https://aliahd66.substack.com/p/khalid-kidwai-doth-protest-too-much?r=i1fws
Khalid Kidwai doth protest too much, methinks
Khalid Kidwai spent the better part of his address (55min) at a recently concluded international non-proliferation conference in Islamabad extolling the virtues of nuclearization for Pakistan. Kidwai chaperoned the Pakistani arsenal in its fledgling years after the Chagai tests, putting in place the mainstay of Pakistan’s deterrence, its Full Spectrum Deterrence (FSD) doctrine. Since operationalizing Pakistan’s nuclear capability has been his life’s work, his indulgence in self-congratulations can be excused.
Whereas in the early days of Pakistan’s doctrine-making, Kidwai had explicitly pegged the nuclear threshold somewhat high, ambiguity surrounds current nuclear thresholds envisaged by FSD. The FSD was itself a doctrinal response to India’s ‘cold start’ doctrine that sought to reclaim space on the spectrum of conflict for limited military operations below the nuclear threshold. FSD rested on the shoulders of a short-range low-yield tactical nuclear weapon, the Nasr. It halted ‘cold start’ in its tracks.
Khalid believes that FSD has even pulled up Modi’s India short. To him, the strategic shift under the Modi regime has come a cropper. Successive Indian rejoinders to terror attacks have indeed been considerably attenuated, be it in September 2016, February 2019 or May 2025; respectively, merely one-night, two-day and four-day affairs.
Despite the certainty of a higher quotient of violence set to attend the next round, Kidwai is spurred into desiring Pakistan go beyond its currently favoured ‘quid pro quo-plus’ response, to a double-plus (“severe and unforgiving”) one. Even if his talk at the conference is discounted as deterrence rhetoric and designed to influence international participants - or as typical Pakistani posturing (though Kidwai is not Punjabi!) - it bears scrutiny. Afterall, Kidwai in retirement continues as adviser to the national command authority (NCA). His word may have a field marshal’s ear.
Querying Kidwai’s narrative
At the bespoke conference, another senior adviser on national security and fellow general to boot, had this to say: “It (South Asia) is a nuclear flashpoint owing to India’s ultra-nationalist tendencies as a result …of Hindutva’s rise and consolidated through the Brahmanist capture of the ballot box. The ideology espouses hegemonic ambitions of an imaginary continuity of Akhand Bharat. (41:30).” Clearly, the fizz in Indian political culture and its impact on strategic culture has spooked its neighbor.
To be sure, the army there has uses for such justifications for its nuclear capability and sabre rattling: to keep its military atop the political structure there, especially when challenged from the street and the periphery. For national cohesion, the army chief when yet a general, had zealously invoked the two-nation theory. Propping up of the Hindutva bogey helps with furthering the army’s institutional interests, but is at an operational risk of misreading Indian conflict strategy.
In his operational reflections, Kidwai drew attention to India’s nuclear submarine on patrol with its complement of mated nuclear missiles. India’s recent operationalizing of its triad – the basis of its ‘no first use’ (NFU) pledge - is counter-intuitively presented as enabling first use options for India. Contrary to the verities of nuclear theology, he – surprisingly for and old nuclear hand - takes boomers as weapon systems “pointing towards India adopting a first strike posture (1:24:59),” by deeming whether these are means for first strike or second strike “irrelevant.” Whereas being eminently survivable, boomers are pursued instead for the invulnerable second strike capability they furnish. An assured ability to strike back after absorbing a first strike is the fundamental of nuclear deterrence thinking, dating back to the cold war.
Kidwai conveniently forgets an implicit threat he once made. He signaled that Pakistan’s ballistic missiles could reach India’s island territories, implying Pakistan could degrade India’s second strike assets in their very pens. Taking cue, if India has since put one out to sea it makes sense. A ballistic missile submarine reportedly figured in naval deployment in 2019. Kidwai must introspect his role is in conjuring up this self-created threat for Pakistan.
In light of FSD’s predisposition for nuclear first use, India cannot but consider rescinding its NFU as an option in favour of preemption. This explains India’s canisterisation even of land-based missiles and tactical nuclear weapons (45min). Such development indicates that India having relevant assets at hand for nuclear first use does not require to dual task boomers. Clearly, Kidwai’s brainchild, the FSD, in putting Pakistan in India’s nuclear crosshairs is proving increasingly counter-productive in securing Pakistan.
While the Indian nuclear doctrine does posit ‘massive’ retaliation, developments since its promulgation suggest a wider menu on the table. Agreeing with Kidwai that since mutual assured destruction is inevitable in massive and equally telling counter-strikes, the doctrinal threat is at best appropriate for deterrence, not nuclear employment.
It’s doctrinaire proponent, K Subrahmanyam, held that combative phraseology was essential to ward-off an uppity opponent (likened by him to ‘irrational’ ‘children,’ presumably with Pakistan in mind), stating: “If the side which… has an image of being a risk-taker, that will have certain negative impact on others. The logical step for the rival side is enhance its image of punishing capability further, so that the risk-taker will not be in any doubt of the pain and suffering in store for him if he were to resort to nuclear weapons first.”
But a doctrine is not quite strategy. FSD can be met nuclear toe-to-toe by India; even if and especially if its fuse is set at ‘zero meters’. FSD can at best deter ‘large scale’ war it was designed for, not the kind of war India is looking to fight. Kidwai’s take that Pakistan is “dealing with irrational actors bordering on lunacy, driven entirely by the radical religious ideology of Hindutva, and hubris and hate mongering of the Indian leadership (1:11:30),” would compel his advice in the NCA to be for an upping of the ante at an untold risk for Pakistan.
Kidwai’s counterpoise for the New Normal
India has forged a New Normal. India holds that Pakistan’s reference to its nuclear card is but ‘nuclear bluff.’ Undeterred, India intends conflating terrorist and military targets into one target list, in a step-up from the opening round of Op Sindoor. Though India’s newly released land warfare doctrine is not in the open domain as yet, it may be informed by its long-held thinking echoed by its new chief on the relevance of territorial gains in the concept of victory.
Pakistan is not only embroiled on its western front, but has also sent troops and assets to secure its new-found ally, the Saudis. So, it is difficult to envisage the Kidwai-promised conventionally-executed double-plus counter. To compensate, it has taken care to place its strategic forces under unified command, that of its chief of defence forces (CDF). The CDF now exercising tight positive control calms earlier worries over delegation. By implication, FSD does not cover the lower reaches of the conventional level of the spectrum of conflict, at which surgical strikes and localised border skirmishes play out.
Pakistan need not necessarily overturn the trend of limitation visible in recent limited military conflicts. Indeed, Pakistan has historically under-played its hand. In 1947, it bogged down on the outskirts of Srinagar. In 1965, it did not push on either at Akhnur or Khem Karan. In 1971, it kept the western front inactive. At Kargil, it dismally pulled out under American watch. It has been unable to capitalize on proxy war. After Uri, it pretended nothing happened. In Op Swift Retort, its strafing of ground targets kept off military objectives. In Op Sindoor, it remained on the hotline, even as its airbases were pummeled.
Pakistan’s generals know they exaggerate Hindutva’s expansionism. India’s way to viksit bharat is through amrit kaal, which cannot be waylaid by wider conflicts or conflict escalation. Through surgical strikes and alleged proxy war, Modi’s India is at best keeping Pakistan on the backfoot in relation to Kashmir and prospectively its relationship with its minority. The surgical strikes are low-cost investments for high domestic political dividend. It cannot afford to chance wider war with its two-front connotations, evident from the first night of Op Sindoor.
FSD made irrelevant
Consequently, FSD - designed to deter major war - really has had nothing to deter. After the example of Russia in Ukraine and the United States against Iraq earlier and Iran now, it is indeed “not an era for war.” With military operations-other-than-war at the interface of subconventional-conventional levels, India has arrived at its own sub-war answer.
Not meant to, the FSD has patently not “reinforced deterrence at all levels.” Forcing the choice of escalation onto Pakistan, India - not unreasonably - expects Pakistan to be self-deterred by the very logic of FSD: “It generates strategic deterrence effects for which it was conceived, i.e. deterrence against all-out war (1:2:53).” What demonisation of the other side, as indulged in by the Pakistani generals quoted, would do to nuclear decision making is worth a pause.
Like the FSD, its progenitor and propagandist, once prisoner-of-war Khalid Kidwai would do well to do as illustrious generals eventually do: fade away.