https://aliahd66.substack.com/p/who-murdered-international-order?utm_source=twitter&s=w

Who murdered International Order?

Or Mystery of the Missing Body

International Order allegedly died at Bucha. It had been tottering over since the day Putin plunged a knife into Ukraine, but to the cognoscenti that knife was one borrowed from the Americans. The blood from their using the knife in Muslim lands had barely dried, when they lent it to Putin. Even as they were drawing blood with that very same knife in Afghanistan, Iraq, Libya and Syria, they set up an ambush using Ukraine as bait. Enticed, Russia took over the knife from the West and set upon Ukraine. So, for sure, we have two murderers: Russia and America. 

But, as commentators remind, both have supporters with bloody hands. While the Americans cobbled up coalitions made of up the West when they went about visibly digging the grave of International Order, the Russians have China holding their back. To the extent the West participated in twisting the knife, it is party to murder. Rumour has it that Putin got a tacit nod from China for sticking the knife into Ukraine when he went over for the winter Olympics. Though China has spooked its neighbours, it is at best accomplice to the crime, not having physically stuck a knife into International Order. Spectators are aplenty, those who might have played a part in staying the slaying. Instead, they either sat on the fence or swayed to one side. In not collectively stopping the murder, together they prospectively make the fourth murderer. 

International Order was killed since it prevented deeds the murderers wished to go about with, without feeling embarrassed about it. International Order valued sovereignty and non-interference, which the West could not see bandied by the countries of the Middle East. It backed status quo in the region based on pro-American authoritarian regimes for the sake of its local friend, Israel. This put out some locals, who ganged up and flew some planes into American buildings, killing many. 

Claiming this to be the first nail into the coffin of International Order, the Americans took the knife to Afghanistan to take out the Arab group that challenged the chaperon of International Order was hiding out. Tasting blood, they then went about reshaping Middle East in their own image, beginning with taking their feud with Saddam to the logical conclusion. They claimed Saddam first challenged International Order by an armed attack on his neighbour, Kuwait, though his armed attack on another neighbour, Iran, earlier had elicited not such complaint. Removing Gaddafi followed and then they overstretched by going after Bashar. The Iranian bomb-in-the-basement kept their knife at bay both from Bashar and Iran itself. 

The Russians – ruing loss in stature as a global power - saw their opportunity to get back at the Americans not only for Americans ambushing them in Afghanistan, but also for what followed: hara-kiri of the Soviet Union. Espying the Russians seeing an opportunity to do them down, the Americans, on their part, tied Russians down with colour revolutions. The Russians put up a fight in Georgia, pulling a Kosovo on the Americans. 

The Americans hit back, setting up Ukraine for an ambush of the Russians. With their Ukrainian client unsaddled by the Americans at the Maidan, the Russians went into Syria to steady Bashar - who the Americans wanted to unseat. Backed by China – that wanted to join the United States as superpower - the Russians punched above their weight. Putin wanted to replay the Soviet past he was loath to see disappear when as its intelligence official he saw it wither and die. 

The Russians were gratified to see the Americans wanting to leave Afghanistan. Taliban, receiving a lifeline through Pakistan, with Iran, Russia and China in the background, outlasted the Americans. The ignominy required Americans to get back at their antagonists. Against Russia, Ukraine provided an enticing killing ground. 

Having spotted an ambush site there in Russian occupation partially of Donbas and incorporation of Crimea into Russia when Yanukovich was displaced, they set about ensnaring Putin. Keeping up a din that he was about to attack, they handed him the knife they’d been wielding elsewhere. Enticed into using it, he stuck it into Ukraine, nailing instead International Order’s other vestment – preserving political independence and territorial integrity from armed attack.  

Pumping in easy-to-use, hand-held armaments for the Ukrainian army and a host of white-supremacist volunteers, the West stopped Putin from twisting the knife. Though Ukraine twists and turns in agony, it valiantly tries to snatch the knife and turn it on Russia. This keeps the two from talking peace, as each tries to bleed the other. The Americans, keeping the Ukrainians on life support and promising rehab, are waiting for Russia to implode. Unbeknownst is that their main adversary, China, is instead in their sights. A weakened Russia helps isolate China. Two birds with one stone, Ukrainians paying a price. 

And Bucha happened. Genocide made its appearance. It’s a vulture that alights when convenient, like in Darfur, but not in Iraq between the wars when 600000 children died from US sanctions. Knife wounds in Ukraine include humanitarian protection and human rights. Somalia, Yemen, Gaza, West Bank, Syria and Afghanistan did not elicit the expulsion of the perpetrator from the Human Rights Council. Libya was ousted the last time, but not the West for what they proceeded to do in Libya thereafter and for eddies across the Sahel. Neither did wars of aggression trigger off the International Court of Justice. The International Criminal Court stepped up even as the war started, and has begun investigations – happily breaking the jinx that its domain is only Africa. Certain is its proactivism cannot and will not include Israel and the West, least of all the US. That its domain does not yet include the crime of aggression is so convenient. 

Allegedly, International Order lies dead. There is the United Nations Charter in which is written up International Order. The Charter-era world order was instead first made up by the Cold War. The two sides did pretty much as they pleased, with the areas not part of the two sides serving as vent for to keep their warring cold. Once one of the two sides tired and died, the other touted International Order, even as it set about putting nails into its coffin. Resurrecting, Russia joined in nailing International Order. Rising China used International Order, without putting a check on either the West or Russia. Now it’s seeing Russia put the final nail into International Order, so that it can manufacture an International Order all its own when Russia has taken down America. The UN is missing-in-action, merely another forum in which to beat the other side. International Order turned out merely mistress of balance of power. No body found, there was no murder; only murderers left. 

 https://aliahd66.substack.com/p/chinar-corps-under-the-scanner?r=i1fws&s=w&utm_campaign=post&utm_medium=web

Chinar Corps under the scanner

Does its screening of The Kashmir Files matter?

As a tweeple, I have had a marginal existence in the cyber-world. My tweets do not normally score more than in upper double digits of hits. When inflated by a friendly boost from some or other cyber-world heavyweight, a few manage a four digits worth of hits. This piece is about one tweet that managed to get to an unfamiliar level of mid-four digits.

The tweet in question expressed my disappointment that the army thought it kosher to screen The Kashmir Files in the Chinar Auditorium at the Badami Bagh cantonment, Srinagar.

Reportedly, the movie was routinely screened for a week for movie goers in cantonments. On the surface, it is unremarkable that a movie that’s set post-Covid box-office records to have a run at the theater as its weekly fixture. Military families in remote stations must partake of national life, consuming cultural artifacts alongside the rest of the country being one way of sharing the nation’s idiom. It would be churlish to deny them their small delights – watching current hits - in a challenging environment. Besides it would be patronizing to believe that they don’t have a mind of their own and can be conditioned by a film’s well known drift. Some with multiple tenures in the Valley know enough to absorb only the relevant from the infinite open-domain resources of internet.

However, from the replies the tweet elicited, there was also a ‘screening’ – perhaps multiple - for select Kashmiris, including Kashmiri Pandits. This lends a pause.

A tweet in reply had it that ‘an endeavour was made to provide ppl (people) from all stratas (sic) of society to view a feature film which they otherwise had no means to watch!” Another reported that, “In fact, cause I’m a writer, I was politely requested to write an honest review.” An editor of Outlook, who attended a screening as part of his wider tour of the Valley, reported that the intent was to spread a ‘nationalistic message’. Since the phrase is in quotes, it may have been his uniformed minder’s words, with the minder either being from the publicity or Information Warfare Cell of the headquarters, Chinar Corps. As evidence of some success in information warfare activity, a couple of response tweets carried messaging from Kashmiris inviting their brethren Kashmiri Pandits back to the Valley, though unverifiable if this was in the aftermath of watching the film.

My original reaction to the Outlook piece informing of this bit of conveying of ‘nationalistic message’ by the Army to Kashmiris was prompted by knowledge that the film has turned out a political hot-potato. Though as admitted in an earlier post I have not watched it and have no intention of doing so, my impression of the movie is from the several critical commentaries I have read of it.

So what makes the Chinar Corps think there is a ‘nationalistic message’ in the movie that needs passing on to Kashmiris? The answer is easy: the prime minister and assorted political bigwigs have declaimed on the movie’s worth. Worse would be if the Chinar Corps itself thinks the same. Since, it’s a political movie – with the director admitting to an ‘agenda’ – the Chinar Corps’s action bears scrutiny.

The yardstick for forming a view on this has been received by the Indian Army at inception. The two extracts below help the reader make up her mind. It is interesting that there are no equally compelling writings or speeches by Indians that I can recall as easily which I could add here or use instead. Mahatma Gandhi’s words to visiting military officers, including General Thimayya, when queried on what should be their attitude to the freedom movement, comes close.

Clearly, the Indian Army has so readily taken on an apolitical character that no one post Independence thought it suitable to reiterate its necessity. Is it that this acceptance and internalization of the apolitical characteristic of militaries has made Indian Army complacent on this score that it does not reflect any more on what apolitical means in changing times? Alternatively, to refer to the apolitical identity would be to tacitly admit it is under stress, so no one wishes to rock the boat?

The two extracts below are from addresses to gentlemen cadets at Indian Military Academy, where the induction took place of intake fresh from a civilian, political, world. The colonialists wanted to alert those entering the Army to drop that part of their identity as they got into the uniform. The first is from Sir Philip Chetwode, who inaugurated the Academy on 10 December 1932. He said:

“I venture to offer you two pieces of advice. Firstly, the Indian young man of education seems very attracted by politics. May I urge you to remember that politics do not, and cannot, find any place in Army life. An Army can have no politics. It is the paid servant of the people, and is at the disposal of the Government of the day, whatever may be the political complexion of that Government. Once there is any suspicion that an Army, or any part of it, is biased politically, from that moment the Army has lost the hill, confidence of the nation who pays for it. It is no longer impartial, and that way lies chaos and civil war.”

The government at the time was a colonial one that needed the army on its side, when the freedom movement was getting into stride, so the emphasis on being apolitical is well taken. On Independence, in his address, General Roy Bucher, the British Commander-in-Chief of the Indian Army, retained till General Cariappa then engaged in chasing Pakistani raiders out of Kashmir was elevated to the highest rank, in his address in May 1948 said along similar lines:

“What then are hallmarks of a good officer – the outward and the visible signs? Firstly, I would put Devotion to the Service. The interest of the Army must come first in our thoughts and in your actions all the time. Remember that the Army and indeed all the Services, are the servants of the Government in power at the time and the political complexion of a particular Government makes not the slightest difference to the fact. As soldier you are not concerned with politics. There is nothing wrong in your having political opinions and in your expressing them with moderation in private conversation but that is a very different matter to expressing political opinions in public or allowing such opinion to influence your actions in any way. No army which concerns itself with politics is ever of any value. Its discipline is poor, its morale is rotten and its reliability and efficiency is bound to be of the lowest order. You have only to look at certain foreign armies which are constant mixed up in politics to realize the truth of what I say. It follows, therefore, that the Army has never the slightest right to question the policy of the Government. Implicit obedience to the orders issued by the Government is essential and only in this manner with the interests of the country be fully served. And so you see that devotion to the Service implies devotion to the Country as well.”

So does the Chinar Corps get away? It needs proving that theirs’ is not an apolitical act, a rather subjective proposition about which all manner of opinion can be mistaken as sound.

Chinar Corps is not on an island. It is well aware that there is a political cultural churn towards majoritarianism, with the ruling party as the flag-bearer. This has not superseded the erstwhile liberal-secular democratic system in which citizenship is of equals, as yet. The ruling dispensation for its part has exerted every sinew to shift the goal posts. The Kashmir Files is a right wing artifact to advance the political agenda and ideology of the right wing. No wonder it found appreciation at the highest level.

Importantly, Chinar Corps, being the lead in counter insurgency in the Valley and conversant with the period the movie covers, best knows the departures from the reality made in the movie. That the movie has uniformly shown all Kashmiri Muslims as repulsive should alert it to the suitability or otherwise for it to sponsor its viewing in Kashmir.

Indeed, it is arguable there is no need for the movie to have figured in the routine bill of fare for entertainment of troops and families at that military station housing the headquarters of the nation’s lead counter insurgency security force dealing with the country’s most significant national security problem. By all means off-duty troops can access any entertainment option of their choice, but considering that they are at the spear end of this national endeavour at ending the insurgency, their attitudes are significant. Inappropriate conditioning and exposures are avoidable.

If injected with hate – as the movie has reportedly done viewers in rest of India – how it impacts their dealing with the center of gravity of insurgency – the people – can reasonably be negatively conjectured. This makes professionalism of Chinar Corps suspect, since it reveals an absence of client orientation: the principal clients being the hapless Kashmiris on whose body politic and bodies, insurgency and its counter is playing out.

That military members are entitled to political opinions is their individual right. They don’t cease being citizens, only are citizens with added responsibility. However, none can use the vantage of an appointment to further a political position. In this case, Chinar Corps handle has the distinction of putting out the lone tweet wishing the prime minister on his birthday in an obsequious, unmilitary way. This is compounded by Chinar Corps’ act under scrutiny here, which if unremarked sets up a trend.

It can be argued that routine ‘A’ and Information Warfare matters don’t distract the commanding general, who takes a ‘wide-angled view’ instead – as was the leadership model favoured by General Arjun Ray for counter insurgent leadership at the operational level in his Kashmir Diary. A wide-angled view implies a political sensitivity and knowledge there-from of boundaries. Such sensitivity is not self-evident from this case. Apprehension of the reverse being the case cannot but surface, in that, the leadership may not be averse to propagating the content the movie projects.

A critique of the position taken here can well be that by making this an ‘issue’ politicization of a triviality is to the detriment of the force. It is itself politicization, the factor the article riles against. As – hopefully – demonstrated above, viewing of the movie either by Kashmiris or by counter insurgents does nothing to advance counter insurgency aims. In fact, it sets the clock back, not by harking back but by upending the reality in doing so. Neither is truth nor history trivial.

Trivialising both is instead to the detriment of the force. By all means, manipulating the truth is part of statecraft and the ‘internal’ – military members - are a legitimate target of information operations. They can be exposed to a sanitized version of the reality and preserved from counter narratives. However, in this case, there is no call for them to be exposed to demonization of Kashmiris, considering their role. The enemy is not the people. Chinar Corps’ action does not lend confidence that was merely holding up a mirror to Kashmiris, since the image is a distorted one, contorted by the political leanings of its creator. Are we to believe Chinar Corps was persuaded by the movie?

The Chinar Corps action provide yet another peg to make the wider point that though the military may not be interested in politics, but politics - as it is turning out - is interested in the military. Politics provides the context to a military’s role and its showing on its mandate. Changes in political culture potentially have knock-on changes in strategic culture and organizational culture. Therefore, the military will not be spared the political turn to India, just as no Constitutional institution has.

As a self-regarding institution with a national – as against a partisan and parochial – focus, it must maintain its apolitical character. If its self-regulation is found wanting in this, it is liable to be alerted by the attentive public, civil society and contending political forces. These have a right – if not a duty – to intercede for the sake of the Republic. Believing that their doing so is politicization, as against what they are alerting against, is instead to be political. At any rate the military cannot be a participant in the tumult – such as in this case by providing a forum for the movie – lest the military - a political novice - end up being (ab)(mis)used by a side or other.

Note: It is for another post whether and to what extent being apolitical in a circumstance of political change favours the change and is therefore to be political.

https://aliahd66.substack.com/p/whats-holding-up-the-chief-of-defence?s=w

What’s holding up the Chief of Defence Staff?

Narendra Modi’s ‘deep selection’ travails

The latest set of military appointments has been announced. So, what’s holding up the announcement on the most-awaited appointment: the Chief of Defence Staff (CDS)? News reports have it that it is axiomatic that the officiating Chairman Chiefs of Staff Committee (CCOSC), General Naravane, will be made its Permanent Chairman, being appointed CDS, and in his place Lt Gen Pande, will step up from being Army Vice Chief to its Chief.

Since General Naravane retires month end, there is no hurry; both Naravane and Pande already being familiar with their briefs. Naravane wears one of the CDS’ three hats – the other two being CDS itself and Secretary Department of Military Affairs; while Pande was brought in to Delhi on retirement of the then Vice Chief, General Mohanty, end January. Therefore, there is little sense in speculating on the next incumbents of the two posts. Even so, this begs the question why does the government wait longer, when it can wrap up the mystery right now?

There were reasons – at a stretch - for it to wait for the announcement this long when it could well have made the announcement mid-December itself when Naravane was appointed officiating CCOSC – filling one of the three pairs of shoes of General Rawat, who died in an unfortunate helicopter accident mid December. However, reports have it that it was not interested in making any of the three senior most army officers then – Generals Mohanty, Joshi and Shukla - Army Chief, if it pushed Naravane up to take over Rawat’s chair.

Not that the government need have waited out these three generals to retire before making its moves. It has reportedly adopted a policy of ‘deep selection’ for higher military appointments and was, in any case, within its rights to appoint anyone following due procedure. Its hesitance could mean it has ditched the deep selection policy, bandied about to cover up the distasteful manner Rawat was made Army Chief over heads of two of his perhaps more able seniors – Bakshi and Haris. There was a vile whisper campaign launched prior to undermine the frontrunner – General Bakshi.

The controversy over the superseding perhaps dissuaded the government this time round from rocking the boat. Therefore, it has held its horses this long, even though keeping the nascent CDS chair vacant for some four months does little for the institutional credibility of the CDS office. In fact, it shows the government undercutting yet another of its policy moves – creation of the CDS – that it likes to take much credit for. Since policy consistency does not appear hallmark of the government - well known for its policy twists and surprises - it is not impossible that the Appointments Committee of the Cabinet – that incidentally has all of two members (prime minister and home minister) - can yet pull a rabbit out of its hat.

That it has not been able to pull out the rabbit so far owes to its sensitivity to the political inclinations of prospective incumbents to higher military office. A case to point is that of General Rawat. Rawat’s proximity to National Defence Advisor Ajit Doval not only owed to a shared ethnicity, but also to like-mindedness. Rawat repaid the faith the regime reposed in him by dutifully mouthing its ideological wares, besides obediently implementing the military side of its policies. The latter is only superficially the way things ought to be. Obedience is fair, but ‘haan mein haan milana’ (“Yes sir, three bags full, Sir!) at the policy-making stage is seldom good. Such obedience springs from the former, like-mindedness. The problem is that there is then a tendency to fall in line with the drift of the deliberations, or worse, modifying one’s input by guessing what’s the expectation is and aligning with it.

Rawat’s falling in line with the government’s Kashmir policy is illustrative. Not only did he set the stage for the voiding of Article 370 by a diligent conduct of Operation All Out prior, but also ensured the military’s participation in strangulation of the Kashmiri voice thereafter. It is easy to see that the Kashmir problem has merely been kicked down the road. True, the explosion expected has not occurred, but that does not mean – as information war will have it – that all will remain hunky dory in Kashmir. Such a consequence should have been input into the government’s decision. The government’s assumption that it has ‘solved’ the Kashmir problem should have had to reckon with input from the army to the contrary. As head of the lead counter insurgency force and repository of expertise on military security, Rawat should have taken recourse to a democratic exercise of his advisory function. The costs of this are not merely in the future in Kashmir, but already apparent in China’s walking into Ladakh and our interminable counter deployment there. That Rawat fell in line with the government’s ideological agenda in Kashmir owed to his political predisposition, evidenced – as pointed out earlier – by his several interventions backing the regime on matters essentially political and out of the military remit.

This is learning of sorts for the regime as it consolidates its ideological agenda. It has transformed political culture. It is seeking to likewise influence strategic culture. Its cheerleaders have already announced that its surgical strikes by land and air and showing up China at Doklam and in Ladakh have duly transformed strategic culture. Organisational culture of the military is next in line. The prime minister has required a turning to ancient texts and traditional wisdom for organizational inspiration. Sanskritic lexicon from shastras, signifying the switch from India to Bharat, India to New India, is abroad, with the foreign minister leading the way devoting a chapter in his book for the learning from Mahabharata. The prime minister’s call has been dutifully echoed by the Army Chief and formerly uniformed strategic community members, with none asking for inclusion of the entire spectrum of historical inheritance to figure, including the medieval period – which the prime minister presumably wishes is wholly appropriated by Pakistan. The modern period – even if colonial - also has its value for the military, considering its institutional roots lie in the period. From this is clear the government does not need a professional going about his business nor one merely pliable, but a believer in its project transforming India in a particular, majoritarian way.

Does this hold up the prospects of Naravane and Pande? Not that it should matter 50 years on, but Naravane’s schooling was in a right wing affiliated school. However, Naravane has elsewhere expressed his belief in Constitutionalism, unremarkable at any other time. The media was quick to pick a gap between his approach and that of Rawat, when it probed him on Rawat’s implied criticism of the anti Citizenship Amendment Act (CAA) protestors. As is his wont, Naravane was correct in his answers. He has most recently in his Army Day Message emphasized the Army’s ‘secular credentials’, foolhardy in the context of the times.

As for Pande, he has nothing to show by way of virtue signaling in terms of right wing affinities for the government to pick him. He also is an Engineer, a combat support arm that has not managed to run the gauntlet all the way to the Chief’s post so far. Its most eminent product, General Bhagat, was pipped at the post by Indira Gandhi, tweaking the Army’s proverbial line up so that an ethnic kin Kashmiri Pandit, General Raina, would be better placed to take over. Should the government to pick Pande – having seen three seniors of his seniors off into retirement – it would make him beholden to it. This is a useful gimmick, quite like when it persisted with its predecessor-government appointed Chief, General Dalbir Singh, despite his feud with a predecessor army chief and ruling party stalwart, VK Singh.

If the government has not exercised its choice as yet, it is possible that it is still at deep selection of sorts, looking out for virtue signaling, not only from the brass but from the retired lot as well. It is easy to spot a trend on this. The military adviser it appointed in the National Security Council Secretariat is a general who in service made the right noises on the CAA protests. This is of a piece with the nature of its non-military appointments as well, valid also for retired officer receipients of its patronage. One way to ascertain this is to see the cringe-worthy Youtube mouthings of recipients of largesse. Not that these officers are not capable, but the nature of the regime is such that capability and achievement is insufficient to land a sinecure to continue in public life.

A simpler reason could be that the government is looking out for another CDS, putting paid to Naravane’s chances. This rules in a non-Army CDS. The popular view is that the initial couple of holders of the CDS post should be Army men since the military is Army centric. Riding for the Air Force is that since the principal task that Rawat has left unfinished is the way ahead on jointness, an Air warrior might be best for the post since he would know how to cope with the Air Force’s reservations on jointness. Those plugging for the silent Service might have it that being neutral between the Army and Air Force argument on jointness, an admiral might best fit the bill. For those recently retired who fancy their lot, Youtube and Twitter are the right spaces to spot virtue signaling on this count.

However, to wait into the fourth month is inordinately long. If Naravane was not to be CDS, the government did not really need to be so sensitive to his reaction, withholding the announcement. At best he would have resigned, causing a momentary embarrassment for the government without a dent in its electoral chances in Uttar Pradesh, then beset with election fever. So the holdup seems to be not so much for professional or pliable incumbents, but committed ones. It’s to the military’s credit that there is no virtue signaling going on as was the case earlier, when Rawat as Chief and CDS set the tone. It’s not known if Naravane has cracked a whip, but it has made a difference enough to make problematic the regime’s deep selection.

That it is taking this long only goes to prove the premium put on deep selection, understandable in the run up to 2024 national elections. Hypothetically, the incumbents of the two chairs might willy nilly end up momentarily the most significant men in India if those elections were for some reason to go wrong for the regime.

Maybe the regime needs reminding that it need not be so careful. The military ethic was best articulated by General Bucher, Commander-in-Chief, Indian Army, at the Indian Military Academy in May 1948, when he said: “No Army which concerns itself with politics is of any value…It follows, therefore, that the slightest right to question the policy of the Government. Implicit obedience to the orders of the Government is essential and only in this manner will the interests of the country be fully served.” Since this is a colonial legacy, does the regime wish it be discarded? Just as Indira wanted a committed bureaucracy, maybe New India’s military needs a change to the apolitical ethos of its military to one suitable for a Hindu India?

Be that as it may, under the circumstance, both Naravane and Pande are the front runners to respective post, as should be the case. Therefore, it is beholden for the government not to play musical chairs and get on with the announcement without demur. That is continues to be hesitant only serves to unhinge the brass from the straight and narrow, to not only being but also  broadcasting their availability for the regime’s purpose. This is anti-institutional and to the extent the government is responsible, it is cutting the branch it sits on. A military in disarray cannot be put back by regime favourites. 

https://aliahd66.substack.com/p/taking-kashmiri-pandits-for-a-ride

Taking Kashmiri Pandits for a ride

Dissecting Mohan Bhagwat’s mouthings

Rashtriya Swayamsevak Sangh (RSS) head honcho, Mohan Bhagwat, intoned, “I have a feeling that the day is very near when the Kashmiri Pandits (KP) will come back to their homes and I wish that day comes soon.” Coming to grips with feelings and wishes is a first step in diving into details how to return KPs to the Valley. One way is by unsustainable force majeure, and the other, durable returns with dignity to a meaningful welcome.  

It is possible that Bhagwat has in mind the ‘chronology’ being rolled out in Jammu and Kashmir (J&K). Having voided Article 370 of any meaning, Amit Shah is inclined to hold elections to the toothless assembly. The delimitation exercise is done with, elections are slated for autumn. A detailed written critique by the opposition – the Gupkar Alliance – has it that the delimitation was designed assist with ushering in, for the first time, a Bhartiya Janata Party run government to Srinagar. This end can be assured by tacit and timely hints by Shah of a return to statehood but only once a Jammu origin, preferably Hindu, chief minister is in place. Article 371 protections, popular with the Jammu support base, can be offered. Once the new dispensation is there – democratic by all appearances – Bhagwat’s feelings and wishes can be materialized.

Bhagwat was speaking in reference to the film, The Kashmir Files. The film reportedly depicts not only peoples’ participation in the forcing the exodus of KPs from the Valley, but also shows the terrorists, including Kashmiris, evicting those who stayed, or returned, through massacres. Therefore, any durable returns of KPs would involve defusing the threat from these two interlinked quarters.

The first – people – is relatively easy to tackle. Even at the outset of the militancy, there was considerable Kashmiri public support for KPs. That the film elides this shows that it does less than justice to truth. In fact, it merits Bhagwat’s praise precisely for this deliberate omission. Kashmiris of all political hues – mainstream to separatists - have been consistent in wanting the return of KPs. Islamists may have reservations, wanting homogeneity for the Valley to buttress their position on a Pakistani affiliation for Kashmir. Some may tactically link the return of KPs to the State easing up or making political concessions. But there is no shade of public opinion directly opposing returns.

 This can be suitably leveraged for societal backing for the initiative. In any case the Kashmiri ‘bluff’ needs being called. If and since conditions for returns do not obtain, it is easy for Kashmiris to pretend to be holier-than-thou and voice sweet nothings on wanting returns. If so, then this bluff can be called in rolling out the initiative. Even so, it is infeasible that the movie’s depiction of Kashmiris is designed to endear them any to their KP brethren. In fact it makes returns problematic, deliberately scratching at scabs to place reconciliation out of reach.

The second – terrorists – comprise two entities: local homegrown militants and foreign –Pakistani - terrorists. The statistics on incidents reveal that for the past three years local militant deaths outstrip those of foreign terrorists. Alongside, infiltration levels are acknowledged - by no less than the Army chief - as negligible. Thus, foreign terrorists present are at best residual and are being wrapped up by and by. Pakistan is internally beset currently, besides has not quite stabilized Afghanistan in the way it might have hoped on the departure of the Americans. For now, the Pakistanis and Indians are in the same boat that fortuitously sailed by with the Russian invasion of Ukraine.

Thus, the threat perception – though flogged out of force of habit and to buttress vested interests – is benign. It has been further defused by the two sides, India and Pakistan, reportedly maintaining back-channel links. That the Line of Control ceasefire remains robust and Pakistan passed up an opportunity to embarrass India over the recent non-event of the misfired missile, indicates that the back-channel is effectual. It has given India the reassurance to transfer elements of a strike corps facing Pakistan, and of Rashtriya Rifles formations in J&K, to Ladakh for enabling its mirror-deployment there against China. 

As for the local militants, the statistics reveal their short life-spans. When their bodies are picked up after brief firefights in which they do little damage to security forces, very little hardware is recovered. This further proves that Pakistan has been behaving itself of late. Earlier Pakistan did so to see the backs of the Americans from Kabul in face of Indian persuasion of their strategic partners, the Americans, stay on. Now, Pakistan continues the policy of disengagement from Kashmir, in part to stabilize its northern front and placate India to do well by Kashmiris.

Consequently, militancy has little to do with Pakistan, but much to do with what locals perceive as India’s suppressive template. Managing the aftermath of the Article 370 required tens of thousands of additional central police deployed. Besides, the pressure mounted by Operation All Out and its successor operations - that since Burhan Wani’s death account for some 1000 militants – generate backlash. This is the outcome of disenfranchisement and humiliation felt by youth, and not quite result as the info-war spin emanating from Badami Bagh has it: that youth are being motivated by influencers colourfully phrased as ‘white collar terrorists’. Collective trauma cannot but find expression in such pushback to actions of a suppressive State.

In Bhagwat’s imagination, the speedy return of KPs in such a milieu may be through appropriate upping of the security template. The democratic veneer will allow for harsh measures. The central police forces are already in place. That militants are able to mount sporadic militant actions, such as grenade throwing and selective killings as of off-duty policemen, suggests that a return to original habitations within the Kashmiri populace may not be possible. The targeted killings last year of Kashmiri Pandits can be taken as messaging on this count.

Even if threat of murders keeps KPs from their original habitations, there is a second model of return: to separate colonies constructed for the purpose. Those that have been constructed have proven that this is a failed experiment. Some who returned to stay over were unable to access work places and sustenance last year after the targeted KP killings.

This brings to fore the third option: that of a separate enclave for KPs within the Valley. This is the Israeli model of settlement. Now that land purchase has been thrown open to non-Kashmiris from the mainland – apparently 24 purchases have already been made under the scheme – this policy can be upped with more land usurped in protectable enclaves. KP numbers would require boosting since KPs are unlikely to want to return to a conflict zone. Only those in refugee colonies may chance it; not so those who have resettled placidly elsewhere. The Sainik colonies rumoured can potentially populate these enclaves. It borrows a page from the Pakistani book wherein Pakistan Occupied Kashmir and Northern Areas have been subject to an invasion of settlers, including recipients of government largesse for services rendered in the military. The West Bank model can then be expanded at will by the elected government in place. This will put paid to any Article 371 dreams.

Thus, Bhagwat’s feelings and wishes can yet see light of day. As to whether this is helpful to KPs is another matter. What is certain is that the only manner in which KPs could have returned much earlier and could yet return is not on the cards. When even the liberal oriented Manmohan Singh government, carrying forward the legacy of the Vajpayee government, on both the internal and external fronts, did not succeed over its two terms, it is impossible to visualize the Narendra Modi government changing its spots. Modi has already taken the first steps in this direction by using the Ukraine War to suitably distance himself from the Americans, whose anticipated criticism of forthcoming initiatives can be suitable ignored.

Peace studies literature and successful practice elsewhere has practicable ideas on how to bring about returns. These can be adapted to conditions in Kashmir. Kashmir itself has the spiritual and moral resources that can be deployed in effecting reconciliation as prelude to a return with dignity for KPs. Transitional Justice and Conflict Transformation are two subject areas that have ample scope for application in Kashmir. The reopening of the case against Bitta Karate is precursor. However, this cannot be one-sided. It would require landmark cases of human rights violation on part of the State to also be probed. Reconciliation through mutual truth telling, catharsis from forgiveness, reparations, compensation etc need being operationalised.

This would require appropriate change in security arrangements. The removal of Armed Forces Special Powers Act in the North East is a model for J&K. The security indices south of the Pir Panjal are stark. Sporadic incidents such as last year of a set of terrorists getting lucky and accounting for 10 members of security forces is a threat, but a manageable one in terms of putting protocols in place for army aid to civil authority. However the center of gravity is in the Valley. Here the visually oppressive presence of security forces will have to be removed. The under-supervised central police and the over-empowered special operations group of the police would have to be suitably tempered.

Portents of the latter are not in sight, seen in the resignation of the former policeman who headed the notorious force from his billet as adviser to governor for contesting in the upcoming elections. If the ideas is to install him in power, given his pro-ruling party affinities and being from the Jammu region, this puts paid to both the political outreach necessary and the supportive security rejigging recommended.

Clearly, if the boosting of box office prospects of The Kashmir Files by powers-that-be is any indicator, all that alone can see KPs reinstalled in the Valley with dignity is not quite on the cards. Earliest, it will have to await the national elections of 2024, when and if Modi is dethroned. Till then, the regime will play the KPs along, for their electoral worth, using them also as another stick to beat Kashmiris and India’s Muslims with.

Notably, the movie is not so much about the past in its Kashmir bashing, but is to condition the audience to the forthcoming depredations on both Kashmiris and Muslims. The Kashmiris will be subject to Bhagwat’s unarticulated model of return of KPs, while Muslims elsewhere in India are put on notice of a like fate as KPs for yet-to-unfold, Covid-interrupted initiatives as National Register of Citizen’s and National Population Register. It’s going to be a rough ride till 2024 in which KPs must reckon with Kashmiris and India’s Muslims as fellow, beleaguered travelers.