India: three scenarios out to 2030
The Kashmirisation of India, a
phrase coined by Pratap Bhanu Mehta, is well underway. The mayhem by the police
on the campus of Jamia Millia Islamia finally brought home to Indians in the
mainland what Kashmiris might be undergoing on a routine basis, flooded as
Kashmir has been with security forces for some thirty years. Alternatively, from
events in Uttar Pradesh, with its chief minister out to emulate the prime
minister in his initial days in the sun, it could be well be that Gujratification
instead. The prime minister complimented the police for its handling of the
unrest that resulted in over-a-score deaths. Taking inspiration from the
approach to rule of law in Kashmir and Gujarat, three possible scenarios lie
ahead for India.
The first is the visualization by
the Hindutva-vadis in which they gain their ends through polarisation. The second
is a contested one, in which the Hindutva rampage is checked by democratic
means resulting in one-sided violence. The third is a benign one in which the
largely Hindu support base of the right wing rethinks its ways, resulting in
democratic displacement of the regime at the next elections.
Scenario 1 - A Hindutva triumph
The Bhartiya Janata Party’s
eagerness to have a Congress-mukt
Bharat owes in part to its reframing of the idea of India in saffron colours.
It is also to defang the opposition, whereby there is no political fight-back
to its Hindutva project. The reconfiguring of the environs of the central vista
along the Rajpath is symbolic of the change to be brought about by the 75th
anniversary of the Republic and the centenary year of the mother ship, the
Rashtriya Swayamsevak Sangh, both in quick succession.
With most institutions (including
– to its critics - the judiciary) already defanged and netted, a definition of majoritarian
democracy will be deployed to justify further depredations such as the
onrushing nationwide National Register of Citizens (NRC). The vulnerable and defenceless minority will only
be further trampled down. If the Citizenship Amendment Act (CAA) faces such
ruthless implementation, what might be the rigour with which the NRC Citizens
shall unfold? With the articulate and aware segment of the community - its
student cohort - disarmed through ruthless means, the defences of the multiple
Muslim communities clustered around the country will be inexorably breached. The
final knocks administered would set in a flood of ghar vapsi, the choice being detention centers or a return to the
Hindu fold. Eventually, quite like Andalusia is without memory of the Moors –
which in the Hindutva imagination is a model for India - India too would be
free of the blood of invaders of the last millennium.
A minority community divided
within and unable to protect its pockets of habitation across the country will
be unable to answer the call for peaceful non-cooperation against the NRC.
There are several reports of Muslim readying their documents to present,
preparing for the worst. The saffron tide shall enhance to tsunami by several
gimmicks of the ‘triple talaq’ variety as the Uniform Civil Code, restriction
to prayer venues and methods, sporting of identity markers etc. The ‘Go to
Pakistan’ will currency with the argument that since India offers sanctuary for
persecuted non-Muslim minorities from its Muslim neighbours, Muslim neighbours
could do the same to Indian Muslims.
Scenario 2 – Hindutva contested
A contested ascendance of
Hindutva has the possibility of going either way, with the degradation of
Hindutva being as probable as its displacement. To preempt this, Hindutva
minders may resort to the patented Chanakyan tactics of subterfuge, dissimulation,
divide and rule, strong-arm policing, rationalization, propaganda, managing of the
external environment, inducement within etc. Ahead it can be imagined that
there would be instances of terror incidents of uncertain provenance, including
bombings, to enable a security blanket to be put in place before the rollout of
the NRC.
If the CAA launch has been
greeted with such angst, the NRC aftermath will likely be more volatile,
necessitating anticipatory measures of an escalated order on part of the state.
Tried and tested ‘black operations’ will be back in use. The dividend for Hindutva
perpetrators has precedence, including possible elevation to parliament as
compensation for their pain and risk run. The energy on display on streets over
the past few days after Mr. Shah rung up the curtains on the CAA-NRC in
parliament indicates that Muslims may be less than accommodating to the
one-sided brutalisation. There could be alliances forged in the struggle
between the underclass, including a Muslim-Dalit one, symbolized by the firebrand
leader of Bhim Army turning up at the steps of Jama Masjid.
This foregrounding of security
would help the regime with diverting attention from a tanking economy, making
for a self-reinforcing loop. The prime minister implied as much in his campaign
speech in Dumka, Jharkhand, when he referred to arsonists in clothes making them
easily identifiable as Muslims steeling his determination to follow through
with the two-punch combo: CAA-NRC. A tactical pull back followed with Modi
denying any thought of NRC, even though his government pushed through the NRC by
the backdoor by doubling the budget for the National Population Register.
Authoritarianism may deepen and
make academic the distinction between fascism and the complexion of the regime.
However, as the counter CAA-NRC agitation shows, this is not a Muslim-only
show. Most are out to defend the Constitution. The non-cooperation strategy can
be expected to kick-in, if it does not cause a dent to the ruling party’s
fortunes in the next elections, any repression could invite backlash. That
national security miinders are not unmindful of this is evident from Modi’s
reference to ‘urban Naxals’ at Ram Lila Maidan, a scaremongering on
Maoists-at-the-wings set to grow if the repression-alieanation-backlash cycle
takes off.
Scenario 3 – Benign exit of Hindutva
Neither of the two scenarios
above are edifying for a secular democratic republic, as being noted in most
capitals round the world. This should brighten prospects for the third scenario:
of a democratic displacement of the Modi-Shah combine at the next elections.
There are four years for the electorate to get its act together. The prospects
have brightened with the set back to the ruling party in Maharashtra and
Jharkhand. Returns from recent elections suggest diminishing marginal returns for
the ruling party’s tactics of polarisation. The post election farce in Raj
Bhawan Mumbai makes it possible to outflank them even at their Kautilyan best.
If they are administered a defeat in West Bengal and Delhi, It would keep India
safe from an authoritarian turn. However, this hopeful moment can prove as
chimerical as that at the Delhi and Bihar elections in Modi’s last term, since
the Modi-Shah-Doval combine can pull a Balakot act from its electoral hat any
time.
The electoral strategy
foregrounding the state of the economy, unemployment, farmer distress, state
pullout from education and health etc was undercut by Balakot last time. Communalism
and manufactured national security concerns remain handy for the regime. A
worsening economy can well be blamed on deteriorating security. However, in
this scenario, Hindu consolidation into a vote bank proves a chimera. Modi’s
antics around the coming up, through this term, of the Ram temple at Ayodhya
draw a blank with his development constituency. It’s very first promise of the
current tenure of a $5 trillion economy has already fallen flat. The middle
classes desert Modi for betraying his development pledges and making India look
small on the world stage due to demise of secularism and democratic credentials
on his watch.
What next?
The juncture of Muslims
expressing their reservations across India on a matter of community interest
after a quarter century is pregnant with possibilities. The threat posed by the
regime’s policies privileging its ideology over national interest is the
primary national security threat and must be securitized by being recognized as
such. The counter that its policies then instigate thus cannot instead be
vilified as the significant national security concern. In fact, the counter
must be seen as preserving the nation and state from a majoritarian take over.
Which scenario emerges as a
result would depend on how the Muslims take forward the counter CAA agitation
in face of the regime’s covert sabotage and vilification of the same. Muslims
standing up to the regime to preserve the republic could over time help the
Hindu brethren shed their blinkers. While Modi-believers cannot be expected to
reform, the Hindus who voted for Modi for his development promises have now
seen through his game. The Gujarat model is not so much in terms of Gujarat’s
economic gains under Modi as much as its manner of authoritarian rule and policing
extended to rest of India. Muslims then,
with students - and women students at that – at the vanguard, can emerge as the
heroes of the second struggle for freedom, this time from an authoritarian and
majoritarian threat to liberal, secular democracy.
