Friday 26 July 2019

https://thewire.in/security/kargil-vijay-diwas-indian-army-integrated-battle-groups

Kargil Vijay Diwas: 20 Years on, Has The Army Learnt its Lessons?

The Indian Army’s Cold Start doctrine is in large measure a product of the Kargil War and is only now getting its milk teeth. The concept of integrated battle groups (IBG) was finally tested 15 years after it was thought up, during military exercises this summer in the Exercise Kharga Prahar of 2 Corps, a strike corps of the Western Command. This was not without hiccups as the test bed exercise was postponed by a month, owing to the latest India-Pakistan crisis. 
Media reports have it that the exercise being successful, the Army now has a force made potent with higher degree of firepower and mobility to add to India’s response repertoire, without triggering nuclear redlines. More IBGs would be in the offing, with up to eight finding early mention in the strategic literature put out by the cottage industry that grew up around Cold Start over the past 15 years.
The Air Force having stolen a march over the Army with Operation Bandar, its aerial surgical strike at Balakot, the IBGs would enable the Army to get back into the reckoning of retaliatory options in Pulwama-like situations. The army’s option of surgical strikes along the Line of Control (LoC) had been exhausted in the wake of the Uriterror attack
The wheel appears to have come full circle since Kargil. The Army continues to make itself relevant to the nuclear age. 
At Kargil, the Army’s political masters had proved reluctant to unleash it across the LoC, let alone follow Lal Bahadur Shastri’s precedent of crossing the international border in the 1965 war. The Army was then organised into strike crops with war strategies dating to Exercise Brasstacks in the late eighties. The Kargil War revealed that the advent of nuclear weapons had rendered these war concepts dated.  
Sensing as much soon after the war, India’s then Army chief, General Ved Malik, spied a window between the sub-conventional level and the nuclear level in which the Army’s conventional advantage could be leveraged in limited war. Even as thinking got underway, India was stumped by the terror attack on the parliament, and deterred itself from chancing its strike corps in reprisal. 
Cold Start was thought up in wake of Operation Parakram, a coercive diplomacy after the parliament attack. A newly-minted Army doctrine, colloquially called “cold start”, was adopted. Even while the doctrine was put through the paces in Army manoeuvres over the following years, the political level did not feel confident enough to rely on it in response to the dastardly 26/11 Mumbai terror attack. 
Though the Army geared up structurally – including by raising a new corps and a command for the Pakistan front – it could not assure against escalation since the lumbering strike corps persisted as the mainstay of its organisation for the western front. Finally, with the elevation of Bipin Rawat as Army Chief, the Army took ownership of cold start and delivered on the promise of IBGs. 
It is not as if the Army lacked punching power in the interim. The Army took care to keep in readiness a combat command – an armoured or mechanised brigade – in rotation, ostensibly under training, in the desert sector. Others that had been staged forwardfrom bases in the hinterland closer towards the border as part of early Cold Start restructuring, were also held on a short fuse.  
It appears that the arrangement was unsuitable since the force on training was usually ad-hoc, comprising combat groups from different formations; thereby compromising cohesion. The other earmarked formations were mostly in peace time mode, resulting in invoking less confidence in a shifting of gears from cantonment soldiering to combat in short order. This is a perennial bane of the Indian military. 
Knowing its organisational culture best, the Army had taken its time readying itself in the prelude to both the 1965 and 1971 wars. In 1965, the summer was well spent in Operation Ablaze, triggered by Pakistan’s forays into Kutch at one end and into Kargil in the other, prior to the war. As for the 1971 war, the story of Manekshawseeking in his inimitable style time to prepare, using the then-impending monsoons as excuse, is by now folklore, though there is no documentary evidence to support the claim.
Assuming that it had. in 1971. exorcised the demons from its resounding defeat in the 1962 war, the Army went somnolent only to be rudely awakened in the early phases of the Indian Peace Keeping Force sojourn. Shifting gears into intense combat took time and casualties, leaving a few hundred civilians Tamil dead. 
History repeated itself in the Kargil War. The then Army chief Ved Malik, to his credit, accepts to being surprised by the occupation of the Kargil heights by the Gilgit Scouts by the end of winter. As the Army scrambled to ascertain the extent of the intrusion, it had the option of using reserve formations to evict the intruders. 
At a commemorative seminar by a service think-tank (attended by this author), the then military operations head, N.C. Vij, let on that they alighted on 8 Mountain Division, then deployed on the counter insurgency and counter infiltration grid in Kupwara sector, for the task. He gave out that the Division Commander, Mohinder Puri, inspired confidence. Presumably, the leader of Northern Command’s reserve formation, 6 Mountain Division, missed out on history for this lack.
This is a curious reason to give. 
Mohinder Puri had in a war game — made famous after the war for uncanny similarity to Pakistan’s plan then unfolding but unbeknownst to the war gamers — played the part of the enemy commander. He had, in his plans, bitten off the Kargil heights. The cost of choosing him over his counterpart for his perspicacity was reflected in the immense instability encountered in counter insurgency and in the anti-infiltration grid by the moving out of the 8 Mountain Division from the northern reaches of Kashmir. 
Pakistan was quick to exploit this gap by pumping in the jihadists, who then proceeded to launch fidayeen attacks over the next few years, till they were finally wrapped up by the additional troops deployed for Operation Parakram. 
Admittedly, 6 Mountain Division, being based in Bareilly with its brigades to Uttarakhand, would have had a delayed arrival. Yet the time taken for moving in, familiarising with, acclimatising to and the eventual launch from the region could have been profitably used for reconnoitring, prepositioning artillery, softening the ill-prepared Pakistani sangars with firepower and planning a concerted battle. 
In the event this was not done. The whole story of this critical decision remains untold, since two protagonists — the commanders of the Srinagar Corps and Northern Command — are no more. 
There is little accounting for the lives lost. Then prime minister, Atal Bihari Vajpayee, was lauded for the decision not to cross the LoC. The responsibility for loss of lives must also be his, especially since the military did not fully buy into the decision.
From the recollections that have surfaced so far, there is no record of political leadership pressuring for quick results. Such political pressure would have been plausible since Vajpayee’s was a caretaker government looking ahead to elections, having lost a parliamentary floor test by a single vote earlier in the year. If there was no pressure, the military leadership’s decision to destabilise the counter insurgency grid for quick results is missing an accounting. 
Looking ahead, if the reserve division was unready then, there are lessons for IBGs. 
The compulsion of delivering on the substantive side of the mandate is weighed down by frills that accompany peacetime soldiering. That these need pruning is evident from chiefs periodically riling against them; the naval Chief’s missive to his command on reduction of “unnecessary ostentation” being a recent example. 
This peace time culture is accentuated by its extensive engagement in low-intensity conflict operations, which – in light of Indian manpower advantages – are only intermittently challenging and in limited areas at that. It gives the Army a self-image of a well-blooded force. 
A limiting, tactical-level focus instead ossifies talent for other facets of professionalism. The commentary attending the Kargil War anniversary makes clear that the elements of operational art and strategic acumen – indicators of professionalism – were missing. 
The IBG initiative owes to a failure to work the cultural changes intrinsic to mechanisation dating to the eighties. Manoeuvre warfare is fluid, relying on Auftragstaktik or decentralised, mission-command tactics based on directive control. If the Army had measured up to mechanisation, there was little reason for shifting to preconfigured IBGs for periodic “mowing the grass” operations. 

Doctrinal and organisational changes are essential, but so is a cultural shift. The latter is not in evidence, with IBGs symbolising both the failure and its acknowledgement. Twenty years since Kargil, it remains true that the more things change the more they remain the same. 

Thursday 25 July 2019


Salute, April-May 2019 issue


A trial balloon was floated recently in the media that the government has asked the army to dispense with services of the commanders of the bases that were attacked by terrorists. Three bases found mention in the media report: Uri, Nagrota and Sanjuvan. Rightly, the army has reportedly pushed back, citing the negative effect on aggressive leadership any such move is likely to have.  
While the veracity of the report is not known, the media source being largely credible, it bears reflection as to what the political minders and bureaucratic henchmen imagined when they sought to prevail on the army to take such action.
It is well known that the military has to be on perpetual alert in counter insurgency beset areas, whereas the insurgents/terrorists have to be lucky but once. Therefore, for a base to be attacked as part of an ongoing insurgency/proxy war is only par for the course. It is the immediate reaction and response that is consequential in determining the showing of the outfit attacked.
By this yardstick, it can be argued that even the seeming setback suffered in the Uri terror attack needs moderating. The deaths of a dozen jawans owed not so much to terror action but to an accident resulting from the situation in which the tent they were sleeping in burnt down. The three terrorists were neutralised with just about double the number of own dead, which is reasonable considering that terrorists are no pushovers themselves and their advantage of surprise had first to be negated.
The army transferring of the commander out of the area then was therefore justified, but going any further now would amount to being stampeded by an unrealistic expectation in the minds of civilian desk warriors in Delhi.
They need reminding that friction is endemic in conflict. Friction is the military equivalent of Murphy’s law. As Clausewitz illustrated it, all actions in conflict zones are akin to walking in water. Its effects must be factored in when envisaging operations and their consequences. The fog of war serves to compound fluid situations.  
This phenomenon is true for crisis also. The heightened tensions can result in unintended and inadvertent actions, such as in the unfortunate case of fratricide in which an air force missile unit shot down an own helicopter at Budgam. The friendly fire incident owed to the spike in tension and uncertainty – the fog of war – resulting in the tragedy, an instance of friction.
Though the air force is  considering legal action against the involved officers and weapons handlers, it bears reminding that the situation was one of an ongoing armed attack. Insisting on standard operating procedure implementation is fine, but the human element in combat needs taking into account in any such consideration. The air force must not be overly zealous in attempting to impress its political minders by taking legal recourse in relation to an operational action.
If this advice is valid for the air force that lost air men in the accident, it holds doubly true for the army when confronted with unreasonable demands on how its handles its internal inquiry systems. It needs maintaining its autonomy and having military considerations prevail. 
It is strange that this suggestion has been bandied when there has been no accountability in relation to the Pulwama incident. Pinning of responsibility would have reckoned with at least two heads to have rolled of the Indian Police Service brass, namely, the ones who planned the convoy that was targeted and the intelligence supervisors who missed the car bombing in the offing.
Protecting internal turf is a command responsibility. The army chain has let the government know that the necessary action has been taken. Any further push by civilians is therefore only intended to push the military into a corner and keep it there, in a travesty of civil-military relations. Appropriate democratic civil-military relations entail the military professional sphere being off limits to political muddling.
The theory that has it that civilians are always right even when patently wrong is viable only in states where civilians have a modicum of sensibility for what the military domain implies. The idea broached of sacking commanders instead has fingerprints of amateurs all over it.
Fortunately, the brass shot down – for now - the sentiment likely originating in the national security bureaucracy that over-lays the defence sector these days. Only by standing up will the military continue standing tall.






Monday 15 July 2019

https://www.dropbox.com/s/34phetyszz4itia/Kashmir%20Times%20Op%20Eds%20Ali.pdf?dl=0
Kashmir: Strategic Sense and Nonsense

Kashmir Times Op-eds 2010s

By Ali Ahmed




Ali Ahmed is a former UN official and military officer. Currently, he is an academic affiliated with a central university in New Delhi. Views are personal and have no relevance to any organization the author has been associated with.



















For the people of Kashmir


Preface and acknowledgement

The title needs explaining. I believe a nonsensical strategy has attended India’s Kashmir problem over the past decade. In the United Progressive Alliance government period, the government was afraid of its own shadow. It missed a splendid opportunity to address the Kashmir issue meaningfully. No doubt, it had the shadow of the right wing looming across it staying its hand. As for the right wing, when it came to power, it has willfully messed up the situation further. As the right wing has another lease of life in power, there can only more nonsense up ahead. The assumption is that Kashmiris will bear the brunt and, therefore, it is not of consequence for the rest of us in South Asia. This is untenable. The right wing is perfectly capable of worse and this shall surely come to pass too over the coming five years.

This volume of my opinion pieces in the Kashmir Times over the 2010s are proof of India hurtling down hill as a country, taking Kashmir down with it and looking to drag down the rest of South Asia with it too. This understanding is reverse of the popular notion that it is Pakistan as a failing state that is out to drag India down with it. I believe the democratic take over of India by the right wing is an existential danger to the subcontinent. Its conjoined Kashmir and Pakistan policies are not merely potentially explosive, but are an explosion in slow motion. The answer is not to be found in Kashmir. It is to be looked for in the rest of India, where the electorate needs to rethink its self-interest. The apprehension is that this will not happen till the calamity impending is not over and done with.

In the main, the commentaries here deal with Kashmir and India’s Pakistan policy as relevant to Kashmir. There are several largely critical pieces covering the counter insurgency campaign. Since a significant proportion of the army is deployed in Jammu and Kashmir, the op-eds covered the meaing of the 'strategy' in Kashmir - of which the army was a major instrument - for the army as an institution. The commentaries link India's Pakistan and Kashmir strategies to internal politics in India, in which the ascendance of the right wing meant preclusion of any peace headway. The constant call is for the passing opportunities to be seized. The needs of the strategy of Othering that brought the right wing to power in India account for the advocacy being ignored.

The nonsense in the Kashmir strategy owes to contamination of strategy by ideology. It is no secret that the strategic establishment owes right wing allegiance. The strategic community has had its share of right wingers, who were in the closet till early this decade. Since a major plank of such cultural nationalist thinking is anti-Muslim, any strategy geared to addressing South Asian Muslim issues cannot but be contaminated by ideological baggage. To expect a rational strategy – even one based on realism – is to be wishful. The Pakistan strategy needs no edification. Needless to add, that the strategies will fall flat in good time. The issue is how to survive the deneument.

Plainspeaking is the need of the hour. The compilation is to focus minds. Nothing can be done to avert the catastrophe, but seeing off the right wing back to the margins would require to be done once the dust – hopefully not radioactive - has settled. This would require the shoulder of all institutions. In alerting the nation, the collection of op-eds would have served a purpose. 

The compilation would be of interest to students, academics, practitioners in uniform, policy makers and the attentive public. The issues dealt with are at the interstices of strategic. security and peace studies. It has insights for the military engaged in countering insurgency, for their political masters and the bureaucratic intermediary layer both in Srinagar and the national security establishment in Delhi. The book is dedicated to the people of Kashmir, both within and outside of the Valley. 

I thank Anuradha Bhasin Jamwal for her unstinting support. Her liberality shines through. Her paper Kashmir Times has ploughed a lonely furrow and done a national service in keeping the liberal torch aloft in trying times. I thank the editorial staff for the support over the past decade of my writing for the paper, the writings put together between these covers: some 100 op-eds comprising 1.25 lakh words. Needless to add, all shortcomings in the language, style and facts are mine. I thank my family for its usual forebearance. Hope their optimism that the essays shall prove useful is proven true.

Contents
1.         Kashmir: Snatching defeat from the jaws of victory, 6 July 2019                            1
2.         At The Doorstep Of Indian Military Politicization, 6 June 2019                               2
3.         Kashmir: As The Army Surveys The Next Five Years, 12 June 2019                      4 
4.         Event management is no substitute for strategy, 3 June 2019                                   6
5.         Gratis advice for the next National Security Adviser, 21 May 2019                         8
6.         Kashmir: Radicalisation and what to do about it, 10 May 2019                             10
7.         The Doval And Hooda Prescriptions Examined, 5 April 2019                               12
8.         Balakot: Divining India’s strategy from its messaging, 9 March 2019                    14
9.         Reminding The Political Class Of Clausewitz's First Injunction, 18 Feb 2019        16
10.       The Army's land warfare doctrine, 9 Feb 2019                                                      18
11.       Operation Kabaddi Revealed But Only Partially, 26 January 2019                        20
12.       Kashmir: Towards peace with dignity, 17 Dec 2018                                              23
13.       Contextualising the army chief’s news making, 6 Dec 2018                                  25
14.       Governor, 'root causes' matter, 6 Nov 2018                                                           27
15.       Divide and kill, 30 Oct 2018                                                                                  28
16.       Ajit Doval's platter: Centralisation with a purpose, 16 Oct 2018                            30
17.       India on the brink, 24 Sep 2018                                                                             32
18.       India's spooks: Getting too big for their boots?, 4 Sep 2018                                   34
19.       Noting the spokesperson-minister’s remarks, 19 Jul 2018                                      36
20.       Human Rights: All so unfortunately ho-hum, 3 Jul 2018                                       37
21.       The army chief as regime spokeman?, 16 May 2018                                             39
22.       The 'incident': Nothing but political, 2 April 2018                                                  41
23.       Is there an Indian 'deep state'?, 23 March 2018                                                      42
24.       A political army or an apolitical one?, 6 March 2018                                             44
25.       The Army: Introspection is warranted, 10 Feb 2018                                              46
26.       War in 2018?,  25 Jan 2018                                                                                   48
27.       Spiking possibilities: What is the army chief up to?, 4 Jan 2018                            50
28.       When Ideology corrupts Strategy, 10 Oct 2017                                                      52
29.       Pakistan: Not down for the count, yet, 23 Sep 2017                                              54
30.       Kashmir: From conflict management to a conflict resolution?, 14 Sep 2017          56
31.       In defence of Hamid Ansari, 16 Aug 2017                                                            58
32.       Debating the 'harder military approach', 4 Aug 2017                                             61
33.       An Army to fear: The Army's future?, 12 Jun 2017                                               63
34.       Reading the Army Chief's words,  8 June 2017                                                     64
35.       Ummer Fayaz: Another Kashmiri icon, 16 May 2017                                            66
36.       Kashmir's scenery makes its way to the 'hinterland',  9 May 2017                         68
37.       The hovering nuclear clouds, 25 Apr 2017                                                            70
38.       To the army: Any gentlemen left please?, 22 Apr 2017                                         72
39.       Terror: More serious than most know, 11 March 2017                                           74 
40.       Stolen gold: A ghost from the past that scares none, 24 Feb 2017                          76
41.       COAS selection and the doctrine of ‘relative ease of working’ with, 25 Dec 2016 77
42.       Saluting Bipin Rawat but with a caveat, 20 Dec 2016                                            80
43.       The nuclear doctrinal implications of 'surgical strikes', 15 Nov 2016                     82
44.       The myth of ‘strategic restraint’, 16 Oct 2016                                                        84
45.       How much of a departure since Uri?, 4 Oct 2016                                                  86
46.       India-Pakistan: In a dialogue of sorts,  23 Sep 2016                                               88
47.       A problem wider than Kashmir, 24 Aug 2016                                                        90
48.       A War at Hand, 15 May 2016                                                                                92
49.       Handwara: Going Beyond SOPs, 19 Apr 2016                                                       94
50.       Book Review – Op ed, 21 Feb 2016                                                                      95
51.       Gen Rao’s place in the history of Kashmir, 5 Feb 2016                                         98
52.       The conspiracy angle to the Pathankot episode, 7 Jan 2016                                 100
53.       India-Pak bonhomie: Can it last?, 15 Dec 2015                                                   102
54.       Is Mani Shankar Aiyar right?, 19 Nov 2015                                                         104
55.       What the next war spells for Kashmir, 4 Nov 2015                                              106
56.       Getting practical over an important report, 15 Sep 2015                                      107
57.       A cautionary word for the NSA, 11 Sep 2015                                                      110
58.       India-Pakistan: Silver linings and band aids are not enough, 7 Sep 2015             112
59.       Kashmir: Not the moment for a tryst, 1 August 2015                                           113
60.       Kashmir and India’s Muslims, 10 Jun 2015                                                         115
61.       Kashmiri Pandits: Undoing injustice, 25 April 2015                                             117
62.       Kashmir: Fifty years since 1965 War, 28 Feb 2015                                             119
63.       Looking Back a Quarter Century On, 20 Jan 2015                                               121
64.       India-Pakistan with Kashmir in between, 11 Dec 2014                                        123
65.       Hooda Walks The Talk, 10 Nov 14                                                                      126
66.       Politicisation of security and its consequences, 15 Oct 2014                               127
67.       What is Mr. Modi's Kashmir strategy?, 8 Sep 2014                                              129
68.       Modi forges a commitment trap, 19 Aug 2014                                                     131
69.       The echo of Gaza closer home, 1 Aug 2014                                                        133
70.       What the PM did not say out loud at Badami Bagh, 16 Jul 2014                          135
71.       The coming threat of politicization, 26 May 2014                                                137
72.       India's brass: What the controversy misses, 9 May 2014                                      139
73.       Second Guessing Modi's Kashmir Policy, 11 Apr 2014                                       141
74.       Kashmir and the bomb, 29 Apr 2014                                                                   142
75.       Pathribal: Back in the news, 29 Jan 2014                                                             145
76.       The debate between the generals, 13 Dec 2013                                                    147
77.       Ideologues as 'strategists', 28 Nov 2013                                                               149
78.       The expansionist agenda , 31 Oct 2013                                                                151 
79.       Vanzara gets it right: The meaning for J&K, 16 Sep 2013                                    152
80.       The LoC incident calls for self-regulation by the army, 13 Aug 2013                  154
81.       Distancing from Cloak and Dagger, 18 Jul 2013                                                  156 
82.       Implications of a NaMo foreign policy, 11 June 2013                                         157
83.       Daulat Beg Oldi: More than a storm in a tea cup, 13 May 2013                           159 
84.       Countering insurgency and sexual violence, 8 May 2013                                    161 
85.       India’s security under Modi, 11 Apr 2013                                                          163
86.       Lessons from Bandipore, 8 Sep 12                                                                      165
87.       Kashmir: More of the same, 3 Jul 12                                                                   166
88.       The agenda this winter, 6 Nov 2011                                                                     168
89.       Fixing responsibility CI decisions and consequences, 29 Aug 2011                     170
90.       Solving Kashmir: Feasible?, 9 Oct 2011                                                               171
91.       Acknowledging the blind spot on Kashmir, 27 Jan 2012                                     173
92.       Kashmir: Declaring premature victory, 2 April 2012                                            175
93.       AFSPA: A Question of Justice, 13 Feb 2012                                                        176
94.       An agenda point for the foreign secretaries, 16 June 2011                                   178
95.       Kashmir: Its now or never, 9 Dec 11                                                                    180