Showing posts with label LADAKH. Show all posts
Showing posts with label LADAKH. Show all posts

Saturday, 30 November 2024

 https://substack.com/home/post/p-152354915

Disengagement to de-escalation
Military lessons-learnt alone won’t do
https://kashmirtimes.com/disengagement-to-de-escalation-in-ladakh/ Disengagement to de-escalation Military lessons-learnt alone won’t do Kashmir Times, 2 Dec 24https://aliahd66.substack.com/p/disengagement-to-de-escalation

An early bird, the best National Security Adviser India never had, General Hooda, lists four military lessons from the recent step back in Ladakh: one, get intelligence analysis right; two, get contingency planning in place; three, get a realistic fix on relative capabilities; and, four, ‘rebuild’ deterrence against Chinese military coercion by communicating that redlines will be met by a ‘decisive and visible’ response.

Cumulatively, these steps could presumably defuse into the future the four possible explanations of the Chinese intent behind the provocation in Ladakh: one, to snap back against Indian infrastructure developments; two, to gain territorial control; three, to broadcast regional dominance; and, four, to influence India’s strategic relationships.

Here I undertake a reality check on Hooda’s unimpeachable case for a rebuilding of deterrence.

The four lessons reconsidered

The first on the (wish)list is sound intelligence analysis. As with the Kargil intelligence debacle, information did trickle in but did not inspire a scramble. However, this time round no intelligence review has been done. Sans any effort at accountability, even if a better look onto the Tibetan plateau and beyond - with a leg-up by a strategic partner - strategic intelligence will likely continue to be hobbled. Operational level intelligence - necessary to trigger preemptive or responsive action - will therefore unlikely be spurred.

Contingency plans are likely in hand, given additional troops and information periodically put out on exercises. The problem however is not with readiness as much as resolve.

Surely, Fire and Fury corps, as it was configured pre-Galwan, had the wherewithal to spring a counter grab action. The same could have been conducted anywhere else along the eastern front (then under the current Chief of Defence Staff). Covid outbreak is but a fig leaf, since Ladakh was in any way winter cut-off and had is integral resources in place.

So, it’s not so much capability, but delegation that is a problem.

The problem will likely remain. General Naravane’s recall of the hotspot atop Kailash range is a case to point. Extracts from his memoirs – since held up in the works – have him reaching for the defence minister, when the Chinese reactively clambered uphill from their side. Apparently, the answer he received was ‘jo ucchit samjhe, karo’ (‘do as your wont’).

Clearly, preparedness can incentivize action only up to a point. Will to shoulder the consequence and unintended consequences must be demonstrated by matching delegative power with redlines.

Hooda’s third lesson carries two examples of the Indian perception of Chinese capability. Apparently, pre-Galwan, there was a belief in an Indian advantage in the air and adeptness in mountain warfare. The two should have instigated a vigourous response to Chinese provocation. In effect, the assumptions turned out as vapid as General Ayub Khan’s pre-1965 views of the Indian military.

Now that Chinese have caught up on both counts, and are amply ahead on parameters as infrastructure, advantaged as they are by terrain, and technology – if Pravin Sawhney is to be believed - India is left without comforting assumptions. When it couldn’t take the cue of wishful assumptions, why will a better fix on relative capability today spur action?

On to General Hooda’s fourth ask: ‘a successful deterrence strategy rests on three critical pillars, often called ‘3C’s - capability, communication and credibility.’ Credibility is based on resolve. Resolve is but synchronized military capability and political will.

That the counter in 2020 - though a great logistic feat - was operationally reactive, shows that though adequately poised (it had a decade of military buildup in Ladakh behind it and a nationalist government into its second term), India was not able to deliver a credible counter. Neither parameter – military capability and political will – having changed relatively since, how can deterrence find itself ‘rebuilt’?

Deterrence of what?

Deterrence is to prevent harm on oneself by creating the perception that the action will prove futile or will invite like or disproportionate hurt on the perpetrator. For now, self-evident is India’s potential for deterrence by denial.

Having achieved its objective of having India respect its territorial claims through springing the crisis and the gambit of interminable talks, China is satiated territorially. Since it has no further territorial intent in Ladakh, a capability for deterrence by denial has only a limited benefit, restricted to preserving an ability to protect existing infrastructure, and that yet to come up if not effected by unrevealed compromises at the parlays.

Contrarily, India needs a capability for deterrence by punishment, a better heft on tackling the other three explanations of the crisis and likely to persist into the future.

India has exerted a capability for deterrence by punishment - or ability to up the military ante - to bring home to the Chinese that disengagement is in the interest of both states. Its showing on Kailash range amounted to this.

It may yet need to show military muscle to influence talks to go beyond their current enabling of patrolling access at merely two of the friction points. There are three other friction points where buffer zones have to be rolled back to open up patrolling points.

A deterrence by punishment capability serves to deter Chinese adventurism in search of regional dominance. With 17 Corps coming into its own, and the Uttar Bharat Area being converting to an operational corps, and incipient steps to theaterisation in the works, China must be wary. At the cusp of super-powerdom it would unlikely wish to be defrocked.

The third explanation is regards Chinese messaging India against too close a relationship with the United States. The latter might be more pronounced as the Trump Presidency kicks in, wherein, to cosy up to the Russians, he is liable to be more assertive with the Chinese. Given India’s past propensity (‘Ab ki baar, Trump Sarkar’, ‘Namaste Trump’), it is liable to fall in line, with a need for external balancing as cover. This would necessitate preparedness at a higher notch.

By this yardstick, the step after disengagement - de-escalation – must only be selective and partial. The ‘new normal’ must see India’s capability for deterrence by punishment in place, with its contingencies well practiced. Even so, a military doing its bit is never enough.

Realistic?

The problem with intelligence setup is set to remain. The military can expect to be let down with a recurring lack in strategic intelligence. Recall how the hype around two rounds of personalized diplomacy – Wuhan and Chennai – failed miserably to pick up signals of Chinese reneging. With the same narrative employed yet again before Kazan, the intelligence subsystem of national security will likely fall in step with the political narrative, stemming ostensibly from need for an economic reopening to the Chinese behemoth.

The larger problem is with political reluctance in reconciling with playing second string in global affairs. It does not go well with the ideological beliefs of the regime in place and its domestic posturing. Yet, it cannot afford being upended, like was Nehru, during its national majoritarian project. Consequently, it would unlikely countenance a military distraction, whatever the cost in national interest. It follows that expecting delegative authority for activating contingency responses is mite too much. Expect instead dilution in deterrence by appeasement: much fury, no fire.

Tuesday, 8 June 2021

http://www.kashmirtimes.com/newsdet.aspx?q=110455 

An assessment of new ‘strategies’ for Pakistan and China

A report in The Print informs citing sources that the Indian army has come up with new strategies for Pakistan and China that it respectively calls ‘punitive deterrence’ and ‘credible deterrence’. The new posture is result of the rebalancing on since last year after China’s foray into Ladakh from the western front to the northern front.

Deterrence is prevailing on the adversary against taking action that it would either be punished for or find relatively costly. Punitive deterrence would imply deterrence by punishment, in that India would retaliate heavily in case of Pakistani military misadventure. Whereas for the China front, credible deterrence is based on deterrence by denial predicated on India making it prohibitive for China to bite of territory by effective defence, besides retaining the capability to make equivalent gains elsewhere to neutralize any Chinese designs on Indian territory.

The tumult involves restructure of the infantry elements of a strike corps in the plains into a second mountain strike corps (MSC), the first MSC having witnessed its raising truncated through last decade. Also, the concept of integrated battle groups (IBGs), having been tried out over last few years, is to be operationalised across both fronts. Alongside, there is a bid for more monies for defence, with the army asking for some 1700 tanks and the artillery that there is no disruption to artillery modernization.   

The ‘sources’ who put out this significant change into the open domain have taken care to preempt any possibility of a course correct that the pandemic and our tepid response provided. To them, ‘more of the same’ is necessary to emphasise in order to undercut any thought of doing things differently post pandemic. That India’s health and social security infrastructure was revealed as hollow by covid wave II necessitates a rethink on India’s priorities, which such reinsertion of militarized discourse into the national cognitive domain prevents.

There is little that has changed in the supposed military changes underway.

On the western front, it remains unclear how over the short term, punitive deterrence will be exercised with the third strike corps. The advantage of being one-up on Pakistan had enabled the conventional asymmetry (ours three to their two strike corps). With the infantry elements reassigned to the northern front as part of the MSC, the infantry would require to be recreated. Over the long term it is predictable that the army will recoup the infantry elements of the strike corps. Precedence can be seen in the army filling in the gaps that arose due to the raising of the Rashtriya Rifles by poaching their numbers from the regular army. As a result it now has 60 battalions of infantry reserve. The central police forces having been extensively deployed in Kashmir since mid 1999, occasioned by the disembowelment of Article 370, are in a position to relieve the Rashtriya Rifles, which can in turn relieve the infantry from the Line of Control, thereby creating the infantry needed by the third strike corps when warranted. The temporary short term premium on infantry is thus chimerical.

Against China, the preexisting posture of deterrence manifestly failed, though the IBG concept had been proven in an exercise in Arunachal Pradesh by the time the Chinese and covid intervened early last year. It was a force in being that could have been used at the outset of the crisis for offensive options as counter grab, but remained unused. Therefore, it is not for want of capability as much as a deficit in political will that saw a slovenly response in Ladakh by India. The intensity of perception management that has followed only proves that much needed to be hidden. Therefore, it is not accretion in force capability that is necessary. It is no one’s case that India can bridge the gap in comprehensive national power between the two sides. 

The IBGs are being projected as game changers. These are task oriented forces tailored to specific objectives, in a move away from operations of corps levels formations. This rethink had been forced by the nuclear overhang on the Pakistan front and on the China front by the difficult terrain configuration and the long frontage. On the Pakistan front, IBGs are to make gains offensively, whereas on the China front they are to be suitably poised to react to Chinese nibbling by reinforcing the sectors threatened as also slicing off elsewhere for trade off later. Does this secure India?

Against Pakistan, the last military make over was with the roll out of ‘cold start’ doctrine (CSD). CSD had it that swift retribution would be exacted in case of a terror attack breaching India’s famed tolerance threshold, but keeping in mind the nuclear awing Pakistan quickly drew down over the conventional asymmetry. However, now that the conventional asymmetry is relative less (one strike corps losing its infantry elements), Pakistan, through its new concept of war fighting doctrinal innovation, can putatively take on India’s forces exercising its punitive intent.

In the doctrinal shadow boxing over last decade, it had reconfigured its conventional forces to blunt India’s conventional advantage, even while threatening - for the sake of form – India with nuclear redlines. This had deterred India with following through with cold start, even in case of Pulwama levels of terror attack, and restricted it to ‘surgical strikes’. Therefore, it is unlikely India can do more with less; so ‘punitive’ is an unnecessary bit of macho jargon. Recreation of the asymmetry that allows for a punitive strategy is therefore necessary and certainly on the cards, once the current day pivot to the China front stabilises.

As for the China front, ‘credible deterrence’ makes little sense as a phrase, since deterrence is meant to be credible, based on three characteristics: capability, intent and communication. Through two MSCs divided up into IBGs, India has given itself the capability. Its mirror deployment in Ladakh and action on the Kailash range in late August is meant to convey implacable intent, while communication is through an overt pivot to the China front, unmistakably serving notice to China against further salami slicing.

Against China, the Line of Actual Control is strongly held, though not at Line of Control levels. Reports are of an additional division sent into Ladakh that is likely to stay put long term. IBGs are to be stationed along the LAC length, to respond with alacrity to any future incursions, not only defensively - as was the case along the Kailash range - but offensively in a shorter time frame, both to cover the gaps, vast frontages and the large forward zones in some sectors, plus partaking of counter grab where feasible. This is reminiscent of deterrence by denial, making not only biting off prohibitive, but the likelihood of losing a morsel alongside elsewhere.

Whereas earlier the Panagarh MSC was being readied for this, now there are two MSCs for the role. Against a credibility yardstick, besides covid onset, commentary last year had it that India restrained from exercising offensive options as counter grab, since the comprehensive national power imbalance weighed against this. Recall practiced MSC reserves were at hand but used only for the ‘mirror deployment’ undertaken. It is not axiomatic that doubling the IBG capacity enables political will any. In fact, contrarily, the ability to carry the conflict to the enemy shall make the CNP factor kick in more significantly, reinforcing preexisting self-deterrence against escalation. In short, ‘more of the same’ is not necessarily better.

Importantly, since deterrence by definition entails influencing the adversary’s mind, it presumes that the adversary is out to do something that needs deterring. This needs interrogation in light of China restricting itself to its 1959 claim line, when it could have done more having caught Indians off guard last year. If Chinese interests are not expansive, then the good part is that there is little to deter. The bad part is that building up China as a threat which can only be militarily deterred, reduces a focus post covid on other options that could reasonably present themselves as efficacious.

The principal aspect of the new Indian strategic posture is a bid to frame the post covid possibilities. The manner the new strategies are being put out in the public domain, through sources rather than officially and upfront through the chief of defence staff mechanism or the defence ministry, makes for a surreptitious move. While the newsworthiness of the military at the time of covid wave II may seem anachronistic and intended to distract from the mishandling of the crisis, it is worth interrogating if the moves in the military sphere are the direction to go post covid.

Covid is a juncture at which India needs reappraising its strategic direction, in terms of continuing in a dangerous neighbourhood by doing the same things differently or doing something different. A shift to human security predicated on privileging the education and health sectors is warranted, implying self-evident knock-on diplomatic initiatives with neighbours and corresponding dilution in strategic postures. The new strategic posture must therefore be debated with vigour as India’s covid hit economy does not permit it to have its cake and eat it too. More than a pivot from the west to the north, India needs a pivot from traditional national security thinking to the human security paradigm.  





Saturday, 5 December 2020

 

https://www.epw.in/journal/2020/48/strategic-affairs/eschewing-and-not-manipulating-escalation.html

Eschewing and (Not) Manipulating Escalation

India’s unwillingness to tactically manipulate escalation makes its responses predictable 

and has led to strategic inertia most evident in the handling of the situation at the Line of 

Actual Control in Ladakh. The responsibility for this inertia primarily lies with the political

leadership, but the military top brass also shares this responsibility.

 

On 7 November, at the 60th anniversary observance webinar of the National Defence 

College (NDC), New Delhi, Chief of Defence Staff General Bipin Rawat expressed worries 

on the possibilities of escalation along the Line of Actual Control (LAC), saying, “border 

confrontations, transgressions and unprovoked tactical military actions spiraling into a larger 

conflict cannot be ruled out” (Pandit 2020). He had averred to similar dangers a year ago 

but in relation to the Line of Control (LoC), when he said, “The situation along the LoC can 

escalate any time. We have to be prepared for the spiraling of the escalatory matrix” 

(Times of India 2019). Rawat’s fears were expressed in the context of Pakistani border 

action teams actively supporting last-minute infiltration attempts prior to the usual winter 

respite in Kashmir. A year on, the LoC witnessed a significant spike in firing over the Diwali 

period this year.

 

Escalation dangers can be seen in Pakistan’s strike back after the Indian surgical strike 

at Balakot, launched in response to the Pulwama terror attack in February 2019. Apparently, 

Pakistan’s aerial counter was so provocative that India had prepared to retaliate. Recent 

internal political salvos between the government and opposition in Pakistan reveal that the 

Indian preparations caused the Pakistani army chief and its foreign minister considerable 

apprehension (Economic Times 2020). In the event, Pakistan pre-empted the missile strike by returning the Indian fighter pilot downed in the aerial dogfight over the LoC, short circuiting what Prime Minister Narendra Modi later colourfully depicted as could well have been a qatl ki raat (night of killing) from missile strikes (Asian Age 2019). That it would not have been a one-sided qatl (killing) is evident from Pakistan reportedly readying three times the number of missiles in a counterstrike (Miglani and Jorgic 2019).

 

As for China, its Ladakh intrusions suggest that it has a measure of India’s sensitivity to escalation. Its incremental intrusions began with cutting off Indian patrolling in Depsang sector in April, before intruding along the northern bank of the Pangong Tso in May. India, fearing escalation if it took the more robust action of either evicting the Chinese or taking equivalent territory in real time elsewhere, settled for mirror deployment, leading by the onset of winter to some 30,000 troops being deployed in Ladakh. Its occupation of Kailash range, south of Pangong Tso in end August, though depicted as a vigorous response, was limited to securing unoccupied heights on its own side of the LAC. The much-touted tactical action, which is certainly a remarkable martial feat, was at an operational cost. India lost both an opportunity and an avenue of approach to offset Chinese intrusions elsewhere.

 

Unwilling to Escalate

 

Escalation thus appears to loom large in India’s thinking, resulting in both adversaries taking advantage of India’s sensitivity. Pakistan, a relatively weaker opponent, has exploited Indian escalatory concern by restricting India’s options to lower-order, sub-conventional-level surgical strikes. At this level, there is a degree of equivalence where it seeks to give as good as it receives. Up the proverbial escalation matrix, it has matched the Indian doctrinal movement. Even as India firmed up its Cold Start doctrine of swift, conventional punishment for terror incidents, Pakistan has adopted a new doctrine, namely “new concept of war fighting.” For good measure, it brought to the fore the nuclear card in its operationalisation of full spectrum deterrence, with the tactical nuclear weapons at the vanguard and keeping a step ahead of India in nuclear warhead numbers.

 

China, for its part, has thrown the onus of escalation on to India. In its turn, India, convincing itself that the escalation advantage was with China, owing to its comprehensive national power, allowed China to get away with territorial gains. When challenged by the intrusions, India instead settled in favour of prudence over risk-taking. Even while experts argued that it is not the cumulative power that matters as much as the power that can be brought to bear at the point of contact at the end of a long line of communication in Ladakh (Menon 2020), India took the counsel of its fears and decided on talks as the route for an expansive, if unrealistic, aim of a return to status quo ante. The rounds of talks—that at last count included eight at military level, three at the level of the diplomats in the working group, three ministerial level talks, including a telephonic conversation between the two special representatives—have neither brought down troops to more hospitable altitude levels nor lessened their numbers in Ladakh.

 

Escalation concerns dominate Indian considerations on the use of force. Its military power is hobbled by self-deterrence brought on by an interpretation of escalation as inevitable and uncontrollable. Contrast this to the Pakistani and Chinese approach to escalation concerns. Pakistan has deliberately exploited the possibility of escalation. Not only did the landward surgical strikes not prevent the major terror incident at Pulwama, but the aerial surgical strikes, already debilitated by their inability to hit the target, resulted in a setback to India in the dogfight they provoked. An outcome has been Pakistani psychological ascendance, which the subsequent information war has not quite obscured.

 

Against China, over the years, India settled rather tamely in the initial stages itself, for deterrence by denial, where deterrence by punishment might have been warranted. India’s doctrinal shift in the decade prior was from deterrence by denial to deterrence by punishment with precisely such intrusion scenarios impelling the shift. The mountain strike corps was to be the vehicle. Since the financing of the strike corps progressively stalled, the army shifted last year to innovating, with integrated battle groups for a reconfigured, if truncated, corps. It innovatively flexed its muscles in Exercise Him Vijay, held in Arunachal Pradesh, even as Chinese premier Xi Jinping landed for the Chennai Connect dialogue at Mamallapuram (Peri 2019). Even so, when push came to shove in Ladakh, India was either unprepared or unwilling to shift to its newly minted and practised doctrine. This is reminiscent of India’s Cold Start doctrine lacking teeth in the wake of the Mumbai 26/11 terror attack.

 

Prime Minister Modi, in his Diwali address to troops at Longewala, explaining India’s strategic reticence, had this to say: “Today the strategy of India is clear. Today’s India believes in the policy of understanding and making others understand. But if attempts are made to test us, the reply they receive is intense” (Free Press Journal 2020). While it is true that India has been “tested” by both adversaries, it is difficult to see from recent strategic developments that India’s reply has been “intense” against either of them. India’s unwillingness to chance or inability to manipulate the escalatory threat led it to rely excessively on dialogue as substitute, even where force is manifestly warranted as and when territorial integrity is at stake.

 

Self-deterrence

 

Escalation is intrinsic to the use of force, prompted not only by the usual play of chance and the fog of war, called inadvertent escalation. This impelled the Clausewitzian concept of Absolute War or war’s tendency to spiral (Walzer 1977: 23–24), if untrammelled by political control and the constraint of friction. Consequently, it is reasonable to be wary of escalation and especially so in a nuclear dyad such as India respectively finds itself in with its two adversaries. The very first dictum put out early in the nuclear age by Bernard Brodie (1946: 76) remains applicable: “Thus far the chief purpose of our military establishment has been to win wars. From now on its chief purpose must be to avert them.” However, the danger is in over-learning, for it opens up a state to the fear of escalation, eroding its will to use force. Thomas Schelling (1967: 142–43) conceptualised the manipulation of the dangers as follows:

It is in wars that we have come to call “limited wars” that the bargaining appears most vividly and is conducted most consciously. The critical targets in such a war are the mind of the enemy … the threat of violence in reserve is more important than the commitment of force in the field.

 

Escalation is thus Janus-faced, a threat that also provides a strategic opportunity. India’s strategic problem therefore is not to allow self-deterrence to a degree that the use of force where warranted is negated substantially. Further, the collusive “two-front” threat, while in the realm of possibility, is not in that of probability. Nevertheless, it has been repeated so often that India has begun to believe it, further constraining willingness to resort to force.

 

The reticence to use force stemming from self-deterrence requires explaining, particularly for a government that projects a muscular strategic approach. A case for ‘‘strategic patience’’ is currently being argued. Minister of External Affairs S Jaishankar (2020), in his new book, lays out the narrative thus

We need to cultivate the strategic patience … Use of force must always be the considered option, never the first one …. Major nations have multiple weapons in their armoury and blunt instruments are usually the least productive. But efficacy aside, the imagery is no less significant. Those who casually advocate application of force abroad do damage. Such actions, as the instructive epic (Mahabharat) tells us, are an option reserved for imminent danger or serial offenders.

 

While this is explicable for the ‘‘application of force abroad,” its utility is somewhat diminished when a state faces loss of territory, a core characteristic, that elevate such threats to constituting an “imminent danger.” China’s record of salami-slicing over the past decade makes it count amongst ‘‘serial offenders.” Also, as the ‘‘imagery is no less significant,” Indian reluctance to use force nevertheless is at a reputational cost. To overplay its securing of the Kailash range to compensate may have had internal political utility, such as in the fig leaf it afforded the government from questioning by the opposition in the recent Bihar election campaign, but the limited significance of the operational level manoeuvre just ahead of the defence and foreign minister level talks is evident from its inability to compel China to blink.

 

The narrative that India stared down China by preventing it from chewing off more than what it already has is being played up. This year’s Vijayadashami address by the Rashtriya Swayamsevak Sangh’s (RSS) supremo, Mohan Bhagwat, said that, “Bharatiya defence forces, government and the people remained unfazed and responded sharply to this attack. This example of a strong resolution, exercising self-respect and bravery has stunned China” (Bhagwat 2020). Such self-congratulations undergrid his Jaishankar-reminiscent prescription: “Rising above China economically, strategically, in securing cooperative ties with our neighbours and at international relations” as “the only way to neutralise those demonic aspirations” (emphasis added; Bhagwat 2020).

 

Strategic Inertia

 

At the political level, the policy of dialogue has been exposed at its critical test against China. Not only was the “Wuhan spirit” vacuous, but the talks have been infructuous. The strategy of patience—to hold one’s horses till comparative comprehensive national power enables an Indian military response—ends up but as an alibi for doing nothing. The intensity of the information war that sees India manufacturing favourable military history is testimony to the fact that it knows it has something to hide.

 

Since the political level supersedes the strategic, a top-down cadence is visible in Bipin Rawat’s usual media interventions. His hyping up of escalation possibilities, including a collusive two-front threat, seemingly allow India to weigh in on the side of pragmatism and prudence. In the midst of an economic downturn and a pandemic, it would not be sensible to be off to war reflexively. But then, it is ostrich-like to determinedly avoid a war when warranted, especially since models of war are available that eschew escalation, even while manipulating it.

 

Rawat, familiar with the spectrum of war, knows that war is not necessarily Total War, else the Limited War concept would not obtain in strategic theory. Clausewitz (2008: 7) wrote that,

War can be of two kinds, in the sense that either the objective is to over throw the enemy … or merely to occupy some of his frontier-districts so that we can annex them or use them for bargaining at the peace negotiations.

 

In a nuclear dyad, only the latter, limited form of war, is possible. Indian military thinking has an exaggerated impression on the inevitability of the latter turning into the former, apparently bought into by the political level.

 

The past year revealed that either the Indian military lacks expertise in the art of strategy in terms of manipulating escalation to one’s advantage or it did not press the political level enough to allow it to prove its credentials. If in the case of the latter it was denied the opportunity, there has been no resignation from its upper ranks to prove that it pressed fulsomely to exercise its professional expertise in the national interest. Consequently, the onus for strategic inertia in Ladakh does not rest at the political level alone, but also with the brass in its compromising on its advisory and representational role.

 

References

Asian Age (2019): “Going to be ‘Qatal Ki Raat’: PM Warned Pak during Abhinandan’s Captivity,” 21 April, viewed on 30 October 2020, https://www.asianage.com/india/politics/210419/either-i-will-be-alive-or....

Bhagwat, Mohan (2020): “Address by Param Poojaniya Sarsanghchalak Dr Shri Mohan Ji Bhagwat on the Occasion of Sri Vijayadashami Utsav 2020,” RSS website, 25 October, viewed on 15 November, https://www.rss.org/Vijayadashami_Speech_2020_Eng.pdf.

Brodie, Bernard (1946): The Absolute Weapon: Atomic Power and World Order, New York: Harcourt, Brace and Company.

Clausewitz, C von (2008): On War, B Heuser (ed), Translated by Michael Howard and Peter Paret, Oxford: Oxford World’s Classics.

Economic Times (2020): “Pakistan Army Chief’s ‘Legs Were Shaking’ as Shah Mehmood Qureshi Said India Would Attack,” 29 October, viewed on 6 November, https://economictimes.indiatimes.com/news/defence/army-chief-trembled-fo....

Free Press Journal (2020): “India Believes in Policy of Understanding and Explaining: Modi,” 14 November, viewed on 15 November, https://www.freepressjournal.in/india/india-believes-in-policy-of-unders....

Subramayam, Jaishankar (2020): The India Way: Strategies for an Uncertain World, New Delhi: HarperCollins India.

Menon, Prakash (2020): “Political Will and Military Power,” Deccan Herald, 12 August, viewed on 4 November, https://www.deccanherald.com/opinion/comment/political-will-and-military....

Miglani, Sanjeev and Drazen Jorgic (2019): “India, Pakistan Threatened to Unleash Missiles at Each Other: Sources,” Reuters, 17 March, viewed on 1 November, https://www.reuters.com/article/us-india-kashmir-crisis-insight-idUSKCN1...

Pandit, Rajat (2020): “Confrontations on LAC Could Spiral Into Larger Conflict: CDS,” Times of India, 7 November, viewed on 15 November, https://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/india/lac-crisis-cant-rule-out-borde....\

Peri, Dinakar (2019): “Army’s Mountain Strike Corps to Conduct Exercise in Arunachal,” Hindu, 11 September, viewed on 15 October 2020, https://www.thehindu.com/news/national/armys-mountain-strike-corps-to-co....

Schelling, Thomas (1967): Arms and Influence, Washington, DC: Stimson Center.

Times of India (2019): “Situation Along LoC Can Escalate Any Time: Army Chief Bipin,” 18 December, viewed on 30 October 2020, http://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/articleshow/72872824.cms?utm_source=c....

Walzer, Michael (1977): Just and Unjust Wars: A Moral Argument with Historical Illustrations, London: Basic Books Classics.