is Doval’s complicity in the creation of such an India?

That is Doval’s cross to bear in history.

If and since Doval is currently readying the security establishment for a war with potential to go nuclear, he should be faulted for going down this route at jihadi behest.

In other words, if Pahalgam was not a black operation, it really ought to have been one.

And, if it wasn’t, Doval is eminently sackable for being enticed into a war, the end game of which can only be talks in which the status of Munir’s jugular will prominently figure.

The good part is that the opposite number is Asim Munir. Though not a Yahya - he is no drunk - he may instead be high on what was opium to Marx.

Even so, the military must be cautioned that capriciousness of war outcomes can only be tempered by strategic wisdom.

If the military falls short on the latter, poetic justice will catch up with Doval and mentor Modi. But that cannot be any patriot’s wish.

 https://aliahd66.substack.com/p/a-curious-absence-in-the-statistics

https://thewire.in/security/a-curious-statistic-maoists-only-die-they-dont-seem-to-get-injured-captured-or-surrender

A Curious Statistic: Maoists Only Die; They Don’t Seem To Get Injured, Captured or Surrender

Media seldom informs of Naxal casualties other than the tally of their dead in encounters in the jungles of Chhattisgarh. Curiously, Naxals only die; they don’t seem to get injured, surrender at the site or get captured in operations.

The narrative usually has it that on receiving information, security forces deploy. Pursuant to a firefight in the jungles, that results in minimal casualty figures on the security forces side, over a couple of dozen Naxals perish.

It doesn’t take experience in jungle bashing to spot, but even an armchair strategist or media commentator ought to know that those undertaking operations are not all marksmen, invariably dropping dead on the spot those targeted.

It’s reasonable to assume that not all shots fired result in kills, but may instead, injure. An Adivasi fighter at the recipient end of bullets would more likely be placed out of action, hors de combat.

There is no indication yet that Adivasi fighters are imbued with a fidayeen mentality or are sworn to die in combat, like the Tamil Tigers.

It’s possible that the Naxal leadership, with a price on their heads and their immediate troop of loyal bodyguards, might put up a ‘last man, last round’ stand. But such encounters are not the routine and senior Maoists also known to surrender.

So, how is it so consistently that there are no reports of injured fighters being captured and evacuated? How is it that there are no surrenderees reported in the aftermath of such encounters?

If it were the case that injured Adivasi fighters are taken care of humanely one would expect a mention in the media, given that it shows up a benign face of the State and is good counter insurgency practice.

It makes tactical sense to entice surrenders and incentivize a less fearsome last stand by Naxals, one liable to exact a higher price in security force casualties.

True, there are several reports on surrenders, including en masse, even if some are stage managed for propaganda value – all par for the course in counter insurgency.

Usually some insurgents survive the firefight, either unable to carry on the fight due to being wounded or sufficiently conditioned by the cordite to give themselves up. It’s possible that some of those wounded are carted away by compatriots, but casualty figures of over a score on their side suggest that such a display of camaraderie is fraught.

Per Amit Shah in parliament, ‘380 Naxals have been killed within a span of one year in Chhattisgarh since the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) government came to power in the state in December 2023.’

To put it mildly that is a somewhat high casualty figure for a desultory insurgency. It would be concerning if injured Adivasis are subsumed in this figure.

This begs the question: Are security forces departing from the straight and narrow?

The straight and narrow

It can be argued that International Humanitarian Law (IHL) is not the applicable body of law as the case in Central India is not one of armed conflict.

To be sure there is an insurgency on, but for applicability of IHL, the situation in Central India has never met the two thresholds: that of intensity and the armed groups as ‘party to the conflict.’

Even so, there is Common Article 3 of the Geneva Conventions, on ‘conflicts not of an international character’. India is signatory of the Conventions and it is reproduced in domestic law. Common Article 3 reads:

(1) Persons taking no active part in the hostilities…and those placed 'hors de combat' by… wounds, detention… shall in all circumstances be treated humanely….

To this end, the following acts are and shall remain prohibited at any time and in any place whatsoever with respect to the above-mentioned persons:
(a) violence to life and person, in particular murder of all kinds,…
(d) the passing of sentences and the carrying out of executions…

(2) The wounded and sick shall be collected and cared for.

Irrespective of the applicability of treaty law, there is customary humanitarian law to be cognizant of. These mandatory observances,

apply to all civilians in the power of a party to the conflict and who do not take a direct part in hostilities, as well as to all persons who are hors de combat… these fundamental guarantees are overarching rules that apply to all persons….

These strictures are non-derogable, applicable even in time of ‘emergency’ – a situation threatening to the life of a nation. They are also applicable non-reciprocally.

India is sworn to align domestic law with IHL, with Common Article 1 stating: ‘The High Contracting Parties undertake to respect and to ensure respect for the present Convention in all circumstances.’

Domestic law, the relevant body of law, covers both murder and human rights, neither of which is permissive of elimination of insurgents when they no longer pose an armed threat.

Consequently, the curious case of absence of injured and captured insurgents from statistics emerging from Central India calls out for an accounting.

Pressures of performance skewing the act?

At the structural level, there is the apparent hurry with which the operations are sought to be wound up.

Home Minister Amit Shah has ordained, "I say it in this House with a responsibility that Naxalism in this country will be eliminated by March 21, 2026."

There are no national and state assembly elections about then, that may make the deadline loom large.

In a recent interview, Amit Shah clarified where the date apparently sprung from, saying, “Confidence by itself doesn’t eliminate Naxalism. I made the statement based on the work already done.”

He elaborates on the ‘work already done’ along four lines of a ‘clear, hold, build’ strategy: energising operations; ink blot expansion of secure areas; strangling the funding; and shift to development.

Apparently, the trendline from the four prongs operating simultaneously culminates at end March next year.

At the operational level possible pressures stem from the first prong of strategy, which in Shah’s words is: “…take ruthless action on those who had picked up guns and were responsible for the violence. We employed maximum force.”

The verbiage is reminiscent of a general in Kashmir when figures for those surrendering in operations was near zero in 2018 and early 2019.

It’s also questionable if ‘maximum force’ is doctrinally compliant, in which the terms usually used are ‘minimum necessary’ or ‘optimum’ application of force.

It is true that under influence of the Americans and Israelis, Indian doctrine has ‘advanced’ beyond earlier limitations on use of force. What escapes such a perspective is that the two militaries were not fighting their own citizens.

Amit Shah, in parliament, put New India’s new doctrine rather colourfully: “We shoot them between the eyes as soon as we spot them.” Marksmanship appears to have improved lately, while discrimination and the duty of precaution appear to have been scuttled.

At the tactical level, counter-intuitively, there appears to be little reason to be gung-ho.

Security forces have benefited from a technology and equipment upgrade, including weapons with area effects and drones. In contrast, photos of weapons recovered from sites of firefights show up weapons in Naxal possession as abysmal.

Despite the asymmetry, there is no case that security forces need imperil themselves in eking out armed fighters from the bush when they can well pulverize it.

By all means security forces must prevail and exercise caution against incurring casualties. Casualty figures in low single digits in each such otherwise massive encounter shows security forces need no reminding on this score.

However, it is impossible to visualize that there are no Adivasi hors de combat at such sites.

Finally, are the structural factors – doctrine and its imbibing in training.

The missing link between the law and operational conduct is doctrine. There is no known counter insurgency doctrine that the central armed police and state police forces involved subscribe to.

The NN Vohra task force on internal security, as part of the post Kargil reforms, recommended the increased engagement of the central armed police forces in counter insurgency.

The central police forces got an opportunity right off with the Red Corridor exaggerated by Manmohan Singh as the primary national security threat.

The army opted to stay out when the incidence of violence was higher. I had made the case that it is an infantry man’s job and the army must take it on, fearing that the learning curve of the substitute, central police forces, would be at the cost of human rights – quite like that of the Rashtriya Rifles in Kashmir.

Clearly, there are miles to go.

Adhering to doctrine would have obviated critical commentary, such as how the cash incentive for kills is skewing the body count. It appears the army gave up the practice, a best practice the men in khaki would do well to follow.

The perceived lack in ethical operational conduct could also be due to the heavy lifting is being done by locals. Given a loose rope, they keep the ‘kills’ counter ticking. This owes to a structural weakness in leadership, wherein higher order commanders - from an elite service - are seldom on the frontline.

Even if there is pressure to show ‘results’ and ‘kills’, as is usually the case for institutional and personal reasons, there is no excuse for a ‘no quarter given’ approach.

Any illegal orders to the effect – ‘take no prisoners’ – is not merely a violation of IHL, but is chargeable as murder in individual cases and, ‘when committed as part of a widespread or systematic attack directed against any civilian population, with knowledge of the attack’, as an international crime: crimes against humanity.

Training company commander in my time at the Military Academy, Basant Ponwar, who trained generations of state police men at the Chhattisgarh battle school, is hardly likely to have given an such instruction.

Nor would my commando instructor and regimental legend, Santosh Kurup, be instilling in Maharashtra police commandos training under his supervision any such notion.

However, since nothing succeeds like success quantified, there is little close scrutiny of what’s going on and wrong.

The price of liberty, vigilance

The leadership chain - which under the doctrine of command responsibility extends right up to Amit Shah - needs reminding that unrestrained tactics leave behind ugly human rights scars and a helpful trail for future transitional justice.

It is obvious from Shah’s lauding of the District Reserve Guards that locals are at the forefront of operations. What a colonial policy of ‘divide and rule’ is doing - when the mantra is ‘decolonise’ - to Adivasis as a people is easy to reckon.

Recall the manner the Ikhwans were used against the Kashmiri militancy. At least there the rationale of a proxy war and higher intensity operations held true.

An accounting will loom larger when Adivasi lands continue to be handed over progressively to corporates - which incidentally may well be Shah’s unstated compulsion.

Even if as a Shah-fawning headline has it, the State is ‘Winning the War’, why it is being fought and how it is being ‘won’ must exercise minds.

Today it’s the hapless Adivasis, tomorrow it could be anyone’s turn for the attentions of security forces with a heightened, if false, sense of impunity, accomplishment and proficiency.