Friday, 17 March 2023

 From the archives, 12 Apr 2001

AN ANTI-DRILL DIATRIBE

 Published in Infantry India

'Drill Discipline ki Buniyaad hai !' If that be so, then drill serves a purpose in laying the foundation of discipline among the callow youth who sign up for a fauji-zindagi. If that be so, drill ought to be confined to training centers and academies for that is where the foundation is laid. Beyond these institutions, it is the soldierly superstructure that is built up.  Since the practice of drill continues even then, the assumption is that drill has continued utility. 

 

Clearly, two suppositions emerge.  The first is that there is a continued linkage between drill and discipline; and secondly, that drill has a purpose well into service.  The aim is to reveal these as myths.   The requirement of doing so stems from the belief that drill is part of the traditional military baggage that should be confined to this century, if an army worthy of the challenge of next millennium is to be created.

 

If there be an established practice, it is only reasonable to assume that it once had a utility in the conditions then obtain­ing.  Should it be appreciated that these conditions have since changed, then the utility of the practise requires re-examina­tion.   The options emerging would be either to modify or  to iscard  the  practise.  This is the methodology that shall be applied in this review of the utility of drill.   There is a pointed effort at being controversial, in order to raise the reader response that may make this reconsideration of drill a constructive exercise.

 

The Utility of Drill

India has been (some may say-`is') famous (or infamous) for its mass armies that were (are!) top heavy and lacked mobility.   To wield such formations on the field of battle required set patterns and procedures.  The internalization of these was through the practice of drill.

 

The battlefield of the past comprised a peasant-based soldiery.  Given this social background, drill assumed more than   tactical importance.   It was also to ingrain in this illiterate and sim­ple-minded man the fact that he was a soldier.  Also, the feudal, patriarchal and patronizing relationships he was accustomed to, given his social origins, were reinforced by the symbolism associated with the ceremonial facet of drill.  This served both the feudal and colonial systems of the past well.

 

The technological revolution, then being in the future, had not done its miracle.  As a result the soldier's job did not have any skill that set it apart from, leave alone above, other occupations.   Drill served, at least, to mark the boundaries of the occupation, if not to set it apart as a profession.

 

From this historical sketch, it emerges that once drill had a three fold utility: tactical; for socialization; and social. It is posited that the military's professional evolution, in conjunc­tion with societal   evolution, has rendered this three-fold utility obsolete.

 

The Dysfunctional Nature of Drill

The paintings from the era of massed formations now hang in museums and messes with good reason:  it being that the values and mannerisms of drill are dangerous on a modern- day battlefield.  In drill there are massed bodies of men: visible, impos­ing, colorful and numerous.  On the battlefield, there is isolation, boredom, and absence of movement, dispersion and camouflage.   On the drill square, there is the word of command of a single commander, tiers removed from the soldier.  On the battlefield, is only the NCO, with words of command having no resemblance to those the drill square. Battle-field orders are unpredictable in being situation-specific; do not require to be articulated as such, for a football coach/captain’s method is initiative; and, any soldier better positioned by battle-field circumstance, or individual leadership potential may emerge as the leader of the moment.  Moreover by no means does the battlefield resemble the parade ground, with is pomp, splendor and color.   The mannerisms fostered by drill render the soldier a Fig. 11 target on the battlefield.  Lastly, if morale were sought to be built, displayed or tested on the drill square, then the absence of the drill square environment on the battlefield would puncture such morale.  The rifle that was used to present arms would now be required to deliver death.  The battlefield   will deliver a total culture shock to the soldier habituated to the drill square.

Now, lets dispense with the socialization argument as having outlived its utility. The question is:  What are the require­ments   of a modern day battlefield in terms of characteristics in a soldier? A look at the present-day battlefield scenario would provide the answer. The extant scenarios are - the LIC, the conventional, and nuclear environment. In all three, the battle is fought in depth. There is a premium on uncertainty-tolerance, initiative, small team action, dispersion and alertness.   The emphasis on infantry characteristic of self - reliance, initiative and adaptability gets accentuated.  The contention here is that drill militates against all these.  Drill equates discipline with obedience. The discipline of the battlefield is in initia­tive.  Initiative implies acting in consonance with the pre-set military objective in the existing battle situation.   Therefore, drill-fostered discipline is dysfunctional in its present context of obedience to orders. 

 

Discipline is obedience in the absence of orders.  If that is so, is drill relevant?  The emphasis of drill on uniformity, standardization and encouragement of `the SOP (set-drill) syndrome' cripples its relevance to the concept of discipline on the modern-day battlefield.   In fact, even earlier, it was who’s who were restless with peacetime routine, procedures and drill, which were the best performers on the battlefield. Thus it may be said that drill was dys­functional even then, in terms of socialization, for it fostered a peacetime mentality.

 

Repeated exercise is the literal meaning of drill. This is useful where the IQ or literacy level is limited. If the situation is no longer as before with regard to this aspect, is there a case to be made against drill as presently configured? Socialization in military mores today has to have a different thrust, but reflec­tion on that are beyond the scope here - the alternatives being left to reader response. A look at the present-day raw material is in order. Societal advance by the technology-occasioned telescoping of history has made available a soldier of higher IQ, aspirations, and corresponding demands.  The utility of drill to bludgeon the recruit/ cadet to fit a mould is now questionable, as is the utility of the mould itself. Professional advance has also now increased the requirement of expertise, skills and technical ability, enough to dis­pense with drill as the boundary-marker of an occupation.  The military is now a profession, and the soldier almost a profes­sional. 

A relook at officer mess paintings is illustrative.   Weather- beaten men, bedecked in brass, embroidery and medals, stare down balefully.  Contrast this with the sparse and modest uniform of the generals of the US and Chinese armies who came   visiting South Block recently.  The point is that, increasingly, armies do not   need the symbolism of accoutrements and appendages for underlining their calling.  However, while the armies qua armies may not, the states in the process of nation-state making possi­bly do require the sovereignty-indicating nature of military display on parades.  The question then is: Does a five millennia old India, or even its five decade old modern-day state, require the military to march down the Rajpath for the purpose?

 

Should our answer to this be a `No', in that, accepting the maturity, progressiveness, and stability of polity, then the conclusion is that   drill is wasteful, unsubtle; and, not required to emphasize the aspect of civilian control of the military, given the Indian military's non-political heritage and record, If that be so, is it not time for a relook? 

Clearly, institutional interest of those involved e.g.   Delhi Area, military bands, the pro-drill lobby ofinfantry brass and Academy Adjutants, will from the in-house opposition; while, bureaucrats wanting to keep alive the military image of foot-stomping automatons; the foreign ministry, eager to host a fore­gin dignitary for the Review; the municipality out to make their annual buck etc will form the external impediments.

 

Whereas nothing is opposed as much as new idea, nothing can stand in way of an idea whose time has come.  The idea is that  `drill must go’. Pertinent issues, intimately related to drill not discussed here include wastage of time, money and manpower to maintain brass and spit-polish; the adverse impact on joints (and the brain!) of foot-stomping; the rude handling of the weapon; the maintenance of superfluous institutions as the Quarter Guard; and, the public image of the military as dim-witted martinets who do not know the difference between `left-right'.

 

Conclusion

In short, drill is passé, obsolete, kaput, and finito.   What might the epitaph read?  ‘An infinitely useful practise that finally outlived its utility, circa 1999.’

 From the archive, 4 Jun 2002

CHANGE AND THE INDIAN MILITARY: THE UNADDRESSED DIMENSIONS

 This essay deals with the subject of ‘Change’ by avoiding recourse to the more popular managerial approach to it that generally confines itself to the amply dissected terrain of structural engineering; the optimal weapons and equipment mix; and realist inspired geo-strategic reflections. On the contrary, in order to illumine its under-explored dimensions it takes a ‘long and hard look’ at the changing Indian military in the backdrop of its changing socio-technological and politico-strategic context. The aim of attempting to approach the subject in this manner is to inform and thereby forearm the policy maker with sophisticated insights on fresh intellectual terrain. This has been necessitated by the absence of such reflection in the military literature churned out over the recent past.

It deals with the relatively under-exposed facets in Parts I and II: namely, the sociological changes required to cope with the ongoing RMA in Part I; and interprets the meaning of ‘apolitical’ in the changing political context in Part II. In the subsequent two parts, we examine issues of topical interest in a radical manner. Part III takes a radical look at the oft-discussed subject of Indo-Pakistan relations with respect to Kashmir; while Part IV revisits the nuclearisation instigated limited war doctrine. By doing so the essay casts fresh light on the meaning ‘change’ has for the military – an aspect dealt with in getting the four dimensions addressed together into a coherent whole in the Conclusion.

 

PART I: THE SOCIOLOGICAL CONTEXT OF CHANGE

The Society-Military Relationship

There are indeed portents of a generational change within the militaries on the manner of viewing and conducting war. This has been occasioned by the emerging technologies being adapted to war fighting, thereby changing the nature of the battlefield in terms of tempo, scope and relationship between skinware, software, and hardware. This aspect has not escaped the Indian military. In this endeavor, Indian society may be seen as being generally supportive of the military for the military has been performing its social responsibility with dedication and apolitically. However, the national trend is towards positioning India for an economic takeoff. To this end, the government, even at the cost of the military, is harnessing budgetary resources. It has also sought to allay criticism of neglecting military preparedness by an investment in the high profile sectors of nuclear and missile defense. The downgrading of the military sector over the past decade also owes to the cost-benefit analysis ruling out war as an option. Therefore, the military has entered the nuclear age in which the prime purpose is not to fight war but to deter it.

Therefore, the military has been constrained to cater for the strategic imperatives as also contend with ongoing low intensity conflict deployment within these resources. The incorporation of RMA related programs to bolstering conventional dissuasive capabilities is thus a relatively slow process - made faster in the short term by the fallout of the Kargil War. The onset of nuclearisation has made conventional conflict recede, though limited wars under its umbrella are not ruled out. Thus, though the RMA is deemed as required, its pace will be regulated by the availability of funds – rendered scarce by the current societal and governmental concentration on liberalization.

In the technological field the somnolent pace manifests itself owing to the primacy of the governmental sector in provisioning the inventory. This self-reliance has both prestige and cost related reasons. The traditional, post-colonial practices of the military are another impediment. This inertia owes to the size of the officer cadre and of the force. Reform can only begin by being more selective, down sizing and bringing in elitism and professional arrogance. On the contrary, the present trend is towards institutional expansion.

The Change Internal to the Military

A brief review of the internal changes necessitated by the RMA in the military is in order. There has been an import in managerial practices and ethos form the civil world, thus narrowing the peer identification between the military and the civil. This has led to a dilution in the warrior ethic, except in the sword arms where radical professionalism can yet be witnessed. However, the technical manpower having increased, the dilution is more evident. These technologists are not necessarily in uniform and yet have a greater impact on the battlefield beyond the horizon. Specialization is the order of the day. The need to keep this voluntary manpower in service has required requisite incentive be given. It is also being supplemented by the female induction even into combat support arms. For the officer cadre, the emphasis is on mental mobility and intellectual development, to include degrees in civil universities. Thus, the regimentation that characterized military life has been a casualty to the RMA. The direction of the future is to turn out soldier-scholars. The defining characteristic of military culture - discipline - would no longer be obedience to orders but be redefined to mean action in the absence of orders. 

Over the long term there will be a need to review quite a lot of what we take as granted. This could include the regimental system; our generalist orientation; the place of tradition and regimentation; our parochial affiliations to regiments, arms and services; the ungainly nature of our mass army – aging and top heavy; and the manner of training and socialization. The point to note is that there is likely to be a transition from an institutional ethos to an occupational one. The point is that we would require to preserve the essential features of institutionalism, for the military would still remain a profession that makes the ultimate call on the individual – to sacrifice his very life. With that assured, we would do well to support the occupational trends, such as a managerial orientation and ascendance of those technically qualified, in order that we assimilate the technologies better into war fighting.

Findings: Part I

In so far as India is concerned, there is some evidence to show for the revised approach to the use of armed force in keeping with the past trends in advanced societies. This does not amount to being ‘revolutionary’ in any way. Therefore, the typically Indian momentum is likely to attend the inclusion of RMA related structural, doctrinal and hardware reform in the Indian military. Given our technological potential, and the reach of our ambition, it is likely that this could be harnessed for military purposes. However, to call this revolutionary would be to overstate the case presently. In so far as the changes internal to the military are concerned, the onset of the RMA is visible. The change with regard to attitudes, behavior, and value systems is largely in the dilution of the warrior ethic. The institutional-occupational strain will have to play itself out for a new military to emerge. It would not be premature to now say that the brain would eventually and finally eclipse brawn; thinking replace obeying; a key board a rifle; and possibly a pony tail a crew-cut. As a last word it may be said that the RMA is relevant to the context of the advanced information societies, and has yet to acquire the same connotations and immediacy in the developing societies including India

 

PART II: THE POLITICAL CONTEXT OF CHANGE

The Change in National Politics

Two complementary trends in Indian politics are notable over the past decade. One has been the splintering of the center with the decline of the Congress and the second has been an ascendance of the political formations of the Right to political credibility. The reconfiguration of electoral power has resulted in an era of coalition politics. This democratic phenomenon by itself is unexceptionable. However, in the strategic community, this is viewed with some concern. It is conservatively assessed that this impacts adversely on stability, will and consistency in policy. Much of the discourse is along the lines that strong governance is thus compromised, with obvious implications for security.

Cumulatively the positions of the strategic community, the security agencies, and the interested political parties combine to conjure an image of ‘threat’. Whereas for the agencies, the ‘threat’ is largely in the external domain, it is not necessarily so for the parties concerned. The precedent of Rajiv’s Congress getting the largest parliamentary majority on the contrived image of an internal enemy aided by the ‘foreign hand’ exists. Thus, new sources to generate internal paranoia can be found, in order that new ‘vote banks’ can be generated.

The Threat to an Apolitical Military

A major problem area resulting from the contest in the political arena is the unwitting import of the same into the security agencies. The result of the politicization of the police is self-evident in India. An illustration of the wider problem resulting from such identification is in order. The German General Staff has been among the most potent war managing mechanisms the world has seen. Crippled by the Treaty of Versailles, it was eager to cut its teeth in the new concepts of the age of mechanized war all through the twenties. The political tumult of the Weimar Republic was ended by the rise of Hitler to legitimate power. He enabled the rearmament of Germany. This was of nationalist and professional interest to the officer corps. Their technocratic and scientific preoccupation with the tools and mechanics of their craft made them disinterested in the changing socio-political scene in their own society. The older general officers were gradually unceremoniously forced out thorough trumped up charges, one of which was even homosexuality. Thus came about the unfortunate marriage of convenience between the interests of National Socialism and the General Staff. The rest as they say is history.

The point of this narration is that history is for being heeded. The issue being raised is that there appears a need for introspection in the Indian context. Examples may help amplify this point. The popular position on various issues in the armed forces can be discerned by a textual analysis from the myriad professional journals. However, what is of concern is that even unwarranted presumptions that are now part of the wider discourse creep into what passes for strategic analysis. Take for instance the following extract:

 ‘Regardless of the differences with its hostile neighbor to the West, it is home to nearly 130 million Muslims. They are Indian citizens. While some of them may have been subverted by the blandishments of the militants, the vast majority of them have contributed considerably to the progress that India has made since Independence.’(Maj Gen Sehgal, (Retd.), USI Journal, July-Sep 2000, p. 441) 

Superficially this is unexceptionable, since the popular discourse has inured us to its troubling facets. The fact is that the retired General is linking gratuitously a minority to the coreligionist neighbors as though this minority has a monolithic national existence. Secondly, he further makes the subtle linkage of the community to militancy, propagating the lie that the militancy has none but the religious factor as inspiration. Thirdly, the backhanded certificate he patronizingly hands out is also questionable. Nevertheless, this tract has found entry into a reputed journal without critical comment. Another illustration will prove the point:   

‘Manage the perceptions of Muslim population of India. Wean away clergy and madrassas. Provide them with money, computers, and modern facilities. An in-depth policy of reassuring Indian Muslims should be evolved and implemented. Active participation of Hindu cultural and religious organizations in the process is a must. (Brig Arun Sahgal and Col Anil Sharma, Combat Journal, Sep 2000, p. 32.)

The perspective that these authors apparently subscribe to needs spelling out. It is that the Muslim India is a vulnerable and exploitable section of our society on account of the religious commonality with the Western adversary. The said neighbor is making inroads into this community with its premier intelligence agency, the ubiquitous ISI. Given that they are a potential ‘fifth column’, they require to be ‘reassured’ – lest they turn into one. Such perspectives are increasingly finding their way into the strategic discourse due to editorial oversight or complicity. Thereby they are acquiring an increased acceptability.

There are also instances of accepting, if not adopting, a revised symbolic format. An example in this regard is the installation of a religio-cultural image of the Goddess of Learning in the library of a leading military training institution, the Valmiki Library of the DSSC. The point is that only those images that contributed to the warrior ethic were permissible in public spaces. The problem is in the search to substitute the British legacy through idealization. This search is not unproblematic for it poses the question of defining the complex ‘idea of India’. It would appear that military ethos is now in danger of deriving its inspiration from the tenets of cultural nationalism, arbitrarily defined and non-representative. This may indicate a certain level of absorption of the currently popular discourse that is not necessarily in the best interest of the institution.

Findings: Part II

The Kargil windfall, and keeping pace with the ongoing revolution in military affairs, is likely to be the core of our concern over the next decade. The pursuit of this is likely to blind us to the soft underside of security, namely its societal context. Whereas this is indeed a democratic battlefield, it is not solely where the forces will play themselves out. The military would require to be more guarded in its environmental interaction. Additionally, it is but a reflection of or a cross section of society. Therefore the possibility of import of the ideological assumptions and predilections into military space is cannot be dismissed. This is more likely to be through default than by design. The moot point is that military socialization may not by itself prove equal to combat this. There has to be a concerted effort to do so. However, it may be reiterated that the perspective regards ‘Change’ presented is about trends not yet fully manifest. Therefore, it may not (it is hoped) stand the rigorous test of the future. That would be the ultimate testament to the apolitical character of the military. However, complacency in this regard could prove the point. Therefore, to be forearmed would entail being more alert to intrusions of ideological fallacies into strategic discourse.

 

 

 

 

PART III: THE GRAND STRATEGIC CONTEXT OF CHANGE

Kashmir Revisited

Kashmir has been central to Indian security concerns over the past decade, and therefore merits our attention with regard to the possibility and direction of ‘Change’. Keeping in mind the instrumentality of the army to political purpose, any revisit to the Kashmir question cannot be in a political vacuum. The Indian case with regard to Kashmir is well rehearsed. The main contours of the Pakistani animus are also widely acknowledged. Given the popular position with regard to the recent and ongoing happenings in Kashmir it is surprising that the popular position is not ambivalent on the extent of apportioning the blame for the state of affairs there. It takes cognizance of Pakistani complicity while being neglectful of Indian contribution to the problem. In being less than holistic such a position does not lend itself to rational policy formulation. It is therefore important to revisit the issue at this stage, for the military strategy cannot be arrived at in a vacuum or based on false premises.

Two points on the Indian handling of the situation are of pertinence. The first is at the political level, in which India has been reluctant to countenance movement on its position. Being the revisionist power, the status quo is not in Pakistan’s preference. The Indian stand is that it will not engage in negotiations at the ‘point of the gun.’ The Pakistani’s, fearing that India might resile from its commitment, are wary of giving up the sub-threshold use of force as a means of pressure. The present position in Kashmir can be taken as a militarized dialogue, one described as ‘the dialogue of the deaf’. The recent invitation to the Pakistani CEO for talks is an effort to end this stalemate.  

The second point flows from the first, in that, the Indian engagement with the Kashmir problem militarily owes in part to the ability of the military to deliver. The army’s ability to cauterize the problem has had the fallout in terms leaving no incentive for political resolution of the problem. It has thus been a victim of its own success. Militarily the price has been in terms of erosion of the conventional deterrent. The less visible price has been the political and physical expansion of the army resulting in an unacknowledged decline of professionalism.

Clearly, there also exists a military need to revisit the Kashmir strategy. Presently, the contemplation of military strategy is along the two lines of deterrence, namely, deterrence by punishment, as recommended by the Kargil Review Commission, and deterrence by denial as exists at present. The latter is as much an expression of the attritionist mindset of the military, as of the territorial fixation of a modern state. Both are identifiable characteristics of the state and its army of the now bygone modern era. The need is therefore to move beyond the baggage of the last century. Presently the impetus to this end arises in the disproportionate cost factor, in terms of strained finances, personnel policies and morale. Responding to the military logic of the situation by merely moving on to deterrence by punishment is inadequate, in light of the ongoing nuclear weaponisation in the subcontinent. The situation calls for a comprehensive reevaluation of assumptions, positions and courses open.

Rethinking the India-Kashmir-Pakistan Equation

Adequate literature exists to implicate the Indian state with regard to the making of and sustenance of the problem in Kashmir. Suffice it to mention that the India-Kashmir equation demands redefinition. This implies that the adversarial postures have to be relegated, firstly, as regards the alienated populace of Kashmir, and later with the interested party, Pakistan. With respect to the Kashmiri people it has to be a peace tempered with justice. A cause that exacts over thirty thousand lives deserves nothing less. The fruits of Indian constitutional existence, specifically democracy, have to be made available to the people of the Valley in complete measure.

The approaches that have import for South Asia’s future lie in the non-traditional conceptions of security. These include concepts as environmental, human, and cooperative security, while the means include multi-track diplomacy, economic engagement, cultural interpenetration and people-to-people contact. These have not found a constituency within our strategic community, enamored as it is with the dominant international relations paradigm - realism. In short, we are in a strategic cul-de-sac. However, with regard to addressing the Pakistan factor, substantial ground can be traversed. Specific contours of this in military terms are downsizing; adoption of non-offensive defense; sensitivity to the ‘soft’ underside of security; demilitarization of the LC and Siachen; military diplomacy; and confidence building in the nuclear field.

Findings: Part III

The inescapable fact is that the most irresistible thing is an idea whose time has come. In other words, the army will have to adapt to change, lest it be forced to do so by the circumstances. In order to maintain a measure of initiative in this regard, it needs to dwell on the contours of its continued utility into the future. Only the bare outline can be reflected on here. The future is of regional economic blocs. Globalization implies an interdependence that will constrain the military sphere. Traditional military power, territorial aggrandizement and bean counting are passé. The more aware populace is unlikely to want to be defended unto death, as the nuclear shadow portends. It is an age of ‘warless societies’. Armies are anachronistic, if not redundant. They will need to downsize, become less visible and take on new roles. Institutional momentum may see the present through the near term, however the future is already here.

The Indian army is an ideal candidate, being of the nation that sees this century as its own. By seizing the initiative, it will be delegitimise the Pakistani army’s hold over its society. This would enable the reclamation of political space in Pakistan by the liberal element. This would usher in the elusive détente. Such a denouement is indeed what Sun Tzu may have meant in saying that the finest victory is one in which the enemy is subdued without a fight.                                       

 

PART IV: THE DOCTRINAL CONTEXT OF CHANGE

The Onset of Limited War Theorizing

 

Only recently has the strategic community addressed itself to exploring the nature of limited war as applicable in the subcontinental scenario. Since this is a change of recent vintage it requires to be addressed in the context of our wider deliberations on the implications of the phenomenon ‘Change’. Here the logic of limitation is carried to its logical conclusion, it being at variance with the votaries of limited war theology. The prevalent logic is that, given the nuclear deterrence operative between the perennial adversaries of the subcontinent, there is a need to create space for the continued utility of the conventional forces in a conventional war, albeit a limited one. It is for that reason that the Draft Nuclear Doctrine posits that the conventional capability will continue to be well honed, despite nuclearisation. This aspect of the doctrine is challenged here by an examination of the problems of limitation in a conflict between these to nuclear-armed neighbors.

The Indian Position

First is an examination of the present Indian position on limited war. It borrows on the American definition in that such a war is one kept deliberately limited by an exercise of strategic choice by the political decision maker. The form of limitation may be in terms of political aims, strategic objectives, operational means and methods employed in pursuit of these, and with restrictions on spatial extent and intensity. It is worth looking at its chief characteristic – it being that it takes ‘two to waltz’ i.e. both sides tacitly accept and respect the limits. In other words limitation is a result of neither side escalating. The importance of escalation dominance therefore emerges, specifically that the restraint on escalation is a function of the belief on the insignificance of any gains accruing as against the cost of doing so.

The point to note is that this is a calculation left to the adversary to make. All that a side can do is to orchestrate the forces in a manner, and communicate the same to the enemy by tacit in-conflict signaling, so as to reinforce the perception in his mind of the undesirability of escalation. This is a difficult proposition for it is overly reliant on the rationality of the enemy and disregards the noise element in the signals sent.  This is the crucial problem with regard to limitation in an Indo-Pak conflict. 

The present position is that India must retain the option of responding with conventional forces should the Pakistani provocation in Kashmir cross our tolerance threshold. Lately it has been appreciated that Pakistan has upped the ante in Kashmir under the impression that the logic of mutual deterrence has raised Indian tolerance levels. In short, it is under the impression that it possesses escalation dominance with respect to the LIC in Kashmir. The Indian assessment is that the falsity of this can only be brought home to Pakistan by creating the strategic space to enable employment of Indian conventional advantage. This would be a dissuasive measure to help rein in Pakistani proxy war. This explains the recent Indian interest in limited war. The limits to the exercise of Indian conventional strength arise from the nuclear backdrop. The main implication of this limitation would need to be the discarding of the ‘Sundarji model’ of war making of deep thrusts. The limits could be in the form of limited objectives, shallow penetrations and nuclear non-use – given the problems of assessment of the Pakistani nuclear threshold.

Pakistan has for its part anticipated this well and has sought to deny India this space it seeks, by resorting to the NATO model of nuclear use – deterrence by denial, i.e. a doctrine that envisages the employment of nuclear means to redress their conventional disadvantage. They have tried to reinforce this by the ploy of ‘the rationality of irrationality’, by posing as a state that cannot be relied to see the writing on the wall. To offset this adroit bit of Pakistani strategic footwork, Indian Draft Nuclear Doctrine states that India would consider itself released from its ‘no first use’ pledge should its territory or ‘its military forces’ be subject to a nuclear attack. In short, this is an effort to gain escalation dominance by reliance on deterrence by punishment.

The Problems with Limitation

It is here that the plethora of problems that plague in-conflict limitation comes into play. The foremost has already been averred to earlier, namely, that it is reliant on the good sense of the Pakistani decision making elite. The pertinent point here is that this is an effort to call Pakistan’s bluff. In doing so it plays into Pakistani hands, in that it has to contend with Shelling’s concept ‘threat that leaves something to chance’ – the second fundamental of Pakistani nuclear deterrence. Indian political decision maker is likely to end up being self-deterred, for to exercise the conventional option may well be to take a prohibitive chance.   

The ‘plethora’ mentioned above must now be addressed. The foremost is the theoretical one drawn from Clausewitz on the inherent tendency towards Absolute War in the age of nationalism. In other words, limitation is rendered problematic by the political pressures arising in the involvement of the passions of the masses. This may be multiplied in our case given the demonisation that exists on both sides of the ‘other’. It is pertinent to recall here that in a leading Pakistani’s assessment one assumption that underlay the four wars waged by Pakistan has been the inferiority of the ‘hindu’ decision makers. Second is that most wars are begun with the assumption that they will be short, affordable and winnable. In the event, this proves to be unwise. Lastly, is that institutional pressure that may lead to mission expansion.

Having considered the strategic conundrum of limited war in the Indian context, it is worth considering the aims and objectives that may be sought. Clearly, these need to be consciously limited. This raises the question that if this is so then is resort to war worth it? Secondly, the sphere in which the decision is sought is pertinent to the assessment of costs. If it is restricted to the LC, then the mountain terrain will impose penalties in terms of time and casualties, as amply demonstrated in Kargil – where it bears recalling that the defenses were relatively under-prepared.  In both Siachen and Kargil, the strategic expectations from the limited war initiated by India and Pakistan respectively, have proven ambiguous in retrospect. If the area of conflict is across the IB then the subsequent observance of international law by a return to the status quo would not be of consequence enough to justify the war and taking of the chance of it going nuclear.

Findings: Part IV

From the foregoing, it appears inescapable that Limited War as an option flatters to deceive. If it is to be operationalised, then doctrine formulators will have to think through the problems raised here. The question is as to how to bring war fighting back into the reckoning. It can be predicted that resolution of this will be an Indian military planner’s nightmare. Therein is the challenge – to prevent Pakistan having its cake and eating it too!

Only the contours of the resolution need be addressed here, to prove the complexity of the task – doctrine generation being complex at the best of times as it is. The first is to convey unmistakably the Indian resolve to toe the intent given in the Draft Nuclear Doctrine – of inflicting ‘unacceptable damage’ in retaliation of nuclear use by Pakistan. This could be rendered problematic in the event of Pakistani use of its weapon in defense of its own territory, in its own area and against threatening military targets. Under such circumstance, we would be self-deterred not only from mounting international pressure but also from the incommensurable response of the magnitude of ‘unacceptable damage’. The only alternatives would be to try and prevail conventionally or use tactical nuclear weapons in return on enemy military targets. Neither is acceptable, the first being ruled out due to the domestic demand that we retaliate in kind lest we lose the credibility so essential to nuclear deterrence. Second, is limited nuclear war in highly populated terrain as the Indus basin would be a throwback to the days it was intended by NATO to stop the Soviet attack by tactical nuclear weapons in Germany. Escalation to the next step up the Kahnian ladder – city busting - would be axiomatic. The point is that the firebreaks up this ladder will not appear as pronounced to the politician as to the planner.

The second is the improbability of finding value objectives that are not likely to be unambiguously linked to Pakistani nuclear threshold. Threat to any such objective would have the Pakistani’s reserve the right of nuclear response, thereby compelling us to take what has been termed above as the ‘prohibitive’ option. Reliance on Pakistani rationality would be to impose our strategic sense on an unpredictable adversary – a cardinal strategic error. War being the extension of politics by other means; the political dilemma would then be to arrive at a viable aim. This is likely to prove elusive. The conclusion is that limitation is not an easy proposition, thereby ruling out ‘war’ as an option. This begs the question on the continued utility of military force as presently configured physically and conceptually.

 

CONCLUSION: ILLUMINING CHANGE

This paper has consciously trod the less beaten track in search of the parameters of ‘Change’ and their implications for the Indian military. The intent has been to illumine aspects that do not get the attention they deserve. This neglect is not due to any desire on the part of the strategic community or the military to water down the aspects raised, but are largely on account of the discourse being dominated by the traditionalist conservative-realist paradigm of thought. The alternative perspectives and prescriptions as dwelt on here therefore do not find adequate mention. The idea of doing so was that for finding answers in the dark, it is not enough to merely look in the area already lit up.

The major point that arises when the foregoing dimensions of ‘Change’ are dealt with as a whole can be succinctly summarized as: Downsize and Professionalise. The former imperative arises on account of the need to move beyond ‘mass’ – the chief characteristic of a modern military as against a post-modern one. The latter owes origin to the fact that ‘mass’ detracts from the levels of education and specialization necessary to professionalism of a military of a liberal-democratic state entering the 21st century. Downsizing can only transpire if we move on from responsiveness to threats to seeking to transform them, in the manner our look at the central military problems, namely, Kashmir and the nuclear issue (Part III and IV), reveals. The need for professionalisation flows from our examination of the sociology of RMA and the dangers of politicization in the current political environment. The   agenda outlined here is a largely an abstract one. The next step is to deal with its military specifics. Any delay in taking this step now cannot be for want of knowing which road to take!                                                                                                                   (Words- 5261)                                                                             

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                  

 

 

 

 From the archives, 30 Jan 2003

THE STRATEGIC ‘COMMUNITY’

Published in Pinnacle

The term Strategic ‘Community’, though a misnomer, has wide currency. It is the collective of strategic policy enthusiasts who variously reflect on, analyze, critique, pontificate, editorialize and offer prescriptions on security related policies. The policy spectrum over which this ‘tribe’ ranges includes fertility rates impacting on future demography to the clear and present dangers such as the Indo-Pak standoff of last year. Its members, self-styled for most part, are a diverse lot with qualifications ranging from internal and international politics, economics and technology to no particular qualification. They include retired bureaucrats and the brass, academics, media persons specializing in the security affairs and avid military watchers. This band has expanded of late with the sprouting of think tanks catering to increasing public interest in matters military over the past decade and more. Increased visibility has resulted from greater airtime on the numerous competing channels. Its influence on public opinion is far more than its impact on South and North Blocks. Their singular achievement has been in placing security issues in the forefront of the consciousness of the politically heavy middle classes in a liberalizing India.

 

The decade of the Eighties can be taken as the turning point in the way India views itself. Although it established itself as a regional power through its victory in the 1971 war and its nuclear explosion of 1974, it was only in the early Eighties that it began to act its weight. The missile program, implementation of the Indira Doctrine in Sri Lanka, coercive diplomacy in Exercise Brasstacks, expansion of the Navy, reaching the culminating point in post-independence defense budgets and being the second biggest arms importer of the decade after Saudi Arabia is evidence of India’s attempt at maneuvering itself in the Great Power game. The forex crisis of the early Nineties was only superficially a setback, for it laid the economic foundations for present day Indian effort at transcending the region. Lately, its stance on the CTBT, its gate crashing into the select nuclear club, its exposition of an expansive nuclear doctrine and gaining the physical and institutional teeth for its implementation have been acknowledged as evidence of India’s Great Power potential. India’s handling of the Kargil affair and the post Dec 13 mobilization and its flirtation with the current day hegemonic power, the USA, have underlined India’s security management capabilities.

 

These developments in the security field have attracted attention of the expanding middle classes empowered by the continuing economic liberalization. The incidence of the communication revolution and a rightward tendency in politics has ensured primacy for security issues. The widespread availability of information on security affairs can also largely be attributed to the spread of the Internet. Another more visible factor has been Pakistan’s relative insecurity in face of emergence of Indian power. Pakistani efforts to redress the power imbalance through proxy war have only served to keep security issues on the front page. Terrorism emanating from Pakistan has not only struck closer home but has also been beamed into drawing rooms, thus giving such a prominence to security issues that political parties are today basing election strategies on their commitment to security. Manifestation of globalization in terms of permeation of concepts of human rights and good governance has also seen increased interest on how the state tackles these security problems in civil society. Therefore there has not only been an erosion in the ‘holy cow’ image of security agencies, but also an increased felt need within them to involve the larger public in affairs of national security. Thus, we see a three-way interaction wherein the security agencies principally the armed forces, the state and society comprising the Clausewitzian Trinity have had a democracy friendly engagement over the past decade. Crucial to this interaction has been the role of the strategic community.

 

The strategic community has grown in step with Indian power and ambition. With respect to serving society, it has served to interpret the security conundrums, specifically defense versus development and democratic freedoms versus peace. Its self-acquired specialization enables it to act as a watchdog and adviser to the security managers. It has brought to bear on the regional and Indian situation the insights developed in the discipline of security studies elsewhere. They have served not only to inform the Indian public but also as interpreters of the Indian position in Track Two engagements with both China and Pakistan. The strategic community’s articulation and advocacy of a variety of positions ranging from radical to conservative has been of particular benefit in public understanding of Indian security compulsions. The public now has access to reasoned pros and cons. This has been particularly useful in gaining a near national consensus on the aspect of nuclearisation. The otherwise abstruse aspects of nuclear theology have entered public discourse intelligibly. This is not only in terms of arguments buttressing nuclearisation but also its critique, thus ensuring democratic health of Indian polity. Likewise, calls for increasing accountability of the state in the security sphere have resulted in the state acquiring greater depth through high profile and highly respected institutional innovations as the NHRC and the NSC. While public awareness and informed formulation of opinion is the ideal, some may interpret public participation in national security as evidence of an increase in democracy diluting militarisation and militancy in society. The fact remains that the intellectual space for both Karnad and Bidwai exists in the strategic community and this has the requisite democratic dividend.

 

The strategic community is largely anchored in think tanks, both establishment and anti-establishment. These have thankfully acquired a regional spread thereby breaking the stranglehold of Delhi based strategists on the field. This has been the result of vibrant communities of ex-servicemen settling down in places as Chandigarh, Pune and Hyderabad. The academic faculties at JNU, Jadhavpur, Allahabad, Jaipur, Pune and Madras have made notable interdisciplinary contributions ranging from international relations to sociology. Acquiring qualifications in security related fields by media personnel and academics in foreign universities, for example Shekhar Gupta and Kanti Bajpai respectively, largely through scholarships encouraging such study, has set high standards of participation in the discourse. Increased interaction between the intellectuals and security agency training institutions and liberalized sabbatical rules in an era of security glasnost has encouraged cross-fertilization. Memorial lectures organized for example by the IAF and the USI are indicative of the growing public interest. Serving service officers attached with think tanks such as the IDSA, the USI and not least the RAND Corporation temporarily form part of the strategic community. While intellectuals are no longer confined to ivory towers, the security forces are no longer islands.

 

Indigenous wellsprings to this tide in security affairs have origin also in retirees choosing to upturn the tradition of reticence. Most notable among these from the uniformed background are Generals Sundarji and Raghavan; from the Foreign Service are Dubey and Dixit; from the steel frame are Vohra and Mander and from the IPS are RK Raghavan and KPS Gill. Those who have helped navigate the ship of state through crucial waters as Gen Krishna Rao and Lt Gen Sinha have voiced their experience in print, thus bringing ground reality back in. Diverse backgrounds help flesh out the field; for example a scientist heads the quasi-autonomous IDSA while an economist headed the last NSAB. Most importantly, practicing politicians and parliamentarians are taking strategic thinking seriously. No finer examples exists than in the involvement of Shri IK Gujral, Shri Jaswant Singh and Shri Arun Singh in matters of ‘high politics’. Special mention must be made of the doyen of the strategic community, Mr. K Subrahmanyam, who can be said to have singularly kept alive strategic thinking in the years when studio hopping by would be strategists was not a cottage industry.

 

Foreign funding and academic interest of foreign intellectuals have injected energy into the discourse. For instance an American scholar’s thesis on the lack of strategic culture in Indians created a stir in the Nineties. The strategic community owes a debt for the insights of Cohen, the nuclear revelations of Perkovich and the interpretations of India’s nuclear strategy by Tellis. Speaking engagements in India by giants as Kissinger and Chomsky representing opposite poles of the policy spectrum have enlivened the debate. Contributions from the burgeoning Indian diaspora, such as from Sidhu and Ganguli, have helped deepen and expand perspectives. Certain South Asian faculties and think tanks in the US, such as ACDIS, Stimson Center and Brookings Instititutions have avid India watchers, run excellent websites on India and train young Indians aspiring to join the ranks of the strategic community. The advantage that foreigners have in regarding India is of objectivity, while the disadvantage is of possible motivations anchored in respective national interest. Their greatest contribution has been in placing India and the South Asian region in the consciousness of the Oval Office, the State Department and the Pentagon. This has helped forge the ‘natural’ alliance between the two largest democracies.

 

The three National Security Advisory Boards that have been convened thus far is evidence of the importance the government attaches to input of the strategic community. The Draft Nuclear Doctrine released by the first Advisory Board in 1999 has served to publicize Indian nuclear thinking. This healthy practice has acquired the form of a tradition with the last Advisory Board that criticizing the No First Use pillar of the nuclear doctrine, as also cautioned on the post-Godhra/Gujarat imperative of preserving communal harmony. Denizens from the strategic community based on expertise are chosen for various committees set up by the government, such as the Kargil Review Committee and the four committees formed in its aftermath on its recommendation. Non-formal influence of the strategic community is through informal brain storming and indirect channels as pressure of public opinion or from other political parties.

 

The growth of the strategic community has been an important highlight of developments in the security field over the last decade. It is reflective of the widely accepted understanding that matters of security cannot now be left to the brass and politicians alone. While theirs is the domain of security policy and decision making, public association with these, through enlightened mediation by the strategic community, helps keep these democratic, rational and objective. Clearly, the critique that India lacks a strategic culture has now been confined to the baggage of last century by the voluble contention between India’s homegrown hawks and doves. 

 


 From the Archives, 7 Jun 2001

J&K: THE PERSPECTIVES CONTRASTED

Pratividrohi

The Indian state has reinforced its liberal-democratic credentials by its surprising, yet welcome, invitation to the Pakistani CEO to a dialogue on the troubled relationship to include the salient issue of Kashmir. In the same breath it discontinued the ‘ceasefire’ in J&K against the anti-national elements therein. This ‘blow hot-blow cold’ policy has been a fixture in Indian approach to J&K (if not to security itself), right since 26 Oct 1947 when Nehru promised a reference to the people of J&K of their ruler’s accession to the Union of India even as the Indian Army readied to move to rescue them from the tribal invasion.

Ever since, India’s actions have been under scrutiny from both quarters of the security spectrum – the conservative and the liberal. This is unexceptionable for it indicates the democratic health of a polity wherein an influential security debate is cacophonic at the best of times, and sometimes polemical. Navigating through this, the stewardship of the Indian state acquires the surreal quality of pachydermic progression – accurately summed up in the cliché ‘muddling along’. Such an approach is perhaps a humane way to tackle the complexity of the uniquely Indian condition – that of a state encompassing a continent. This essay seeks to discuss the J&K problem in light of the debate between the two schools of thought.

The Realist Critique and the Rationalist Response

The realist critique[1] has its origin in the conservative perspective. It defines the problem as one of Pakistani creation and sustenance and consequently only amenable to a military solution. On the recent efforts towards a negotiated peace, it has two major reservations. One is that it questions the viability of the Pakistani state as an interlocutor, given that it is a ‘failed’/’failing’ state. With the fundamentalism becoming increasingly autonomous both within Pakistan and in J&K, appeasement through talks is not the answer. Secondly, it notes that peace talks send disorientating signals to security forces, for they necessarily require a nuanced control of military operations for tacit bargaining.

With regard to the assertion that peace initiatives through political dialogue with the militant groupings tantamount to ‘appeasement’, three points raised by the rationalist school need to be noted. One is that it would be a symptom of a militarized polity, and worse a militarisation of society, should this not be undertaken. It is beholden on a liberal-democratic system to search for solutions outside the military template, even if the same is simultaneously operative.  The state has to be responsive to the urge in civil society to retrieve the situation. Second is that not doing so is to put too large a premium on a military solution. It can be empirically demonstrated that the search for the elusive military ‘victory’ is to chase a receding horizon. The outgoing Army Chief, Gen. VP Malik, said as much in relinquishing command in highlighting the need for a political solution. Lastly, there is a need to operationalise strategies originating in the peace studies discourse. This is occasioned by the fact that these may offer hitherto untested avenues of exit from quagmires of violence. Whereas most of the theorizing is of recent vintage, the original counter-insurgency doctrines of the era of decolonisation also give preeminence to the political over the military.

In so far as the present peace inititative goes it is in the long sequence of efforts to bring back normalcy to J&K that began with the elections of 1996. The argument here is that indications are that the affected people are so inclined. It is therefore incumbent on a representative government to seek to materialize the inchoate articulations of a people in the midst of what amounts to a human tragedy. Secondly, the military has had a fair share of autonomy to combat the anti-national menace there, and continues to do so. Any constraints (e.g. the necessity to use minimum force) are inherent in the situation wherein the operations were incident in demographic terrain.

The Wider Debate

In the realist perspective, aid and abatement by Pakistan as per a supposed plan (Op Topac to some!) led to the onset of the ‘terror’ in J&K. Pakistan has sought to undercut India by tying Indian conventional superiority down in a low cost ‘proxy war’. Therefore, since violence is the language of power that the Pakistanis have chosen, the Indian response has to be appropriately framed in a language they understand. The Kashmiri input into the unrest is declining for the foreign islamists have hijacked the issue for the greater glory of their brand of islam. This indicates that the geo-political ends of the Pakistani state are only part of the problem – the more pertinent part is now that of radical islam. Pakistan is unlikely to restrain the ‘jehadis’, given its fear that that they can well turn against it, and in so doing deal a deathblow to the quasi-modernist order in Pakistan. The answer is therefore to ensure the defeat of these forces, thereby gaining moral ascendancy and conveying a message to this hydra-headed threat on Indian resolve.

On the contrary, the rationalist viewpoint focuses more on the domestic politics angle, and lays a considerable proportion of the blame on our mismanagement of the sensitive border state. In this interpretation, once the militancy had erupted in an initial bout of active people’s participation, it was seized on by Pakistan for its own strategic ends. The importance of acknowledging Indian contribution to the problem lies in the premium thence laid on the need for a peaceable solution. In rationalist argumentation continued Kashmiri involvement is given greater credence. The statistics in terms of the dead/apprehended indicate that armed action by disaffected Kashmiris has not ended, for up to two thirds of the militants are indigenous. This constituency, being made up of Indian citizens (as against the ‘foreign mercenaries’), requires a moderate approach by a representative government. In so far as the foreign militants are concerned, the military operations have to be progressed in a people-friendly fashion. This may entail difficulty in operational translation, but this is not beyond the tested professionalism of the redoubtable Indian military.

Suffice it to point out that the Kashmiri participation is what gives the problem the dimensions of an insurgency, as against it being characterized solely as  ‘terrorist’. However, the incidence of concomitant terrorism in demographic terrain requires that the counter is more mindful of the human environment. Therefore, the space created by the security forces in their containment of the insurgency cum terrorism needs to be exploited for initiation of a purposeful dialogue that may be within the constitution or within the limits of ‘insaniyat’ (norms of humanity). This is the rationale of the dual track approach of India in appointing Mr. Pant as the nodal negotiator. National interests being permanent, pursuit of the same required movement on the intractable issue of Kashmir after a hiatus of in official contacts with the military regime in Pakistan. These are seen as best met when negotiating from a position of strength. The sense in doing business with a military head of Pakistan is that ultimately it is the military that decides, and will be unlikely to sabotage its own decisions. This is lesson has been well learnt from the collapse of the Lahore Process. 

The ‘Core’ Issue

To the realists this amounts to ‘chasing a chimera’. Kashmir is merely a symptom of a larger phenomenon. The main problem to them is the ascendance of the fundamentalists in Pakistan and the afghan-taliban regime. The threat is in the importation of the same into our land through the aegis of vulnerable sections of our minority communities. Evidence of a ‘strategic penetration and encirclement’ is mounting. The Pakistani strategic purpose of an India at war with itself will be served if India were to engage and thereby embolden these forces.

In the rationalist position, the rogue state on the block that is the fount of religious fanaticism - taliban’s Afghanistan – is seen in different light. The taliban is seen as having diverted some of its radical energy against an India that it sees as part of the concert of powers that is denying it its due. It is moot that a satiated Afghan regime, even if it is a taliban one, is in Indian interests – for it is likely to be more of a problem for Pakistan. The present symbiotic linkages between the two will likely unravel, with the Pakhtunistan issue coming to the fore. Even our realist lore, in the form of the Kautilya’s mandala philosophy, suggests we befriend a neighbor’s neighbor.

On the problem of minority management, the rationalists have different take. The viewing of the minority issue as security issue leads to a self-fulfilling prophecy, wherein its suspect bonafides gives the minority a complex. This suits both majority and minority communalisms, for they represent the same ideology of identity politics. This may be exploited by the ISI as part of its mandate. Since security analysts are deemed to indulge in apolitical commentary, the danger is in their version being distorted, for it highlights only the role of the ISI at the expense of the local political dynamics,. It is for this reason that the uncritical acceptance of the reach of the ISI prevalent in realist discourse is dangerous.

The linkage is generally made that the minorities may suffer a backlash should the state offer any concessions in arriving at an amicable solution to the J&K problem. This is has two counter-arguments. One is that the Kashmiris and the coreligionist minorities elsewhere in India are held as mutual hostages to stymie any imaginative political and constitutional breakthrough on the Kashmir issue. Secondly, by way of analogy, it may legitimize the false belief that led to the 1984 anti-sikh riots – that ordinary Sikhs elsewhere were in some way implicated in the heinous act of their coreligionists. Therefore not only is such linkage contrived, it is also dangerous.

Conclusion

The realist formulation on security issues has been the dominant one in the national security discourse, ever since the onset of the 1962 syndrome. It is rigorous for it has the adherence of committed exponents who form the majority of the strategic community, some of whom have held office dealing with the security function of the state. It also has institutional support for the agencies charged with the social responsibility of security for state and society. However, the rationalist’s activist counter has the force of moral authority. Firstly, the credit for India’s just claim to have dealt with the problem humanely (in comparison with the manner other such instances have been tackled elsewhere from Algeria to Chechenya) lies in part with the rationalist school that has acted as the self-styled liberal conscience of the nation. Secondly, it has enabled the marshalling of forces in favor of dialogue, both in India and Pakistan - the latter through the Track Two initiatives.

Rightly the Indian state has approached the problem along both tracks, mindful of the strengths of both perspectives. Inevitably, its bifocal perspective has pleased neither completely. In keeping with the principal point of counter-insurgency theory, it is mindful that each insurgency is different, requiring a case specific approach. For the security forces this implies operations in keeping with the trusted WHAM principles; for the government it implies persisting with the political prong of the counter-insurgency effort.               


[1] For a sample of the realist critique, refer KPS Gill and Ajai Sahni, ‘The J&K Peace Process: Chasing the Chimera’; Faultlines, Volume 8, pp. 1-40. This paper attempts to provide a divergent perspective on certain points that appear in this article, and in strategic literature elsewhere. It is a debate that should rightly find reflection in the premier in-service journal on counter-terrorism and insurgency, Pratividrohi.