https://m.thewire.in/article/security/the-questions-the-prolonged-encounter-at-anantnag-raises
The questions the prolonged encounter at Anantnag
raises
As the encounter at Gadol near Anantnag in Kashmir drags on past its 100th hour, it begs the question why two terrorists remain holed up in a thicket for so long after inflicting four casualties, and possibly a fifth, on India’s premier counter insurgency force, the formidable Rashtriya Rifles (RR).
Clearly, at the
outset of the operation, the RR was in its element. The colonel commanding the RR
battalion accompanied by the major commanding an RR company were off tracking
the terrorists down, along with the conveyer of the intelligence, a deputy
superintendent (DSP) of Kashmir police.
Both the Army
officers were recent respective recipients of the Sena Medal (Gallantry). In
line with Army tactical leadership ethos inspired by the adage ‘the role of the
Infantry is to close with the enemy, capture of destroy him,’ they vied for the
lead. In the event, they were felled,
along with the DSP, by the initial volley from the terrorists.
Since the
terrorists are advantaged by the forested redoubt, a methodical operation is currently
on to eliminate them. The RR is leveraging firepower, as it closes the loop of
the cordon in a glacial maneuver designed to deny the terrorists any further
terrain advantage. Yet, it is curious the RR is taking this long.
It’s possible
the RR was lured into an ambush by planted intelligence. That the initial
volley of shots accounted for a police officer shows that a red-hot lead was
being followed up, post-haste.
This possibility
is lent credence in the claim of The Resistance Front - which is but a morphed Lashkar-e-Toiba
outfit - that the ambush was to avenge the recent assassination of a terrorist
leader across the Line of Control.
Apparently,
Indian intelligence operations have drawn blood, accounting for some of the four
terrorist leaders killed though in midst of their sanctuary across. Close as
the ambush was on the heels of the latest assassination, the timing lends their
claim plausibility.
On the other
hand, the incident may well have been an opportunity ambush. Sometimes things
do go awry in operations, not necessarily due to complacence but – as the doyen
of strategists, Clausewitz, has it – the play of Chance.
As all who’ve been in a firefight well know, the hobby of the capricious God of
War is to play dice with lives.
While there is
no second guessing the tactical level leaders on the ground, the operation does
appear unduly prolonged. It flies in the face of the adage, ‘there is no
obstacle for the Infantry.’ The RR is but Infantry.
It is
inconceivable that the troops are not straining at the bit and operational
level commanders so risk averse as to continue reining them in for so long,
unless acting on instructions.
Has the military
leadership been instructed by its political master to hold back for
longer?
The incident,
purveyed on television, seized national attention. It had the potential to put
a question mark on the Narendra Modi government’s Kashmir policy.
Did the regime
unfurl the ‘Mission Accomplished’ banner too soon?
Clearly, the
problem in Kashmir and of Kashmir has not gone away, even if Article 370 has
long been laid to rest. The encounter busts the myth that tourist footfalls are
a measure of success of counter insurgency.
Mindful of this
and ever ready to use military achievements to its advantage, has the Narendra
Modi regime, as is its wont, turned a seeming setback into an opportunity? Hitherto
it has lost no opportunity to snatch electoral dividend even from a reverse, be
it Pulwama and Balakot or Doklam and Ladakh.
Nationalism has
been deftly stirred up, with the cremations – and a burial - of the brave-hearts
reframing the operation on social media. Another operation, accounting for three
terrorists on the LC elsewhere, has timely evened the score. With elections
nigh, nationalism is a potion to stir into the communal pot.
A prolonged
operation was also necessary to wipe away the aftertaste of the images of
Narendra Modi being feted at the ruling party headquarters for his stewardship
of the G20 summit. The moment was reminiscent of Modi persisting with the
shooting of a television episode at the Corbett National Park though informed
of the tragedy at Pulwama. While saffron petals were showered on him at the
Bhartiya Janata Party headquarters, the nation’s defenders received a shower of
a different kind.
Modi’s national
security minders know well that tactical operations can have strategic effects.
Cognisant, they can be credited with manipulating the news cycle, denying the
Opposition a handle, while preserving the Modi’s strongman image.
The unthinkable
underside is if the military has lent itself as instrument to this end.
