Jammu and Kashmir: It is in national interest to conduct elections soon
Early this week, the
Supreme Court dismissed
a plea against setting up of a delimitation commission to redraw the assembly
and Lok Sabha constituency boundaries in the Union Territories (UT) of Jammu
and Kashmir (J&K). It ruled that the exercise of power by the government
was valid under Article 370 of the
Constitution, as redefined by the Union government in August 2019.
Since
the challenge to the very revision of Article 370 is yet pending with the Supreme Court, the judges clarified, “Nothing stated in this judgement shall be
construed as giving our imprimatur to the exercise of powers under clauses (1)
and (3) of Article 370 of the Constitution.”
The judgement
is in itself not consequential to the political strategy unfolding in Jammu and
Kashmir. It merely put paid to a bid by Kashmiris
to stall or reverse the developments in Kashmir since the landmark reading down
of Article 370.
However, the judgement’s
explication that it has kept clear off remarking on the legal challenges to the
evacuation of Article 370 of its original substance of preserving autonomous
status of J&K has however lent some cheer
to Kashmiri political circles.
The contours
of the government’s Kashmir strategy were explicated at an all-party meeting in June 2021. Home Minister Amit Shah had put
out that the intention was first go ahead with the delimitation,
followed by elections. On the demand for statehood by the Kashmiri attendees,
Prime Minister Narendra Modi had assured that action would follow ‘at the right time’.
The
delimitation commission’s report was released in May last year. It met with serious objections from the mainstream regional parties. They apprehended that
election results were being gerrymandered, in a manner as to beget the ambition of the ruling party at the Center, the Bhartiya Janata Party
(BJP), of having a Hindu chief minister from the Jammu belt in place.
Elections
were expected early this year. However, there is little visible movement on
this for now, though new electoral
rolls incorporating an additional eight lakh
voters has already been drawn up.
It is not as
if the government is waiting for the Supreme Court to pronounce on the clutch
of cases against Article 370. Opposition leaders aver that it’s the parochial aspiration of the BJP is holding up elections.
The BJP has been
cautioned by the results of the District Development Council elections, held in late 2020,
in which a hastily-formed loose coalition of the mainstream regional parties,
the People’s Alliance for the Gupkar Declaration, pipped it at the post.
The recent
enthusiastic reception of the Bharat Jodo Yatra would have cautioned it further. Even
Jammuites too have developed reservations since their region is now exposed to competition and influx from
the plains.
Having
created an opportunity to wrest political power away from Srinagar in favour of
Jammu, it would want to clinch it by deliberate moves. But there is a price to pay in terms of
India’s democratic credentials.
Whereas
security conditions warranted prolongation of the last bout of extended
presidential rule in J&K between 1990 and 1996, this time round the
security indices are indubitably better. Any eyebrows raised if the elections
are further delayed may not easily be brushed off with claims that India is the ‘mother of democracy’.
Persisting inordinately
with the status quo in governance in J&K can impact the preparations the Modi government is making as the rotating chair of the G20
and Shanghai Cooperation Organisation for the respective summits in New Delhi.
Delay also
gives negative forces an opportunity to polarise the electorate. Killings early this year in Rajauri area and rekindling of the Village
Defence Committees in response, are indicative of avoidable adverse security
possibilities.
The national
interest would appear to be in conducting elections soon. While this may disappoint
the political parties wanting clarity on statehood, they have not made their
participation in UT elections conditional on grant of statehood. They may
participate in elections not only to keep the BJP from gaining its ends, but
also using their new perch in government, if they win, to bid more forcefully
for statehood.
This should
not deter the BJP. The BJP is also capable of forging an alliance on the basis
of a strong showing in the Jammu belt, as it has done earlier. The experience of the elected government in Delhi in tussles with the UT Lieutenant Governor indicates that control over
J&K can yet be retained by the Center.
Thus, as Modi
goes into his third national polls in 2024, Amit Shah could yet ensure a
nationalist-led government in Srinagar, enabling Modi to make the vote-catching
claim he has delivered conclusively on integration of Kashmir into the
majoritarian mainstream.
