Showing posts with label afpak. Show all posts
Showing posts with label afpak. Show all posts

Friday, 2 August 2013

Af-Pak: A Strategic Opportunity for South Asia?
Ali Ahmed
SR87-Final.pdf
http://www.ipcs.org/special-report/india/af-pak-a-strategic-opportunity-for-south-asia-87.html
 
In the post-Afghan elections scenario, the US is contemplating another ‘surge’ and a rethink on its counter-insurgency strategy. Though the US is determined to stay the course, it may have to switch from a militarily dominant to a politically dominant strategy, in which case, reaching out to the Taliban will be possible. In case the Taliban were to abandon its al Qaeda connection and moderate its extremist religious stance as part of a negotiated deal, the feasibility of such a political approach is not impossible to envisage. The ‘surge’ could position the US favourably by enabling it reach a position of military strength, thereby facilitating the negotiations. The underside of this strategy is that it could result in an escalation of war with the Pakistani Taliban resorting to an expansion of the theatre of war into Pakistani Punjab, thereby, destabilizing the nuclear armed state. This paper argues that to prevent such an eventuality, the political prong of the Af-Pak strategy must go beyond the ‘moderate’ Taliban to also reach out to the hardcore Taliban. It calls for an ‘engage and moderate’ strategy. The paper makes the case that attempting to defeat the Afghan and Pakistani Taliban combine will place the stability of Pakistan at great risk. Therefore, accommodating it, in return for moderation, may be preferable. This however, could be taken to mean an undesirable ‘appeasement’, especially if the Taliban is seen as an expansionist force, incapable of reforming itself. The paper debates this and arrives at the position that the Taliban can be tamed without the undue risk that predominantly military action entails. It recommends a proactive role for India in bringing about a ‘political first’ strategy for the international community

Saturday, 15 September 2012



Prospects for UN Peacekeeping
 in Afghanistan

by Ali Ahmed
MAINSTREAM, VOL L, NO 38, SEPTEMBER 8, 2012
It is fairly clear by now that a draw-down, not amounting to a withdrawal, of the US-NATO force ISAF from Afghanistan is underway. The exit is not to be a complete one since the Strategic Partnership Agreement between Obama and Karzai allows them to stay on till 2024. This is to keep the Kabul regime stable and the ‘Bonn process’ on course but also in connection with the strategic interests of the US in the region, namely, Iran, Central Asia, China and increasingly Pakistan. Also, precedence from the nineties suggests that a full exit is not an option. Since pulling out would reveal the superpower has lost the war, it certainly cannot be admitted in an election year. However, the cover of a rebalancing towards the Pacific against China is a useful starting point to help the superpower disengage.
Currently, what the US appears to be envisioning is continuing blood-letting. It hopes to outsource this to the ANSF. It will employ its special forces from the bases retained, provide air cover and keep up the drone attacks. The US staying on may not be useful since what it has not been able to achieve in a decade’s untram-meled military operations, it cannot be expected to do with a reduced military presence. Since the Taliban has managed to evade the intended effects of the ‘surge’, at worst the likelihood of a civil war exists and at best a manageable insurgency.
To this must be added prospects of spread of instability in Pakistan. Currently, the status quo is a hurting one for the US, not so for Taliban due to its sanctuary in Pakistan. To bring about a ‘mutually hurting stalemate’, it may be necessary to expand the conflict into Pakistan, at the risk of destabilising it. The US’ current policy thrust to rush Pakistan into North Waziristan is to finally wrap up. The region shall be a likely witness once again to another Pakistani military operation, leaving that state vulnerable yet again to terror attacks on rebound.
Superficially, it would appear that a mutually hurting stalemate that signifies the ripeness of a conflict for conflict resolution is not at hand. After all, a superpower can marshal resources, while the Taliban has shown itself to be a resilient actor. However, a realistic reading would be that both belligerents need a helping hand to extricate. The allies of the US are pulling out. The indicators—such as drug abuse among troops, green on blue attacks, violence by war veterans on return to mainland America, isolated instances of soldiers running amok etc.—suggest that the US too is exhausted. As for the Taliban, at least two members of its top-line leadership have been eliminated this month. Therefore, there is scope for measures towards a politically negotiated ending to the conflict apace with the drawdown.
This is especially so if the primary referents are taken as the people, and not the states involved. The desirability from a people’s point of view is also not self-evident. Some would argue that saving Afghan women necessitates killing some more Taliban. In any case, it is not a factor that can be expected to detain security bureaucracies or the Taliban unduly.
It would be difficult to convince either side to come to terms with the adversary in the light of the war-time propaganda indulged in liberally by both sides. Likewise, states may envision an opportunity for proxy wars, such as India and Pakistan. India, for its part, is not unhappy to see Pakistan’s disruptionist energy diverted to its western border. Some other states, such as China and Iran, may not be altogether unhappy to see the US in a spot of a bother. It is also not self-evident that an energised peace process can help prevent the most likely outcome of continuing conflict.
While peace initiatives have been in evidence, these have been tentative not having had the weight of the US behind them till recently. The peace prong of the strategy has progressed piecemeal with separate initiatives in isolation of the other by the Europeans, Arab states and also the UN mission in location, UNAMA. The ‘Afghan owned and Afghan led’ formulation has failed to impress the Taliban. The aim of separating the ‘good Taliban’ from the ‘bad Taliban’ has also fallen short. It is only lately, when it was evident that the military surge had failed, that the peace process has been privileged as a significant line of operation.
It is well-nigh possible that, like an iceberg, there is more to the peace process than meets the eye. It is possible that the extent and details are under wraps to keep off spoilers. However, what is certain that it is not yet the primary line of operation. It therefore needs a fillip. The question is:
‘How?’ Conventional balance of power ‘solutions’ have had their play in the discourse. The foremost one of ‘military surge’ not having worked and the so-called ‘peace surge’ not having occurred at all; others only have the limited aim of keeping the Taliban off balance. They are conflict management answers. Such answers are more hopeful than useful. Conflict management north of the Durand Line not being inspiring, there is little to guarantee that a conflict south of it can be better managed. The inadequacy of traditional strategy over a whole decade means that sticking to it amounts to strategic vacuity.
Two points emerge: one is that the worst case scenario must be prevented; and two, that power-centric options are not the answer. The answers therefore are outside of the restricted confines of traditional strategic thinking—‘out of the box’. Such an idea will not come out of security bureaucracies; it can only emerge from elsewhere but would require to be taken forward by the state security establishment.
The ‘out-of-the-box’ idea here is the option of peacekeeping. The idea is in conversion of the enforcement operation underway there to a peacekeeping one. Peacekeeping presupposes a peace to keep. Currently there is no peace to keep. The stumbling block is the Taliban prefering to interface directly with the US and the US, for reasons of prestige, not allowing that. Both sides can be expected to project preparations for a post-drawdown Afghanistan as part of posturing and positioning. Such actions, being mistaken for or willfully misinterpreted as signs of ill-intent, prevent a peace process from taking off.
Peacekeeping, by enhancing the conditions of feasibility of the peace process, can midwife a peace process that can eventuate in peace. A precedent from the late eighties—of insertion of the UN Good Offices Mission in Afghanistan and Pakistan (UNGOMAP) to allow the Soviets to depart—exists. Only this time round the UN must play it differently.
Introducing peacekeepers into the scenario enables face-saving for both sides. The Taliban can claim it remains unvanquished. With security and space guaranteed, they would be more amenable to talks. The US, for its part, can have a neater exit. Since both gain something, there is common ground for arriving at consent for the mission.
The centre of gravity for such negotiations must shift away from the Kabul regime and the US Special Envoy towards the UN, supported by organisations in the region such as the SCO and SAARC. A suspension of operations agreement needs to be arrived at prior to troops getting into place. Peacemaking, with mediation by the UN, may be advanced alongside a comprehensive and inclusive peace agreement that is beyond the current ‘Kabul process’—the outcome of the London and Kabul conferences that were the political part of the ‘surge’ strategy of Obama’s presidency.
Peace monitors must deploy to oversee a ceasefire followed by a peacekeeping force on ceasefire. The UNAMA, that is currently a political mission in support of the state engaged in ineffective peacebuilding and protection of the civilians’ tasks, must graduate into an integrated peace operation. On the contrary, at the moment the UN’s thrust is towards a graduated disengagement and handing over to the Kabul regime. This is in line with the US’ aim of projecting an image of planned transition. This is a trifle premature.
If the talks prong of the strategy is to be energised, regional states must be ready to supplement, and if necessary substitute, the US. In particular, since who pays the piper calls the tune, funding may have to raised from within the region’s resources. This is where either the SAARC-SCO combine or the regional countries represented at the Istanbul conference of last year can assert themselves as regional arrangements taking on their share of the burden in accordance with Chapter VIII of the UN Charter.
The peacekeeping options broadly are: under regional arrangement, a regional organisation-UN ‘hybrid’ peace mission and the usual UN mission. The talk of Muslim countries sending in troops has been around since Bonn I. The force configurations include: a SAARC force; a joint SCO-SAARC force; a UN force comprising Muslim countries; a force sent by the regional states represented at the Istanbul conference; or a UN force from uninvolved countries.
What are the implications of this for India and China, the leading states of the SAARC and SCO respectively? As rising powers, they get a stage to showcase their power by turning round a situation in their backyard. They also create an opportunity for cooperation, which can over time avert the seeming inevitability of a clash between the two Asian giants. They can together save Pakistan from itself. What are implications for India? India’s self-interest is in seeing no spill-over from AfPak in Kashmir or on its social fabric in terms of majority-minority relations. Its reviving relationship with Pakistan can be taken to a new level. Its power aspirations can be better served. Its UN permanent seat campaign can be strengthened. The idea is in keeping with its strategy of restraint.
What are the prospects of this idea? To say that an idea requires political vision and will is to kill it at birth. However, little can stop an idea whose time has come.
Ali Ahmad, Ph.D, is an Assistant Professor, Nelson Mandela Centre for Peace and Conflict Resolution, Jamia Millia Islamia, New Delhi.

Thursday, 28 June 2012


The Exit from ‘AfPak’: Don’t Blame Pakistan

by Ali Ahmed

June 27, 2012

New Delhi — At its Chicago summit, NATO read out what has been the writing on the wall all through Obama’s first term. It is that its departure from Afghanistan is inevitable, with the addition being that it is now imminent. That this has not unfolded according to script is cause for some hand wringing among commentators. Ashley Tellis, Christine Fair and Robert Kaplan have in quick succession sought to point to Pakistan as spoilsport, with the former dwelling on Pakistan’s impending strategic defeat. Will his hope materialize?
All through the war in its vicinity, Pakistan has been scalded, but has avoided being burnt. The much reviled Musharraf took a wise decision by siding with the west. In retrospect, it seems as though it was the only choice he had. The blame for the west’s inability to push through its agenda of peace-building has been laid at Pakistan’s door. Its provision of sanctuary to the Taliban is taken as a willful challenge. Yet again Pakistan may have had little choice in this since it would have been unable in any case to wrap up the Taliban and their Pakistani affiliates. If the west could not succeed despite the ‘surge’, it is too much to expect of the Pakistan army to have had a better showing. From these two strategic choices made by the Pakistan army, based on a clear understanding of its limitations, it is clear that Pakistan can be credited with doing at least some things right.
So where does the responsibility lie? It is with Obama’s inability to convert the military surge into political gain. The surge was meant to represent the stick as part of a carrot and stick policy. It was to be supplemented by Pakistani army actions on its side of the Durand line, thereby choking the Taliban. In the event, the Taliban by forging a joint front with its ethnic fellows in Pakistan and Punjabi extremists, has been able to confront Pakistan with a dilemma: the more close it got to finishing the Taliban off in keeping with the desires of the west, the less stable it would get. The terror bombings in the later part of the last decade suggest as much. Pakistan, valuing its own survival above any doles the west could spare for its efforts, chose strategic prudence. Its holding out for an apology over the killings of 24 of its soldiers by U.S. forces at best provides a cover.
The gratuitous advice it has been at the receiving end of assumes that it could have gone the distance in taking on the Taliban. The west had got India on board to wind down tensions over time, after the spike in wake of the 26/11 terrorist attacks in Mumbai, India. This was to enable Pakistan to transfer its attention to the western front. Could the Pakistan army have succeeded as per western expectations?
Firstly, the terrain is forbidding. It has been seen in Kashmir where the going is easier and the foe is less formidable, that it takes considerable troop strength. Pakistan does not have those levels of troops, even if it could spare them entirely from the eastern border. Secondly, the tentacles that the Taliban has acquired due to anti-Americanism in Pakistan and religious extremism enable it to expand the arc of instability at will to include Lahore and Karachi. This would have stretched Pakistan’s suppressive capabilities to the extent of challenging their institutional integrity by internal ethnic and ideological fissures. If the Pakistan army cracked, then Pakistan could have gone under, there being no forces of equivalent strength in polity. This would have been to the advantage of extremists. That the Pakistan army judged the possible outcome and refrained from provoking it, is to its credit.
The expectation that Pakistan not playing ball has led to dissipation of the promise of the surge is therefore not a fair one. If Pakistan could arrive at a conclusion that it could at best be supportive and not hyperactive, the possibility should not have escaped Pentagon planners. To compensate they really should have weighed the carrot part of the strategy appropriately. This means that the peace process needed to have been an equally significant prong of strategy. It was instead geared to create fissures in the Taliban between the ‘good’ and irreconcilable Taliban. It was outsourced to the Karzai regime, with its notable legitimacy deficit as far as the intended interlocutors, the Taliban, were concerned. Their attitude was evident from the efforts of Karzai’s pointsman, Burhanuddin Rabbani, being rewarded with assassination. Only later, did U.S. special envoy Marc Grossman, the successor to Richard Holbrooke, get into the act; a case of too little too late. While it cannot be said for certain that the Taliban would have proved responsive, persistence with the military option, in the tradition of the actions post 9/11, foreclosed any possibility of finding out.
The US was either a victim of its own hubris or strategically ineffective due to its internal politics and institutional fights. Obama, having wound down the Iraq war, perhaps needed an arena to prove he was tough. The bureaucratic tussle, set off by the reaction to 9/11, between Foggy Bottom, Langley and Pentagon, played out in dysfunctional policies towards ‘AfPak’. The responsibility for a suboptimal outcome can hardly be laid at Pakistan’s door, even if, in election year, Obama needs a fall guy.
Highlighting this is important, since the refrain in the commentaries cited and extant largely is that Pakistan has stabbed the west in the back, despite receiving $ 20 billion as incentive. A consensus over the consequence for such double dealing is being built up in terms of pushing Pakistan over the brink, the euphemisms used being ‘containing’, ‘isolating’ etc. Pakistan needs being wary of an embarrassed superpower.  It can safely be predicted that the ability of the army to hold steady despite internal political disarray, demonstrated in weathering a decade long storm along both its external and internal axes, will now be sorely tested.
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Friday, 1 June 2012



AfPak End Game: Implications for Kashmir

By Ali Ahmed
August 11, 2011 3:37 AM EDT
NEW DELHI: What are the implications of the developments in the "AfPak" theater of operation for Jammu and Kashmir? In the immediate term, the question is consequential to the outcome of the current round of talks between India and Pakistan.
  • (Photo: Reuters)<br>Pakistan's Foreign Minister Hina Rabbani Khar
(Photo: Reuters)
Pakistan's Foreign Minister Hina Rabbani Khar
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On a wider note, the answer is pertinent in the ongoing end game in AfPak. But, for some, it is a useful question, since the Kashmir issue predates the Afghanistan problem. To others it is pertinent since the problem of insurgency in Jammu and Kashmir dates to the departure of the Soviets from Afghanistan. With the possibilities of a draw-down of US presence, increasing with bin Laden's death, the question assumes significance.
The Pakistani answer to the question is more pertinent. Pakistan's actions have so far been directed by its aims of preserving the military's internal hegemony, its nuclear assets and its position on Kashmir. It is unlikely to give up its Kashmir position for strategic reasons, too. It would not like the ire of anti-India groups directed its way, especially at a time when it is in the cross-hairs of the Tehrik-i-Taliban Pakistan.
There will, therefore, be no unilateral rollback of terror infrastructure as demanded by India. It reportedly has 250 fighters in Kashmir and about 750 waiting to infiltrate to set the temperatures for the summer's campaign. Forty have reportedly made their way in already, a figure provided by the state administration but disputed by the Indian Army.
Currently, Pakistan is not backing these overly since it is tied down on the western border, with reports on possible operations in North Waziristan increasingly likely. While a festering Kashmir does provide it an alibi against moving purposefully to its west, this summer Kashmir has been peaceful. This increases the likelihood of Pakistan playing along with the exit plan of the west in terms of prioritizing its western concerns over its own.
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What does this imply for Kashmir? The answer is already evident in Kashmir. It has had a relatively peaceful summer. This owes as much to India's preventive policing measures based on lessons learnt over the last three summers as to restraint on Pakistan's side in instigating its proxies. The talks between the two countries are the way Pakistan is seeking to keep the issue alive, rather than having it resonate on the streets.
How is the Indian security establishment answering the question? India does not believe that there is any connection in the solution to AfPak and Kashmir. It has managed to ward off US preference that a solution to Kashmir could help with resolving AfPak. The only connection India sees is that a reversion to the 1990s, in a hasty exit of the west from Afghanistan, could lead to a return of terror to the Valley.
India is in a position of strength. This has an intrinsic and extrinsic dimension. Its intrinsic dimension is in the positive trends towards normality in Kashmir. Terrorism has been nullified. Militancy is unpopular. The work of the army, led by a charismatic Muslim general, Ata Hasnain, is a big reason behind that.
Meanwhile, a three-member team of interlocutors, set up by the Home Ministry last year, has submitted six reports so far and is expected to come up with its final report by fall. India has not taken game-changing initiatives such as reconsidering the Armed Forces Special Powers Act. This indicates prudence and readiness for a rainy day.
The extrinsic factor is that post 26/11 re-engagement between the two states is on course. Prime Minister Manmohan Singh has accepted an invite to visit Islamabad tendered during the recent visit of the newly appointed Pakistani Foreign Minister Hina Rabbani Khar.
For the re-engagement, India prefers a credible interlocutor. Pakistan has sent indicators that the peace process has the Army's backing. With the initial round of separate engagements having culminated in the foreign ministers' meeting late last month, the prospects of the "composite dialogue" resuming are bright.
Tacit US prodding may have a role to play. Hillary Clinton, in her speech at Chennai during her India visit last month, spelled out US expectations, taking care to keep off Kashmir. She said, "Reconciliation, achieving it, and maintaining it, will depend on the participation of all of Afghanistan's neighbors, including both Pakistan and India. We all need to be working together ... We will continue to encourage New Delhi's constructive role ... We also believe Pakistan has an essential role and legitimate interest in this process, and those interests must be respected and addressed."
It is not too early to hazard a preliminary assessment. Pakistan, through its restraint in Kashmir this summer, has seemingly incentivized India to stay the course in the re-engagement process. For the moment, this establishes the commitment of its Army to the peace process.
India has, on its part, made corresponding moves on both the home and external fronts. The prospects now depend on how the US is able to engage and moderate the Taliban by deft management of the upcoming conferences in Turkey and Bonn later this year. In effect, the Kashmir issue is crucially dependent on how the AfPak end game unfolds and its outcome.
The triple bomb blasts in Mumbai was designed to stall any progress in relations between the two states, and it imply that the two countries have not traversed out of the woods yet. There is a need to move on the Kashmir issue, irrespective of how the AfPak situation evolves. India and Pakistan must stay the Kashmir course on an independent, if parallel, track in working towards making Prime Minister Singh's visit to Pakistan a success. (Global India Newswire)
(The writer is a research fellow at the Institute for Defence Studies and Analyses in New Delhi

OPINION
A Plan For Bonn
Domestic distractions should not come in way of the historic opportunity India has for turning the region around. It is time for India to take the onus for peacekeeping in the region and play to its weight.


Quite like 10 years ago, India has again gone empty-handed to Bonn with nothing for either of its friends, Afghanistan or the US. This is not unreasonable since it has limited leverage. However, is this good enough for a country that regards itself as a regional power?

It is being argued by some that there is little reason for India to take the lead. Pakistan is protesting the US attack on the border outpost along the Durand line by staying away from Bonn. It has broken off its initiative to get the Taliban to talk. The cracks in its relationship with the US are showing up. India can therefore coast along, goes the argument.
This is questionable. It places a premium on the US plan for the region working out. The plan is a draw down of Western troops over the next three years. With simultaneous bolstering of Afghan security forces along with whittling of the the Taliban, this is thought possible. At the optimistic best, this implies continuing instability to show for over a decade of military action in the region.

There are worse possibilities. The Afghan National Security Forces (ANSF) are unlikely to get their act together in time. Even the Indian army with a proven track record in fighting insurgency had found it difficult to train the Rashtriya Rifles as a counter insurgency force. To assume that the ANSF can pull it off, even with Indian help, is a trifle optimistic.
The Taliban may not prove a push over. In case greater pressure is applied on Pakistan to ‘go after’ it, it could heighten the backlash Pakistan faces with a little help from the Tehrik- e- Taliban Pakistan. The latest attack that has left 24 Pakistani soldiers dead can only harden Kayani’s resolve not to risk civil war.

It is evident that the US, itself facing a second recession in five years, wants a face-saving way out. Its European allies are exhausted. It is unwilling to pay the price of a climb down in terms of a super power sitting across the table with a non-state actor, the Taliban. It can neither continue the war indefinitely, nor bring it to a close. It needs help.

It is here that India can step in. It has kept up a low profile developmental contribution so far. Doing so has helped keep Pakistani paranoia under control. But with US intentions unlikely to work, worse outcomes loom. India needs to be more than a constructive bystander.

The Taliban having proven resilient implies that it is a strategic actor. India must establish links with it and ascertain if it is amenable to moderation. The Eid statement from Mullah Omar, that has strangely not found much traction in strategic commentary, can serve as a take-off point for reconciliation. A negotiated end to the fighting is a potential future. The sweetener on offer could be international commitment to reconstruction in return for a reformed Taliban.

At a minimum, India can assure Pakistan that it would not prove obstructionist in case Pakistan is able to deliver a moderated Taliban to the table. India must play its role as a ‘strategic partner’, prevailing on the US to also take a seat, along with Karzai if necessary.

India can take the idea further. The pre-negotiations stage of conflict resolution, leading up to a ceasefire would, to begin with, require insertion of blue berets or UN monitors. Subsequent negotiations towards a comprehensive peace agreement would require inter-positioning of ‘blue helmets’ — UN peacekeepers — for ‘robust’ peacekeeping. Finally, implementing the accord would require Disarmament, Demobilisation, and Reintegration (DDR) under UN supervision.

UN is over-extended with commitments in Africa. It would find it difficult to undertake expansion of the United Nations Assistance Mission in Afghanistan (UNAMA). It is here that India can make an abiding difference.
Along with Pakistan, it can offer a SAARC peacekeeping force in a UN-SAARC ‘hybrid’ peacekeeping mission. With the other two South Asian states among the top 5 UN troop contributing countries —Nepal and Bangladesh—alongside, Afghanistan can be painted blue. Troops from Turkey and other Muslim states can join in transforming the UN mandate from peace enforcement to peacekeeping.

Naysayers would have us believe that trust levels do not exist between India and Pakistan to take up anything jointly. The SAARC does not have institutional capacity. If the US has been unable to tame the Taliban, how can ‘blue helmets’ ever hope to? The gainers being Pakistan and the Taliban, the strategy sounds like appeasement.

All of this misses the point that the Taliban could perhaps be brought around. Militarily this is only possible at the unacceptable risk of destabilising Pakistan. The way out is political resolution. Both the US and the Taliban need to come round simultaneously, so that neither appears to be giving up. With Pakistan working on the Taliban and India on their mutual partner, the US, this is not impossible.

What is there for India in all this?
Acting as midwife for peace in the region, India takes centre- stage, playing up to its weight. Pakistan can be persuaded to let up on Kashmir in return. India’s economic engagement in Afghanistan is of such an order that it will continue to have influence, even with Taliban accommodated in the power structure.

India’s domestic distractions should not come in way of the historic opportunity it has for turning the region around. It should have offered this win-win plan at Bonn.

Afghanistan: Let’s try peacekeeping
 | 19th November, 2011
    6
With the jirga over and Bonn II at the doorstep, the US appears to be taking firm steps to stay on in Afghanistan in some fashion after 2014. Doing so may not be all bad if the fighting stops and the US bank rolls reconstruction. This presupposes a ceasefire and talks with the Taliban. The ensuing peace, peacemaking and peace building entails interposition of ‘blue helmets’ between the two sides. Is peacekeeping the answer?
What obtains now can pass as a classic case of ‘hurting stalemate’. This may not be a ‘mutually hurting’ one at the moment, since both the hyper-power and its asymmetric opponent have reserves yet. Nevertheless, the ‘surge’ having expended itself and the Taliban not having exhausted yet another empire, the situation exhibits a certain ‘ripeness’ for resolution.
Irrespective of whether either of the two would view it this way, the people of Afghanistan deserve a try at peace and Pakistani people must be preserved from further effects of instability.
The assassination of the government’s interlocutor suggests that talks have a potential. They need a catalyst. Peace studies theory suggests that if belligerents are unwilling to talk directly, as seems to be the case here, mediation can be tried. The UN has a special political mission, the UNAMA, in Afghanistan. Its good offices could be used to bring the two sides to the table.
Talking while fighting has been tried elsewhere, but doing so could derail talks. As first step, a ceasefire needs working out in the pre-negotiation stage. The trust levels between the two sides, understandably low after 10 years of mutual demonisation and war, implies that a neutral force needs interpose and monitor. This could be by ‘blue berets’, but that would be to expose military observers to undue risk. Instead, ‘blue helmets’ in ‘robust’ peacekeeping are the answer.
Coincidentally, the region boasts of the finest record in peacekeeping. Four countries of the region are represented in the top five UN troop contributing countries: Bangladesh, Pakistan, India and Nepal. At the recently concluded SAARC summit in Maldives, brave words were spoken in favour of peace. Can the states rise for action? Can the region contribute a joint peacekeeping force for saving a fellow SAARC state from further violence?
Such a force could deploy under a UN flag. As a rough plan, the Pakistani contingents could perhaps locate in Pushtun areas, the Indian deployment could be in the more peaceful north, the Bangladeshis can deploy in between and Nepalis in areas of Hazara domination. Muslim peacekeepers from Turkey, Indonesia etc can deploy alongside as the Taliban had once bid for.
As talks make headway with time, the South Asian profile of the mission can deepen. With India and Pakistan working together, as they have done on UN missions elsewhere brilliantly, the UN mission can graduate into a ‘hybrid’ UN-SAARC one having knock-on benefits for South Asian identity and integration.
A preliminary agreement could be arrived at, confining US troops to their bases. Taliban coming over ground peaceably would require cantonments. With fighting over, negotiations could then proceed towards a comprehensive agreement. This would require the Taliban moderating itself, accommodativeness by the other ethnicities, promise of neutrality and assistance by regional states, US draw down and demilitarisation.
This is an optimist’s future. However, the Taliban may prove obdurate; their al Qaeda allies would sabotage any deal; Islamists may prefer grinding the US down; the US may want an excuse to stay on for other reasons, such as Iran, China, Central Asian access; India could do without Pakistan at ease; Russia and China are not unhappy with the US predicament etc. For the SAARC idea to take off, its two protagonist states need to make up first. At best, the idea is premature. In short, a post 2014 civil war is inevitable.
Between the hopeful and naysayer extremes is the alternative of continuing instability. This is perhaps ‘good enough’, the young in Afghanistan having known no other reality.  An ANSF, ratcheted up with ISAF mentoring and Indian training, can take on a degraded Taliban. Yet, the expectation that instability can be managed can prove illusive. The future may conceal an India-Pakistan crisis; spread of instability in Pakistan; economic down turn affects; election-related self-centered US decisions; ‘black swan’ events etc. Outsourcing of the region’s future course to an external power amounts to abdication.
India and Pakistan are happy with the current trajectory of their reengagement. Neither is entirely unhappy with respective strategic circumstance. Pakistan is with fingers crossed, waiting for the US call to broker negotiations with the Taliban. India is preparing for it to fail. Both seem to think, and perhaps rightly, that they can manage the aftermath. Destructive and obstructionist cold war gambits are so much easier to play. Networking instead could reveal policy incapacities, power limitations, intellectual vacuity and a moral deficit.
In other words, peacekeeping is not going to happen. Not until people force their minders – governments and non-state actors – to swallow their ego and work constructively with the ‘other’ side. The idea is here, and so is the time.
Ali Ahmed is a research fellow at the Institute of Defence Studies and Analyses, New Delhi.
The views expressed by this blogger and in the following reader comments do not necessarily reflect the views and policies of the Dawn Media Group.